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Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Wed Apr 06, 2022 6:26 pm
by Crow
Congrats to upcoming winner. And any others relatively pleased with performance
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2022 12:03 pm
by Mike G
While there are scenarios which would tighten this race, none are likely to change the lead.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.55 8.24 lisp 7.18 8.72
cali 6.79 8.50 emin 7.19 9.29
shad 6.87 8.68 pewb 7.46 9.67
5.38 6.91 8.50 bpmW 7.73 9.95
avgA 6.97 8.71 WShr 7.84 9.61
dtka 6.98 8.79 21re 7.95 9.15
vegas 7.08 9.01 2021 8.18 10.14
Crow 7.12 8.88 eWin 8.51 10.11
. perW 8.95 10.42
trzu leads at exponent from near zero to over 3
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 1:31 pm
by Mike G
According to their season point differential, the Celtics "should have" won 8 more games this year.
The Suns' MOV would normally have them winning 5 fewer games.
So without some luck -- or whatever determines who wins/loses the close ones -- they'd not be separated by 14 games in the standings, but by a single win.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/le ... anced_team
Uta, SAS, and Ind should have 7 more wins than they do. Por and Chi should have 6-7 fewer.
Here's a side-by-side with the traditional "wins based" rankings on the left, and Pythagorean-expected wins on the right.
"Luck" is attached to the columns at left, and is simply the difference (pyth-minus-projected)
Code: Select all
err. proj "luck" err. pyth
trzu 6.59 .65 5.38 7.05
cali 6.80 .47 dtka 7.10
shad 6.91 .26 emin 7.14
5.38 6.92 .13 lisp 7.15
avgA 7.01 .36 Crow 7.15
dtka 7.05 .05 shad 7.17
vegas 7.10 .23 trzu 7.24
emin 7.12 .02 cali 7.27
Crow 7.12 .03 vegas 7.33
lisp 7.19 -.05 avgA 7.37
pewb 7.55 .49 pewb 8.04
bpmW 7.84 .49 21re 8.07
WShr 7.87 .25 WShr 8.11
21re 8.07 .00 bpmW 8.33
2021 8.23 .15 2021 8.38
eWin 8.62 .26 eWin 8.88
perW 9.04 .25 perW 9.30
avg. 7.47 .24 7.71
trzu looks like the 'luckiest'; lisp is least lucky; and without the luck, it's a much closer contest, 1 thru 10.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2022 4:36 pm
by Crow
Interesting.
By Pythagorean, I would be ahead of the 3 leaders based on actual wins. One of the lowest on "luck".
But "luck" isn't necessarily all luck and the contest wasn't for net rating. It could be though.
Or with regular season subject to various forms of luck and somewhat devalued by load management and indifference, maybe there could be a contest for the playoffs. Would probably involve and / or reward different methods, maybe more subjective, maybe more decisively influenced by luck in a shorter framework.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 8:30 am
by tarrazu
Need to consider a team's actual Win Pct % as well, although net rating is still the main driver. I'd imagine Chris Paul's teams have often been "lucky" relative to their net rating.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:44 am
by Mike G
tarrazu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 10, 2022 8:30 am
I'd imagine Chris Paul's teams have often been "lucky" relative to their net rating.
A quick look indicates this is so -- aside of his Clippers teams, which were a bit short on wins.
A discrepancy between expected (from MOV) wins and actual wins isn't really just about winning the close games, but also how blowout scores happen. A 35-point loss not only puts an L in your record but indicates you "should have lost" one that you won.
The Bulls this year were a very average team that somehow has a 45-36 record. They've won 3 games by 20 points or more, and they've lost 10 such games. In games decided by 3 or less (or OT), they are 5-5.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:15 am
by Mike G
Final results:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse avg err rmse
trzu 6.49 8.22 lisp 7.19 8.70
shad 6.83 8.62 pewb 7.52 9.64
5.38 6.87 8.52 bpmW 7.79 9.92
cali 6.89 8.50 WShr 7.86 9.60
vegas 6.97 8.92 21re 8.04 9.17
dtka 7.00 8.85 2021 8.17 10.09
avgA 7.01 8.70 eWin 8.63 10.10
Crow 7.13 8.86 perW 9.00 10.43
emin 7.13 9.26
The average of all these MAE hit 7.55 yesterday, worst of the entire season.
Congrats to tarrazu, who won decisively at exponents 1 and 2.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:48 pm
by sndesai1
Ranked on RMSE and including some entries not in the official contest.
The 538 number looks completely different between ours - I have them performing extremely poorly while you have them near the top. Mine are pulled from Oct. 18 - any chance yours are a different date?
