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Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:05 pm
by Mike G
eminence wrote:Primary goal is always to beat vegas, secondary is to beat the average, so feeling great about how things are going so far
There are at least 2 entities known as "average".
The one I'm listing among the entries is a "contestant" whose guess for each team is the avg of what 15 apbr people guessed -- does not include vegas, 538, or 2019-regressed.
That "avg." entry briefly ranked on top of all individuals and only now slipped to 7th place.
I'm also tracking the mean/avg error of all 18 entries, which now stands at 6.30. It's the "avg avg error".
Thanks to a couple of us who are way worse than that number, 12 of you are better.
That 6.30 is also the best we've been in about a month. Peak/low was Nov. 30 (6.13), and unsurprisingly the entry known as
avg. also had its best day, at 5.64
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 3:21 pm
by Mike G
liminal space has consolidated their lead, now at the top in exponents from 0.8 to 2.2
Several of us have the lead outside that range. Here are top-5's near the middle of each leader's exponent range:
Code: Select all
e = 0.20
shad 3.71
emin 3.77
gold 3.98
Crow 4.03
.538 4.06
0.50
emin 4.46
gold 4.64
Crow 4.68
bbst 4.72
lisp 4.74
1.50
lisp 6.27
cali 6.35
gold 6.42
bbst 6.48
trzu 6.53
4.0
trzu 9.5
cali 9.7
lisp 10.0
bbst 10.3
gold 10.4
10.0
cali 14.3
trzu 14.3
Mike 14.5
Rd11 15.0
lisp 15.4
15.0
Mike 15.4
cali 16.0
trzu 16.0
Rd11 16.5
lisp 17.2
Excelling in exponent <1 means you have a lot of close guesses, and the big misses don't haunt you.
At high exponent, it's all about having the least-bad miss(es).
EDIT Jan 7
A good night for everyone, as Celts, Bucks, and Thunder lost. Most would also approve of wins by Orl, Phl, Was, SAS, and Sac.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
lisp 5.33 6.9
bbst 5.41 7.2
gold 5.41 7.1
cali 5.43 7.0
Crow 5.48 7.4
avg. 5.48 7.3
emin 5.61 9.0
sndi 5.72 7.8
trzu 5.79 6.9
.538 5.82 8.0
RyRi 5.83 7.6
shad 6.01 8.1
dtka 6.35 8.1
vegas 6.38 7.8
KPel 6.44 8.2
ncs. 6.47 8.5
Rd11 7.69 9.1
Mike 8.43 10.1
Best numbers of the season for bbst, gold, cali, emin, sndi, 538, RyRi, dtka, vegas, and ncs.
trzu leads at e = 2.02+
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 09, 2020 12:39 pm
by Mike G
Everyone but Crow and myself showing best numbers of the season:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
lisp 5.19 6.8
bbst 5.24 7.1
gold 5.27 7.0
cali 5.37 6.9
avg. 5.40 7.3
Crow 5.41 7.3
trzu 5.43 6.7
emin 5.48 8.9
RyRi 5.62 7.5
sndi 5.63 7.7
.538 5.63 7.8
shad 5.81 8.0
vegas 6.11 7.6
dtka 6.19 8.0
ncs. 6.42 8.4
KPel 6.43 8.2
Rd11 7.62 9.2
Mike 8.34 10.1
On avg, we are .78 better than on XMas Eve: Team projections have been trending toward our expectations:
Code: Select all
LAL 62 Mil 66
LAC 55 Bos 55
Hou 54 Mia 54
Dal 53 Tor 54
Den 52 Phl 50
Uta 51 Ind 47
OKC 45 Orl 41
SAS 38 Brk 36
Por 37 Det 33
Phx 34 Chi 32
Mem 34 Was 29
Sac 34 Cha 28
NOP 33 NYK 24
Min 33 Cle 24
GSW 22 Atl 21
update Jan. 18
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
lisp 5.67 7.4
Crow 5.71 7.9
bbst 5.73 7.6
emin 5.83 9.3
gold 5.85 7.5
trzu 5.90 7.3
cali 5.95 7.4
.538 5.97 8.2
avg. 6.01 7.7
RyRi 6.16 7.9
shad 6.24 8.3
sndi 6.25 8.3
vegas 6.57 8.0
dtka 6.58 8.4
ncs. 6.82 8.8
KPel 6.97 8.6
Rd11 7.86 9.5
Mike 8.72 10.4
On avg, we are .038 worse since previous update. Leader error is worst since Dec. 15
The 30 teams have sort of stratified into equal thirds: 10 that we all* guessed low on; 10 that we all* guessed high on; and 10 whose projections fall within the range of our guesses.
