APBRmetrics

http://www.82games.com/dennis.htm

This article is almost 2 decades old.

It is pretty basic but worth re-reading what the minimums were.

What's changed about the requirements, if anything? What changes or additions are worth trying? Laying on more about position, role, salary to the level of a 7-9 main playoff rotation would be useful. Doing it in abstract and / or to situation by current teams.

I'll share some thoughts below. Others can add if they wish.

This isn't the main standard to apply for a future championship but fwiw 14 of the players in the top 100 for number of All-NBA selections over career are active and 14 on All-Defense selections. Current recognition matters far more over past. But these guys might be at least worth consideration even if past.

Top 5 now by All-NBA first team includes 2 players / teams still alive in post-season, 1 that was expected to be and 2 young (1 with some success to conference finals the previous season, the other did not get out of play-in).

Embid or Tatum, yeah, title contenders. Title winner yet to be achieved. Probably at peak or very close. Now is the time.

Giannis, at peak, past or still has upside?.

Luka and Shai, at peak or still have upside? Luka has Kyrie... or not. Shai's sidekick? Maybe it is Holmgren but basically unknown how good or synergistic that will be.


Believed to be contenders without a currently designated top 5 guy?

Lakers with 2 past designations and playing well and meeting the at least one top 10 on defense criteria.

For Warriors, Curry wasn't first team but could still be considered as such. Draymond still has the designation, whether or not it is appropriate now.

Suns have a player they might claim to be in or close to top 5 in Booker and Durant might still meet the lead or sidekick qualification but both are offensive not defensive stars.

Nuggets have Jokic. And Gordon. And Murray.

Clippers have Kawhi and PG... sometimes.

Heat have Butler and Adebayo.

Kings have Fox and Sabonis. Enough? Probably not.

Cavs have Mitchell and Mobley.

Griz have Morant and Jackson.

7 others could try to make a case, but I am not going to put them up right now. Ignoring the bottom 9 for now.

I have previously surveyed teams for +5s and +3s. Can be on BPM, RAPM, Darko or whatever. Other cutoffs could +1, 0 and / or -1.

In abstract, what to "go for" as top design principle ) criteria?

Criteria 1: 2 +5s (or near)?
C2: 3 or more +3s (or near)?
C3: 4-5 over +2?
C4: 6-8 over +1?

There are other possible principles but let's look at top 13 teams by these marks. I'll do it by Darko this time.

I did this almost 2 months ago:

Crow wrote: ↑Thu Mar 30, 2023 5:49 pm A very average team will have a minutes qualified +3 or better on BPM, a qualified +2 or better, a +1 or better and 1 non-minutes qualified at one of these levels. Good teams will have guys higher than these minimum performance levels or more of them or both.

Nuggets have the first 3 but not a 4th. All their superiority over average by BPM is entirely based on Jokic's level.

Celtics exceed at all of the first 4 and have 3 more. So do Griz.

Bucks have all 4 and exceed on first 3 but have no more.

So 2 with great depth, 2 with just average depth but a really great player (far over +6 BPM).

The last 7 champions have averaged 1.3 really great players and 5.7 total over +1. 2016-17 Warriors and 2019-20 Lakers had 2 really greats. Only last season's Warriors missed on the qualifying best player (Curry at just +5.8).

Celtics and Griz barely achieve on best player but have the depth. Bucks and Nuggets clearly miss on quality depth. Some concern for all.

Only 2019-20 Lakers did not meet both criteria of a great player and a bare minimum of 4 qualifiers over +1 (had 3).

Quality out to 7th or 9th man may matter a bit but has not been reviewed.

The dynamic duo thread bears on same topic.

Sixers have a +5 and a pretty near. Then 2 more over +1. So pretty much meeting criteria 1, not anywhere close to meeting criteria 2, 3 or 4.

Celtics have a +5 but Brown is not that close at +3.1. Celtics are also close to achieving on criteria 2 or 3; but, strictly speaking so not fully meet criteria 1, 2 or 3. Just short of C4 as well. But close on all 4 criteria is notable and very different than Sixers.

I'll do more later, but Darko app is not cooperating for me at moment.

In one of Morey's interviews, he states the championship contender criteria as:
1 of the best players
1 of top 15
1 of top 50

If we take one of the best as top 5, and use this season's DARKO as ranking then it comes to:
1 of 4.8+
1 of 3.9+
1 of 1.7+

Pretty similar to what you have

By Darko, T Harris is 69th, Maxey 74th.

By playoff BPM, Harris 78th, Maxey 57th. Better among minutes qualified but... is it enough?



If the best aren't surefire then more have a better chance.

Right. If we strictly interpret Morey's own criteria, the 76ers wouldn't be a championship contender

Crow wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 6:38 pm By Darko, T Harris is 69th, Maxey 74th.

By playoff BPM, Harris 78th, Maxey 57th. Better among minutes qualified but... is it enough?



If the best aren't surefire then more have a better chance.

This is a great take. Basically either Morey's criteria is too strict or there's a lot more parity this year (or both). I think you're right on this one. Definitely more parity this year.

I also remember Morey talking about his internal championship prediction % model and how the prime-GSW years they would have close to 50% of winning the championship (predicted from start of the regular season). I think he mentioned this year the best teams are in the 10-15% range.

BRef still has Celtics with 38% chance at title. Not sure when it was last updated. Will need an update tomorrow night.

Sixers big two: Primary ballhandler and center.

Heat big two: a primary ballhandler and center.

Nugget big two: a primary ballhandler and center.

Lakers: a primary ballhandler and center.

Celtics: Common answer- 2 primary ballhandling wings. Different in that view, though Horford and R Williams rate higher on DRIP than Brown.




Thunder: could be primary ballhandler and center.


Are centers "very important" or "least important"? Looks like important to me.

Still facing sorting issues on Darko and don't want to hunt manually, so shifting to DRIP.

Bucks: Not close on criteria 1 as Giannis slipped quite a bit and no other is a high #2. Do not qualify on C2 but reasonably close. Meet C3 with 4 over +2. Do not meet C4. So first team so far to fully meet one of 4 criteria.

Heat do not meet any of 4 criteria and not at all close on any. Same for Cavs and for Nuggets. Griz fully meet C3. Mavs do not meet any of 4 criteria but are somewhat close to C1 with Kyrie. Warriors, Heat, Raptors and Knicks do not meet any of 4 criteria and not at all close on any. Same with Timberwolves and way moreso with Thunder and Kings. Clippers only close on C1. Same for Lakers.

So 7 of these reasonably close on at least one criteria. Only Griz and Bucks fully meet 1 specified on spec criteria. 9 not close at all, including at 3 conference finalists.

Either Sixers or Celtics win or it will be a team not close on the proposed criteria. Obviously in the moment quality of play is a potential way to rise above projection / prediction, especially if competition is "not qualified' or does not play well or as well. There are lots of scenarios.

Offense and defense usually both need to be sharp and the mix is important.
The lead playmakers and Cs are first (or at least early) and last links of each of the chains.

How is the offensive and defensive talent of champions generally arrayed by position and location in the rotation? A layer below the overall impact ratings. More to review and think about.

The first criteria was listed as 2 +5s. It may be appropriate to lessen the expectation on the second guy to +4 or +3.5. Maybe. The intention was to find what is enough to wina championship. Not to gather candidates, but do want to find winners.

Perhaps my other criteria should have a bit of slack too. Probably should check how close recent winners were. Later.