Analysis of basketball through objective evidence
https://apbr.org/metrics/
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.89 6.00 .64 538R 5.89 7.56 .50
KPel 4.93 6.35 .55 BIPM 6.16 7.33 .66
vzro 5.21 6.66 .54 AnBa 6.32 7.94 .52
avgA 5.24 6.23 .60 vegas 6.40 7.68 .51
emin 5.45 7.14 .53 TmRk 6.45 7.64 .50
LEBR 5.54 6.37 .58 22Re 6.48 7.74 .33
DRKO 5.60 6.68 .54 nuFi 6.54 8.11 .46
trzu 5.63 6.82 .59 4141 6.71 9.43
EBPI 5.64 7.18 .50 EExp 6.99 8.28 .46
ncs. 5.68 6.90 .51 538E 7.31 9.01 .28
MPra 5.82 7.35 .61 2022 8.21 9.78 .33
Crow 5.85 6.82 .58
Code: Select all
proj west over proj east over
54.8 Den 5.4 56.6 Bos 0.7
50.5 Mem 2.0 54.9 Mil 3.9
45.1 Sac 9.4 52.0 Phl -0.2
43.6 Phx -7.4 51.9 Cle 4.9
43.1 Dal -2.8 47.0 Brk 1.3
42.9 LAC -4.4 45.1 NYK 3.3
42.9 NOP -3.1 43.2 Mia -6.0
41.9 OKC 16.8 40.8 Was 5.5
41.1 GSW -7.3 40.0 Atl -6.3
41.1 Min -7.4 39.6 Tor -7.4
40.4 Uta 8.6 37.8 Chi -0.3
39.6 Por 5.2 35.8 Ind 4.8
37.9 LAL -1.9 34.1 Orl 6.9
19.9 Hou -3.4 24.5 Cha -8.5
19.5 SAS -8.9 22.6 Det -3.3
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 5.03 5.96 .65 538R 5.98 7.51 .51
KPel 5.16 6.37 .56 MPra 5.99 7.46 .60
vzro 5.31 6.64 .55 BIPM 6.09 7.30 .66
avgA 5.37 6.30 .60 22Re 6.41 7.77 .34
LEBR 5.55 6.35 .59 AnBa 6.41 7.87 .53
emin 5.70 7.35 .51 vegas 6.56 7.78 .50
EBPI 5.74 7.11 .51 TmRk 6.59 7.73 .49
DRKO 5.76 6.76 .53 nuFi 6.63 8.09 .47
ncs. 5.81 6.96 .51 4141 6.65 9.55
trzu 5.91 6.92 .58 EExp 7.03 8.24 .47
Crow 5.97 6.88 .57 538E 7.48 9.04 .29
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 5.06 5.92 .65 MPra 6.02 7.39 .60
KPel 5.08 6.28 .56 BIPM 6.11 7.35 .65
vzro 5.28 6.60 .55 22Re 6.40 7.72 .34
avgA 5.45 6.26 .60 AnBa 6.49 7.89 .53
LEBR 5.54 6.25 .60 4141 6.61 9.51
DRKO 5.84 6.73 .53 TmRk 6.66 7.75 .49
emin 5.85 7.31 .51 vegas 6.66 7.81 .50
EBPI 5.90 7.16 .50 nuFi 6.72 8.10 .46
538R 5.91 7.47 .51 EExp 7.03 8.21 .47
ncs. 5.91 6.91 .51 538E 7.48 8.97 .29
Crow 5.94 6.83 .58 2022 8.13 9.67 .34
trzu 5.96 6.89 .58 Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 5.01 5.83 .67 BIPM 5.98 7.25 .66
vzro 5.17 6.48 .57 trzu 5.99 6.86 .58
KPel 5.20 6.29 .57 MPra 6.00 7.37 .61
LEBR 5.35 6.12 .62 22Re 6.39 7.70 .36
avgA 5.43 6.19 .61 AnBa 6.49 7.82 .54
DRKO 5.82 6.69 .54 TmRk 6.66 7.71 .49
emin 5.84 7.28 .52 vegas 6.66 7.76 .50
EBPI 5.86 7.07 .52 nuFi 6.70 8.01 .48
Crow 5.89 6.81 .58 4141 6.72 9.58
ncs. 5.89 6.84 .53 EExp 6.95 8.11 .48
538R 5.91 7.47 .51 538E 7.47 8.85 .31Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.96 5.96 .65 Crow 6.05 6.79 .59
KPel 5.16 6.48 .55 538R 6.11 7.64 .50
avgA 5.35 6.29 .61 BIPM 6.16 7.46 .64
vzro 5.42 6.78 .54 22Re 6.48 7.90 .34
LEBR 5.66 6.40 .59 AnBa 6.54 7.93 .53
emin 5.73 7.27 .52 TmRk 6.64 7.74 .50
DRKO 5.80 6.76 .54 vegas 6.65 7.77 .51
MPra 5.82 7.25 .62 nuFi 6.82 8.17 .46
EBPI 5.91 7.32 .49 4141 6.93 9.70
trzu 5.94 6.87 .59 EExp 7.10 8.20 .48
ncs. 5.94 6.98 .52 538E 7.63 9.13 .28
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse
dtka 4.76 dtka 5.77
.