* indicates that there was
1 outlier guess that currently nails it.
Average over/under-achievement:
Code: Select all
low tm mix tm hi tm
13 LAL 2 Phx -4 * Sac
12 Dal 1 Uta -4 Was
11 Mil 1 Den -5 * SAS
9 Mia 1 Cle -5 Chi
8 Tor 0 Cha -5 Det
7 OKC -1 Phl -6 Por
7 * Mem -2 Orl -7 NOP
6 * Ind -3 Brk -7 * Min
6 * Bos -4 Hou -7 Atl
5 * LAC -4 NYK -26 GSW
* exceptional predictions:
Code: Select all
Mem 37 ncs
Ind 49 Crow
Bos 54 Crow
LAC 56 emin
Sac 32 dtka
SAS 37 emin
Min 31 Crow
Orlando is a special case, too. All our guesses were in a narrow range from 46.5 (Pelton) down to 41 (Crow). Their projection is now for 40.8 wins, so they belong in the 3rd group. But they're one of 7 errors within 2 of our consensus avg.
Sixers are a rather bipolar case. They're headed for 50.4, our avg guess was 51.6, and nobody guessed between 48 and 52.
11 said >52, and 4 say 48 or under.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:39 pm
by Mike G
Abrupt change at the top:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.67 7.9
lisp 5.84 7.5
trzu 5.88 7.3
bbst 5.95 7.7
gold 5.98 7.6
emin 6.05 9.3
cali 6.06 7.5
avg. 6.11 7.8
.538 6.18 8.4
RyRi 6.26 8.0
shad 6.37 8.4
sndi 6.43 8.4
dtka 6.54 8.4
vegas 6.71 8.1
ncs. 6.99 8.8
KPel 7.27 8.9
Rd11 8.03 9.5
Mike 8.88 10.5
In 12 games last night, lisp benefitted (relative to Crow) by a NYK loss,
Crow meanwhile was on the good side of an Ind win, Phx loss, Bos win, Min loss, Mia win.
So Crow went 5-1 vs lisp in outcomes that matter vs their predictions. And 18 of 24 outcomes had no effect.
On avg, only half of game results can matter to you, vs any other individual or the whole field -- half the time, you are favored by both teams winning or both losing, so the benefit is null.
But even at this point in the season, one day can make some big swings in the standings.
Conference imbalance has gotten more severe, with West teams now projecting to an avg 42.4 wins vs 39.6 in the East.
This is getting close to our avg of 43-39; yet our overall errors have gotten .59 worse on avg., since 2 weeks ago.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:28 pm
by eminence
Always appreciate the updates Mike!
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:07 pm
by Mike G
Crow and I had the most outliers and hi/low predictions to start the season. Crow's are mostly working out, and mine are mostly not.
Showing + and - for highest or lowest (or tied) predictions in the field, ranked by how much he's kicking my ass.
Code: Select all
tm Cr proj Mi
Mia 53 + 53 - 36
Tor 53 + 55 - 38
Bos 54 + 55 - 43
NYK 30 24 + 41
Atl 25 - 22 35
Mil 61 + 68 52
Min 30 - 30 37
Det 36 33 + 42
Cle 15 - 23 + 37
Ind 50 + 50 45
Mem 27 36 - 22
OKC 33 48 - 29
Orl 41 39 45
NOP 37 - 34 40
Chi 34 32 37
Hou 51 51 54
Phl 52 50 54
SAS 44 38 45
Brk 40 35 41
Den 57 + 51 45
Por 46 35 + 47
Dal 41 54 41
Sac 40 + 32 + 40
Was 31 29 - 28
Cha 29 26 26
Phx 32 35 36
LAL 50 62 + 55
Uta 46 - 54 51
GSW 46 20 - 41
LAC 46 - 56 52
So I have 5 guesses (bottom of list) that are looking from 2 to 6 wins closer than Crow's. And he has 5 that are 10 to 16 better than mine (at top).
Crow leads with his worst MAE since Dec. 10, I have the worst numbers of the season, and the avg of the field is worst since opening day of the current projection system (Nov 14).
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.89 8.1
lisp 6.03 7.7
trzu 6.12 7.5
bbst 6.14 7.9
gold 6.18 7.9
emin 6.23 9.5
cali 6.27 7.7
.538 6.28 8.5
avg. 6.39 8.1
RyRi 6.52 8.2
sndi 6.61 8.6
shad 6.67 8.7
dtka 6.82 8.7
vegas 6.97 8.4
ncs. 7.18 9.0
KPel 7.46 9.1
Rd11 8.27 9.8
Mike 9.17 10.8
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:45 pm
by Crow
There are different kinds of analysis and analysis / response to analysis. Different people choose to do / excel at different things.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Sat Jan 25, 2020 9:19 pm
by Mike G
I used the minutes projection that Kevin Pelton provided.
