APBRmetrics

Posted: **Tue Apr 14, 2026 11:25 pm**

Heat got off to hot start but ended in 10th seed that nobody else was anywhere close to or wanted.

Herro dead last on raw team +/- on court and next to last for on / off.

Posted: **Tue Apr 21, 2026 7:01 am**

Contender spending patterns by quality tier and VORP return:

https://x.com/bballstrategy/status/2046 ... 99511?s=20

Posted: **Sun Apr 26, 2026 5:23 pm**

In the regular season, team margin-of-victory (mov) can be estimated by advantages in TS%, Reb/G, and TO/G.
Margins in these 3 quantities are (tm-opp) TS% and Reb/G, (opp-tm) TO/G.

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factor:    135    .78   1.33
stat diff: TS%    Reb    TO

Example: Atlanta team and opponent averages.

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pts/G  oPt/G     TS%  oTS%     Reb  oReb    TO/G   oTO
118.0  115.6    .577  .574    43.4  45.1    14.2  16.1

Margins are therefore:

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mov    TS%    Reb    TO
2.4   .003   -1.7   1.9

Doing this for every team, multiplying these margins by the factors shown above, I get an avg error of 0.58.
Errors are probably mostly due to incomplete counting of team rebounds; also unequal # of possessions, techs, jumps, etc.
In any case, I split each error into thirds and added it to the team expected MOV to come up with a list of suggested MOV-points added via each stat. Which is to say, team strengths and weaknesses.
Atlanta wins on turnovers.

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mov    tm     TS%    Reb    TO
11.    OKC    6.4    -.9    5.5
8.3    SAS    5.1    3.6    -.5
8.1    Det    2.4    3.7    2.1
7.7    Bos    3.6    4.0     .1
6.3    NYK    1.7    3.8     .8
5.2    Hou    1.5    6.5   -2.8
5.1    Den    5.3    1.1   -1.3
4.8    Cha    2.4    5.7   -3.2
4.1    Cle    1.8     .9    1.4
3.3    Min    3.0     .2     .2

mov    tm     TS%    Reb    TO
2.8    Tor     .2    -.6    3.2
2.4    Atl     .6   -1.0    2.8
2.3    Mia     .4     .0    1.9
1.8    LAL    2.2    -.3    -.1
1.5    Phx   -1.0    -.2    2.6
1.1    LAC    2.7   -1.4    -.1
.6     Orl    -.8     .3    1.2
-.2    Phl   -1.0   -1.4    2.2
-.3    Por    -.9    2.6   -2.0
-.6    GSW    -.1   -1.1     .7

mov     tm    TS%    Reb    TO
-4.5   NOP   -3.0   -1.7     .2
-5.2   Chi    -.9    -.8   -3.4
-5.5   Dal   -2.0   -1.7   -1.7
-6.0   Mem   -3.2   -3.5     .7
-6.2   Mil    -.4   -2.9   -2.9
-8.0   Ind   -3.0   -3.6   -1.3
-8.4   Uta   -5.1   -1.7   -1.5
-9.9   Brk   -5.8   -2.9   -1.3
-10.0  Sac   -6.8   -2.0   -1.1
-11.9  Was   -4.6   -4.7   -2.6

Aside of Charlotte and their penchant for blowout wins, Lakers and their blowout losses, we see 3 starkly contrasting tiers of solid playoff teams, play-in teams, and lottery teams.
Detroit with the best weakest stat.

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