The list of trades worth tracking is longer now. Results by many different measures will each be interesting to review at some point in future.
I might look at RAPM factors to make guesses now and / or later. Highly doubt I'll see that in mainstream or "leading" media. Doubts about accuracy could be raised about any / all approaches including eye test / "experience" based judgment. Some to many be less accurate than RAPM factor based analysis. Will try to look / compare later.
Lillard only helped by about +1 on RAPM factors last season The presumed starting lineup is +12, almost all because of Giannis and Brook. Lillard most needed assistance is with making free throws. 3 positive factors, 5 negative estimates.
Celtics next. Jrue... 4.7 times as good as Lillard on last season RAPM factors. Mr. Horst must not have checked or cared about that.
Yes context matters and 3 yr is probably better than 1 yr. and I'll check that later. But that is a huge, previously undiscussed difference.
Jrue Holiday is near identical to Derrick White on 7 factors, usually a tick less positive. But better on opponent rate on making free throws.
Assuming Holiday D White Brown Tatum Porzingis, that lineup is about +13. Slightly better than Bucks after the trades. By RAPM factors, Bucks probably had the advantage last season.
This is a aggregated view of the rough quality of major roster changes this off-season — not accounting for non-resigned free agents — compiled by @AndrewDBailey as of July 20, using Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) Wins.
Personally, I don’t trust the EPM values as much, especially on defense, ever since the metric was updated before the 2021-22 season, but it’s a good starting point to think about things.
Minute imbalances likely distort comparisons of the columns, with the incoming column often involving more or less than 240 team minutes per game unless adjusted are made for unnamed players.
I don't like EPM at all, numbers smell so wrong to me when looking at their leaderboard.
Regarding the moves for Milwaukee and Boston: the Bucks will likely be a top three offense, but might well be a bottom ten defense. I don't expect them to be appreciably better.
Boston have absolutely nailed it. Porzingis had a near career year last year, whilst Smart needed to make way for the superior White anyway, addition by subtraction and then some. Picking up Jrue is just icing on the cake. I expect the Celtics to come out of the East and into the finals relatively easily if they remain healthy enough.
3 yr RAPM is not in sync with 1 yr and has Lillard and Holiday both better across careers but Lillard moreso. Holiday is still the clear leader on latest 3 yr though.
Anunoby, great team +/-. Lowest usage since rookie season. Lowest FT rate, assist rate and turnover rate. Second lowest 3pta rate. Lowest defensive rebounding rate. Highest BPM but still under +2. Is he going to be happy with winning and the money in that reduced offensive role? It is not what he said be wanted.
Quickley and Barrett. Quickley's BPM fell a point to just over +1 because of D-BPM. Barrett's, up 3 to career high near +2 because of hot 3pt shooting, highest FTA rate, huge TS% improvement and defense.
.traded tm2 min e484 PER WS/48 BPM tm1 Min e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Barrett Tor 606 1.38 17.3 .096 0.0 NYK 766 1.05 14.2 .070 -2.2
Quickley Tor 606 1.03 14.2 .077 -1.2 NYK 720 1.25 16.9 .148 2.3
Achiuwa NYK 540 .73 13.6 .119 -1.9 Tor 437 .98 15.0 .054 -1.6
Anunoby NYK 500 .94 15.1 .141 2.4 Tor 900 .66 12.6 .058 -1.6
Siakam Ind 463 1.59 20.2 .138 3.4 Tor 1354 1.43 18.8 .113 1.3
B Brown Tor 307 .49 11.4 .052 -3.8 Ind 981 .65 12.1 .067 -2.4
Rozier Mia 299 .84 12.3 .051 -1.9 Cha 1065 1.28 19.0 .085 2.1
Bagley Was 235 1.25 19.5 .110 -1.5 Det 478 1.08 18.0 .105 -1.2
Muscala Det 152 .22 9.5 .065 -1.7 Was 338 .04 7.6 -.005 -6.3
Nwora Tor 119 .93 15.7 .111 -0.7 Ind 183 .66 12.1 .023 -4.2
totals 3827 1.02 15.3 .100 -0.4 7222 1.01 15.5 .083 -0.6
While these summary stats don't offer the same assessments, they typically agree that a player's numbers have gotten better or worse. Here, WS thinks Achiuwa has done much better in NY -- he just went to a better team.