His is the other entry with the worst error of the season.
Did anyone else project those minutes onto the players?
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:11 am
by Crow
Vegas vs. our average... what were their best and worst projections to date? Their motivation /context is somewhat different. Do their errors look financially motivated?
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:38 pm
by Mike G
Vegas has been in the bottom 1/3 all year, while "avg." has stayed in the top 1/3 and even contended for the lead.
Two weeks ago, tarrazu was cruising in the #9 spot.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.81 8.0
trzu 6.01 7.4
lisp 6.05 7.7
gold 6.08 7.7
bbst 6.12 7.8
emin 6.18 9.4
cali 6.22 7.6
.538 6.23 8.4
avg. 6.34 8.0
RyRi 6.35 8.1
sndi 6.47 8.5
shad 6.53 8.6
dtka 6.78 8.6
vegas 6.79 8.2
ncs. 7.15 8.9
KPel 7.45 9.0
Rd11 8.27 9.7
Mike 9.09 10.7
Besides lisp and Crow, that #2 slot has been held by cali, gold, and bbst.
Code: Select all
LAL 61 Mil 68
LAC 57 Tor 56
Uta 55 Bos 54
Dal 53 Mia 53
Den 52 Phl 51
Hou 50 Ind 49
OKC 48 Orl 38
SAS 38 Brk 35
Mem 37 Chi 32
Por 36 Det 32
NOP 35 Was 28
Phx 35 Cha 26
Sac 32 NYK 25
Min 29 Atl 23
GSW 20 Cle 22
West teams on avg project to 42.5 wins now, vs 39.5 in the East. On avg, we predicted 43-39.
Feb 5 update:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.80 7.7
gold 6.07 7.6
trzu 6.12 7.6
lisp 6.13 7.7
bbst 6.15 7.8
.538 6.19 8.4
RyRi 6.21 8.1
cali 6.21 7.6
emin 6.25 9.5
avg. 6.35 7.9
shad 6.45 8.5
sndi 6.46 8.4
vegas 6.72 8.2
dtka 6.81 8.6
ncs. 7.01 8.8
KPel 7.28 9.0
Rd11 8.28 9.7
Mike 9.10 10.9
This is Crow's biggest lead since Dec. 28
The #8 spot in the west has been on a rotisserie for several days.
Code: Select all
LAL 61 Mil 67
LAC 56 Tor 57
Den 53 Bos 55
Dal 52 Mia 54
Uta 52 Phl 49
Hou 51 Ind 48
OKC 49 Orl 38
Mem 38 Brk 36
Por 38 Chi 31
SAS 38 Det 30
NOP 35 Was 29
Phx 34 NYK 25
Sac 33 Cha 25
Min 28 Atl 23
GSW 21 Cle 21
The Grizz are currently 25-25 but with SRS of -2.05 and the toughest remaining schedule in the league (1.79). B-R.com expects them to go 12-20 the rest of the way.
Spurs are 22-28 with a nearly avg SRS and remaining SOS; expected to finish 16-16.
Blazers are 23-28 with -0.81 SRS and the 2nd easiest (after NOP) remaining sched; expected by b-r.com to close out 16-15 and win a playoff spot.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... _prob.html
70% chance either MIl or LAL wins the Finals. Bucks 3:1 in that matchup and better vs anyone else.
Feb6 quick update: I don't know why I find this fascinating, but here are the top 5 at various exponents; mostly where the gap is largest between #1 and #2.
Code: Select all
e=.10
RyRi 3.59
emin 3.63
shad 3.93
Crow 4.14
bbst 4.51
e=.43
emin 4.56
Crow 4.71
RyRi 4.71
shad 5.03
bbst 5.12
e=1
Crow 5.75
gold 6.10
lisp 6.15
RyRi 6.15
bbst 6.15
e=2
cali 7.68
gold 7.71
trzu 7.71
Crow 7.75
lisp 7.77
e=4.4
trzu 10.8
cali 10.9
lisp 11.4
bbst 11.7
gold 11.7
e=14
cali 16.8
trzu 16.9
Mike 16.9
Rd11 17.3
lisp 18.0
e=20
Mike 17.7
cali 18.1
trzu 18.2
Rd11 18.5
lisp 19.4
Caliban leads at exponent between 1.90 and 2.95, and again from 6.6 to 15.0
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:20 am
by Crow
Cavs 3-17 recently cutting my risk of being way too low on them. I may end up too low but probably not that bad.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:08 pm
by Mike G
Ha. There was a day when yours was the worst Cavs' guess, but I immediately reclaimed that and am now worse by 10.
