Player movements, injuries, and now Covid/ protocols, are perhaps equal in importance to 'team talent' as a predictor. If you follow the rumors and the injury reports, and you can effectively quantify their impacts, you may have the best 'data'.
Teams that are doing much better than expected -- NYK, Phx, Utah, Cha -- have been relatively healthy and/or deep. You can project everyone will be unavailable for some 20% of games; but when a team stays abnormally healthy, they over-achieve.
The liminal sheet seems to be broke, so here are current errors based only on b-r.com
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
vegas 5.29 6.98 dtka 5.70 7.74
EExp 5.33 6.74 trzu 5.78 7.82
cali 5.39 7.10 KPel 5.86 7.90
shad 5.43 7.29 DSM1 5.91 8.00
bbst 5.44 7.25 lisp 6.17 8.33
avgA 5.51 7.48 538R 6.32 8.38
Crow 5.55 7.60 emin 6.63 8.48
TeRa 5.58 7.33 538E 7.65 9.46
. EBPI 8.84 11.05
Everyone on the left is within a couple good days of vying for the lead.
UPDATE May 2 (still b-r.com projections)
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
vegas 5.23 7.00 dtka 5.67 7.79
EExp 5.25 6.74 trzu 5.73 7.88
shad 5.31 7.32 DSM1 5.88 8.05
cali 5.36 7.17 KPel 5.93 7.95
bbst 5.40 7.28 lisp 6.09 8.39
avgA 5.49 7.53 538R 6.27 8.41
TeRa 5.49 7.35 emin 6.60 8.51
Crow 5.55 7.62 538E 7.71 9.54
. EBPI 8.92 11.11
On avg,, contestants got .03 better last night; but the range was from .11 improved (shad) to .07 worse (KPel and 538e)
May 3:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
vegas 5.25 7.01 trzu 5.78 7.90
EExp 5.27 6.76 DSM1 5.88 8.07
shad 5.35 7.34 KPel 5.92 7.96
cali 5.38 7.18 lisp 6.13 8.41
bbst 5.44 7.31 538R 6.26 8.44
avgA 5.51 7.54 emin 6.62 8.50
TeRa 5.51 7.37 538E 7.71 9.54
dtka 5.63 7.82 EBPI 8.82 11.09
Crow 5.63 7.66 .
May 4 -- abrupt change at the top.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.26 6.79 trzu 5.78 7.94
vegas 5.34 7.05 DSM1 5.84 8.10
shad 5.35 7.36 KPel 5.96 8.01
bbst 5.45 7.33 lisp 6.12 8.45
cali 5.45 7.25 538R 6.30 8.46
TeRa 5.51 7.39 emin 6.62 8.53
avgA 5.54 7.58 538E 7.80 9.59
Crow 5.66 7.69 EBPI 8.77 11.12
dtka 5.70 7.85 .
May 6
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.31 6.86 trzu 5.87 8.03
vegas 5.38 7.13 DSM1 5.89 8.15
shad 5.40 7.43 KPel 6.11 8.09
cali 5.50 7.31 lisp 6.20 8.53
bbst 5.50 7.41 538R 6.36 8.53
TeRa 5.59 7.45 emin 6.77 8.60
avgA 5.60 7.65 538E 7.94 9.68
dtka 5.69 7.89 EBPI 8.77 11.16
Crow 5.71 7.75
May 7:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.23 6.83 Crow 5.80 7.79
vegas 5.31 7.10 DSM1 5.83 8.16
shad 5.35 7.41 trzu 5.84 8.01
cali 5.43 7.27 KPel 6.02 8.08
TeRa 5.50 7.43 lisp 6.24 8.50
bbst 5.51 7.40 538R 6.37 8.55
avgA 5.57 7.63 emin 6.68 8.55
dtka 5.66 7.86 538E 7.98 9.71
. EBPI 8.75 11.17
Update May 8
Yesterday, the espn experts had their best numbers of the season.
Today Crow, Pelton, and 538E have their worst.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.28 6.90 Crow 5.90 7.89
vegas 5.32 7.17 DSM1 5.93 8.23
shad 5.44 7.49 trzu 5.94 8.09
cali 5.50 7.35 KPel 6.15 8.16
TeRa 5.56 7.51 lisp 6.32 8.57
bbst 5.61 7.49 538R 6.44 8.64
avgA 5.66 7.72 emin 6.76 8.62
dtka 5.77 7.93 538E 8.10 9.81
. EBPI 8.88 11.24
I believe caliban has the best chance of taking this, among our gang. Shadow is closer, but all his guesses are too close to EExp.
