APBRmetrics

ESPN reports "Caesars Sportsbook" has these win totals predicted.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/320 ... -win-total
I imagine these numbers will change as the season approaches.
Also showing last season's wins, adjusted to an 82-game schedule. There were 2 listings for Kings and none for Rockets; so I assumed the Hou prediction is the lower one.
East-West disparity drops from 2.6 to 0.6
Total is less than 41.0 per team -- so bet Over?

Win totals short by a lot more here with pointsbet, unless I miss added. East in accompanying tweet.

https://twitter.com/rgiss11/status/1426 ... 84928?s=20

Do they want people to bet the over?

They have made it less appealing to bet the under.

That would seem smart for them, if you think regression to the mean, at least for the top half of teams.

But look at the individual numbers.


And change going forward. If early money too enthusiastic for overs?

I haven't done the historical research. Someone probably has.

Things that could be said IF Vegas is presumed accurate with these lines:

No super regular season performances expected.

Little pressure from below on top 10 conference seeds.

Expected declines from last season outnumber improvements 18 to 12.

Might be some maneuvering to avoid Clippers if Kawhi comes back.

Pretty clear bottom 4.

6 improvements by about 5 wins or more. 5 declines by at least that much.

Popovich barely clears Nelson for all-time most wins by end of year.

Sacramento needs a trade and / or a firing to change trajectory and maybe take step into playoff contention.

We'll see if I can have a bit of a bounce back this season

Curious to see if Simmons gets dealt prior to the season.

Preliminary projections. Some look a little wild to me, but I'm not sure how much I want to tweak. Simmons/Sixers the biggest swing point for me, currently projecting no trade and him not reporting - probably not the most likely scenario. Hope it just gets done so I can get something down there.

Nets 62
Bucks 58
Heat 57
Hawks 50
Celtics 46
Bulls 42
Pacers 41
Sixers 39
Knicks 38
Raptors 37
Hornets 34
Wizards 33
Cavs 26
Pistons 22
Magic 16

Jazz 55
Lakers 54
Suns 52
Warriors 51
Blazers 50
Mavs 49
Nuggets 48
Grizzlies 43
Pelicans 42
Kings 41
Clippers 38
Spurs 37
Wolves 30
Rockets 19
Thunder 18

I don't know what to say at this point.

So I'll say good wishes.

Most I can ask for, best wishes to you and any others participating as well

Thinking about entering, will probably save someone else from finishing last.
Any good (or even okay) spots for playing time estimates?

538 and various fantasy sites project minutes:

https://www.google.com/search?q=2021-22 ... .15076j0j7

Basketball-Reference and other stat sites might post such this week.

Anyone is welcome. Jump in if you want to. Encourage folks you know to participate if you wish.

Free to revise til first game is played but not after. Slight delayed entry possible with accepted excuse and no concerns of unfair advantage.

Use one decimal max (please) or not for win totals. Check that you add to 1230 wins. Errors on that will be handled by scorekeepers. For consistency / ease of data entry and based on last year, make your list alpha by team city 3 letter abbreviation if possible. Check that scorekeepers accurately recorded your numbers near start of season.

Scorekeepers appreciated.

Predictions sets published elsewhere by start of season can be added by request or I guess scorekeeper interest, though whether they are contest entries is debatable. Some Vegas related betting baseline is usually included. Which? Scorerkeeper choice or recommend and the group can react.

Talk about methodology or challenging cases is welcome.

Scoring method likely to be two way as scorekeepers have done in past- average error or r2. Pay attention to the one you prefer.

If season is abbreviated leaguewide actual records would be scaled to 82. Stray team cases? Scorekeeper can decide, with community input. Probably scaled to 82.

One entry per person unless you have a strong reason for pursuing / presenting multiple methods. Designate one as your primary contest entry.

Will be putting out an updated one prior to the season, seen enough in pre-season and enough updates on Simmons/Kyrie to be worth it I think.

Edit:

Looking at it it'll be mostly Sixers/Thunder up (I had Shai only playing half a season again, I hope that's not the case). And Nets/Heat down (I'd had in my mind that the Heat had better looking depth than they seem too, not sold on their bigs especially). Other more minor adjustments, Suns/Lakers essentially flipping places. Will get updated in the next few days.

Any good (or even okay) spots for playing time estimates?

538 and various fantasy sites project minutes:...

538 lets you look up individual players. But not teams?
@NBADynastyADP only gives minutes to 10 or so players per team.

Where are the Pelton minutes?

Would expect 538 to have team projections / page based on past.

And here they are as of this morning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... edictions/

Click a team to see player details included projected minutes.

I'm back, baby!

Here's my projections. If they change before the season starts, I will post a note in here.

https://craftednba.com/projections

dtkavana wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 4:45 pm I'm back, baby!

Here's my projections. If they change before the season starts, I will post a note in here.

https://craftednba.com/projections

Seems pretty low on the Nets, predicting injury/rest issues for KD/Harden?