Your lead over the field is now the largest it's been since Dec.28
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.75 7.8
gold 6.12 7.7
lisp 6.19 7.9
cali 6.20 7.7
bbst 6.21 8.0
RyRi 6.21 8.2
trzu 6.21 7.8
avg. 6.31 8.1
emin 6.31 9.7
.538 6.34 8.6
sndi 6.49 8.5
shad 6.50 8.6
vegas 6.78 8.3
dtka 6.89 8.7
ncs. 7.13 8.8
KPel 7.27 9.1
Rd11 8.29 9.8
Mike 9.12 11.0
UPDATE Feb. 23
Now the lead is smallest since Jan. 21, and a few are within one good/bad day of taking it.
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
Crow 5.83 7.9
bbst 5.95 8.0
lisp 5.97 7.9
cali 5.97 7.8
gold 6.01 7.8
avg. 6.09 8.2
RyRi 6.11 8.3
.538 6.20 8.6
trzu 6.26 7.9
shad 6.39 8.7
sndi 6.42 8.6
emin 6.47 9.9
vegas 6.73 8.5
dtka 6.86 8.8
ncs. 7.04 8.8
KPel 7.05 9.2
Rd11 8.08 9.7
Mike 9.00 11.0
and this is what we are dealing with:
Code: Select all
LAL 62 Mil 68
LAC 54 Tor 58
Den 53 Bos 57
Hou 52 Mia 51
Uta 52 Phl 50
Dal 50 Ind 47
OKC 49 Brk 39
Mem 39 Orl 36
NOP 38 Was 30
SAS 37 Chi 29
Por 37 Det 28
Sac 35 Cha 27
Phx 34 NYK 25
Min 27 Atl 25
GSW 19 Cle 22
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:27 pm
by Mike G
Yesterday I decided to just go with the b-r.com Playoff Probabilities Report's team win projection, since that and my less informed method were converging toward identical.
Coincidentally there's a shuffle at the top. JGoldstein linked to an updating spreadsheet that incorporates other projections. Maybe that one updated yesterday, so here the MAE leaders are side by side with my previous (A) and current (B) projection errors:
Code: Select all
2-23 A B JG
Crow 5.83 5.74 6.04
bbst 5.95 5.82 5.98
lisp 5.97 5.85 5.95
cali 5.97 5.80 6.01
gold 6.01 5.83 5.96
RyRi 6.11 5.94 6.04
...
That was yesterday, and this is today, relative to b-r.com:
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
cali 5.84 7.8
Crow 5.85 7.9
bbst 5.86 8.0
gold 5.88 7.8
lisp 5.89 7.9
RyRi 5.93 8.3
avg. 5.94 8.2
trzu 6.14 7.9
shad 6.22 8.7
sndi 6.34 8.6
emin 6.46 9.9
.538 6.56 9.1
vegas 6.63 8.4
dtka 6.77 8.8
ncs. 6.97 8.8
KPel 6.99 9.2
Rd11 8.03 9.8
Mike 8.83 11.0
This is as close as it has been all year, if not in any contest we've done here. Any of six contestants can be in the lead tomorrow.
Also, there is an anomaly with 538. I had entered a prediction of 45 wins for OKC. With that, their total summed to 41 wins per team. But the JGoldstein sheet shows they had 36 for OKC. Their avg wins seem now to be 40.7, and their avg error is noticeably worse.
While we normally list errors at exponents 1 and 2, I like to break it down into ranges:
Code: Select all
avg abs err low
0.01 - 0.70 RyRi
0.71 - 0.91 bbst
0.92 - 1.13 cali
1.14 - 1.32 Crow
1.33 - 1.33 cali
1.34 - 1.72 gold
1.73 - 3.59 cali
3.60 - 5.6 trzu
5.7 - 12.0 cali
12.1 - Mike
Occasionally one entry will lead in 2 distinct ranges, but I've not seen 3; and we have 4 for caliban.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:29 pm
by jgoldstein34
Just looking at the 538 issue now, it kind of seems to me that their preseason projections using RAPTOR are changing in-season because the Thunder are not the only team where what I have down as their projection is different from what they currently list.
As for the difference between us, I suspect one of us used the RAPTOR ratings and the other using the ELO forecast? Either way, I'm going to update what I have for them to match what they currently display as RAPTOR preseason projections.
Re: 2019-20 team win projection contest
Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:08 pm
by Crow
I expected major Thunder and Cavs trades. I assumed better lineup management by Pop.