Code: Select all
Team RAPTOR Elo
ATL 51.0 48.0
BOS 49.0 40.0
BRK 50.0 52.0
CHA 33.0 34.0
CHI 38.0 40.0
CLE 25.0 26.0
DAL 49.0 45.0
DEN 50.0 48.0
DET 24.0 29.0
GSW 36.0 43.0
HOU 20.0 25.0
IND 44.0 40.0
LAC 48.0 52.0
LAL 42.0 45.0
MEM 43.0 44.0
MIA 44.0 42.0
MIL 56.0 57.0
MIN 40.0 34.0
NOP 47.0 38.0
NYK 43.0 45.0
OKC 19.0 22.0
ORL 24.0 24.0
PHI 53.0 52.0
PHO 53.0 55.0
POR 48.0 48.0
SAC 32.0 35.0
SAS 36.0 38.0
TOR 41.0 35.0
UTA 54.0 52.0
WAS 38.0 41.0
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:05 am
by Mike G
Yeah from page 1 of this thread, it looks like I got a 538 prediction on Oct. 14, and I don't know which of those it was (Raptor, Elo)
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 10:49 am
by DarkStar48
Mike G wrote: ↑Fri Apr 15, 2022 8:05 am
Yeah from page 1 of this thread, it looks like I got a 538 prediction on Oct. 14, and I don't know which of those it was (Raptor, Elo)
Yeah. It’s the RAPTOR version. Link:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wi ... ba-season/
Teams were still cutting/signing guys onto rosters before the start of the regular season on Oct. 19 (e.g., Avery Bradley — GSW to LAL). The most prominent change between the 538 RAPTOR projection from Oct. 18 compared to Oct. 14 was the news of the Zion Williamson injury.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:59 pm
by Mike G
So I recorded the 538Raptor prediction for the Pels at 44 wins.
After " the news of the Zion Williamson injury" they figured 47.
And Elo guessed 38.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:36 pm
by DarkStar48
I am not sure where you got the 44 predicted wins.
However, the 538 RAPTOR projection on Oct. 18 with all the changes (including roster modifications as well as the Zion absence) shifted about 1-2 wins across many teams, and then the Pelicans went down from 48 to 47.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 9:21 pm
by Mike G
I got the 538 predictions from the same link you posted above. Of course, it's changed since Oct. 14 2021
Code: Select all
538 10.14 10.18 Elo
Atl 50 51 48
Bos 46 49 40
Brk 49 50 52
Cha 37 33 34
Chi 41 38 40
Cle 27 25 26
Dal 49 49 45
Den 50 50 48
Det 24 24 29
GSW 40 36 43
Hou 22 20 25
Ind 43 44 40
LAC 47 48 52
LAL 40 42 45
Mem 45 43 44
Mia 44 44 42
Mil 56 56 57
Min 39 40 34
NOP 44 47 38
NYK 44 43 45
OKC 19 19 22
Orl 23 24 24
Phl 52 53 52
Phx 51 53 55
Por 47 48 48
Sac 33 32 35
SAS 34 36 38
Tor 38 41 35
Uta 55 54 52
Was 39 38 41
Cha and GSW were downgraded by 4 wins in the interim, Chi by 3.
Bos, NOP, and Tor were kicked up 3. That is all I know about it.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2022 11:04 pm
by DarkStar48
Ah, I see what happened here. The first 538 RAPTOR model output released on Oct. 14 (technically run on Oct. 13) had the Pelicans with 48 predicted wins. Sometime on Oct. 14 in the morning, they must have included the “Zion update,” which altered the team totals league-wide by 3-5 wins and reduced NOP’s record to 44-38. Finally between then and Oct. 19, other roster and playtime changes (speculated Zion return?) simulated the Pelicans back up to 47.
Re: 2022 team win prediction contest
Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2022 5:37 pm
by Crow
So I am going to use DARKO even more going forward.
Recently did a twitter thread checking trends on about 40 players on DARKO. No one commented on any of course.
RAPTOR and LEBRON were nothing special here and EPM was quite weak. I may still check them but I am not giving them the same respect as DARKO at this time.
BPM may still be a quick draw casual reference for NBA but I probably should pull from elsewhere. Maybe the craftedNBA blend for descriptive use. Will probably still use for college players but may look more into some of the other college metric options I am less familiar with.
Porpagatu and Adjusted Net Rating may be decent college metrics. But probably mostly stick with BPM for now.
May be too late to retrofit DRIP. Probably should track next season, if still available.
BPI did well but I am probably not going to look for it.
Can / will anyone make a comparable to above "luck" assessment on DARKO? That would be very important imo.
addendum:
Fwiw, By sndesai1's list, I tied for 2nd least 10+ win misses.