The Bucks are projecting to win 46.5 , but we know they won't; they will win 46 or 47 or another integral number of games. If we toggle their projection to 46.0, this moves cali .03 closer to the lead.
If we similarly downgrade Cle, Was, Por -- and expect a strong finish from Det, Dal, OKC, Sac, and SAS -- then cali wins this thing by a hair.
It's unlikely all 9 of these 'battleground state' teams will cooperate. But with tanking, you never know.
(No, I haven't checked the schedules to see if all these are really possible.)
May 9
Nobody cooperated
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.31 6.98 DSM1 6.00 8.29
vegas 5.41 7.24 trzu 6.05 8.16
shad 5.55 7.57 KPel 6.23 8.25
cali 5.64 7.44 lisp 6.40 8.65
TeRa 5.65 7.58 538R 6.57 8.74
bbst 5.72 7.58 emin 6.80 8.66
avgA 5.77 7.79 538E 8.21 9.92
dtka 5.89 8.00 EBPI 8.99 11.31
Crow 5.93 7.95
A bad night for most, on avg .10 worse than yesterday. Caliban suffered by .14
Crow, bbst, KPel, both 538's with worst numbers of the season.
May 10
EExperts running away with it.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.26 6.97 DSM1 5.95 8.23
vegas 5.40 7.24 trzu 6.05 8.14
shad 5.53 7.56 KPel 6.21 8.22
cali 5.60 7.40 lisp 6.34 8.61
TeRa 5.63 7.57 538R 6.51 8.74
bbst 5.67 7.57 emin 6.80 8.65
avgA 5.75 7.76 538E 8.19 9.96
dtka 5.85 7.97 EBPI 8.96 11.29
Crow 5.88 7.90
May 12
Teams mostly have 3 games left.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.35 6.92 DSM1 6.05 8.20
vegas 5.48 7.20 trzu 6.14 8.06
cali 5.58 7.37 KPel 6.24 8.19
shad 5.63 7.52 lisp 6.29 8.51
TeRa 5.65 7.50 538R 6.46 8.71
bbst 5.73 7.52 emin 6.79 8.59
Crow 5.83 7.82 538E 8.12 9.98
avgA 5.85 7.70 EBPI 8.93 11.30
dtka 5.89 7.91
May 13
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.39 6.94 DSM1 6.12 8.22
vegas 5.47 7.21 trzu 6.14 8.08
cali 5.64 7.40 KPel 6.29 8.22
shad 5.65 7.54 lisp 6.30 8.53
TeRa 5.66 7.51 538R 6.53 8.73
bbst 5.73 7.53 emin 6.78 8.59
avgA 5.87 7.72 538E 8.15 10.03
Crow 5.90 7.86 EBPI 9.01 11.37
dtka 5.94 7.94
538E making a late push for the cellar! Tanking?
May 14
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.41 7.01 DSM1 6.13 8.28
vegas 5.48 7.27 trzu 6.16 8.15
shad 5.66 7.60 lisp 6.34 8.60
TeRa 5.68 7.58 KPel 6.35 8.31
cali 5.73 7.48 538R 6.59 8.81
bbst 5.75 7.60 emin 6.82 8.64
avgA 5.88 7.79 538E 8.21 10.10
Crow 5.90 7.89 EBPI 9.00 11.42
dtka 5.98 8.00
The top 2 have really separated from the rest of the field.
Worst numbers of the year for cali, trzu, KPel, and the 538 bro's.
From May 3 to May 12, the avgA went from .25 off the lead to .50 out.
May 16
One day left in the regular season.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse . avg err rmse
EExp 5.41 7.04 DSM1 6.16 8.32
vegas 5.53 7.30 trzu 6.19 8.18
shad 5.69 7.63 lisp 6.43 8.64
TeRa 5.70 7.61 KPel 6.44 8.38
bbst 5.80 7.63 538R 6.67 8.82
cali 5.82 7.57 emin 6.84 8.65
avgA 5.91 7.83 538E 8.31 10.16
Crow 5.92 7.87 EBPI 9.11 11.43
dtka 6.03 8.03
Worst average numbers of the season. Several are in free fall.