.
.
KPel 5.07 avgA 6.13
. LEBR 6.21
avgA 5.20 KPel 6.30
vzro 5.25
.
. vzro 6.56
DRKO 5.52 DRKO 6.59
LEBR 5.53
emin 5.57 trzu 6.76
. Crow 6.76
EBPI 5.67 ncs. 6.78
trzu 5.76
ncs. 5.77
BIPM 5.79 EBPI 7.01
. BIPM 7.10
Crow 5.96 emin 7.13
MPra 5.98
538R 6.00
. MPra 7.33
.
. 538R 7.51
AnBa 6.39
22Re 6.42 TmRk 7.61
TmRk 6.46 vegas 7.67
vegas 6.46
nuFi 6.55 22Re 7.78
. AnBa 7.80
.
. nuFi 7.90
EExp 6.92
4141 6.94 EExp 8.07
.
.
.
.
.
.
538E 7.57
.
.
. 538E 9.00
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.93 6.00 .65 BIPM 6.03 7.47 .64
KPel 5.10 6.52 .55 MPra 6.08 7.44 .60
avgA 5.24 6.29 .61 538R 6.23 7.69 .50
vzro 5.50 6.84 .53 22Re 6.40 7.89 .34
DRKO 5.61 6.66 .55 TmRk 6.66 7.84 .49
LEBR 5.71 6.46 .59 vegas 6.66 7.91 .49
trzu 5.72 6.87 .59 AnBa 6.76 8.08 .51
EBPI 5.76 7.22 .51 nuFi 6.87 8.17 .46
ncs. 5.79 6.83 .53 EExp 6.98 8.27 .47
emin 5.79 7.36 .52 4141 7.07 9.72
Crow 5.94 6.75 .59 538E 7.56 9.02 .30
Code: Select all
. avg err rmse r^2 avg err rmse r^2
dtka 4.95 6.07 .64 BIPM 6.00 7.57 .63
KPel 5.32 6.58 .54 MPra 6.15 7.53 .59
avgA 5.33 6.36 .60 538R 6.27 7.73 .49
vzro 5.56 6.83 .53 22Re 6.34 7.78 .35
LEBR 5.72 6.48 .58 TmRk 6.68 7.91 .48
DRKO 5.74 6.75 .54 vegas 6.69 7.99 .48
EBPI 5.81 7.26 .50 AnBa 6.83 8.14 .51
ncs. 5.84 6.89 .53 EExp 6.88 8.29 .47
Crow 5.87 6.80 .59 nuFi 6.90 8.18 .46
trzu 5.89 6.98 .58 4141 6.97 9.69
emin 5.93 7.46 .50 538E 7.51 8.94 .30
Code: Select all
year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
# 19 13 16 17 18 20 23 yrs avg
Crow 58 46 56 94 28 15 57 7 51
vegas 21 62 88 18 39 50 70 7 49
538 32 77 19 24 22 90 0 7 38
cali 69 63 88 89 65 87 6 77
trzu 53 92 38 47 94 78 6 67
shad 85 81 41 50 40 30 6 55
emin 47 38 13 65 72 95 6 55
KPel 89 31 35 78 4 58
RyRi 59 44 60 52 4 54
sndi 53 33 85 39 4 53
dtka 95 54 50 12 4 53
ncs 63 29 0 65 4 39
eWin 8 0 45 35 4 22
year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017
bbst 69 71 67 3 69
kmed 17 80 96 3 64
gold 76 56 25 3 52
lisp 31 25 82 3 46
AnJo 83 10 43 3 46
lnqi 70 78 2 74
sbs 75 48 2 61
EExp 11 94 2 52
EBPI 68 0 2 34
ATCt 30 30 2 30
GK5 35 17 2 26
Rd11 6 6 2 6
Caliban the GOAT!Mike G wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 6:56 pm Luck is big.
Here's a decidedly incomplete table of entries who were entered at least twice in the last 7 years. The numbers are a sort of 'percentile', as the % of entries that finished beneath you. Middle of the pack is around 50.Caliban did not show up this year, but they were in or near top 1/3 for 6 years straight.Code: Select all
year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 # 19 13 16 17 18 20 23 yrs avg Crow 58 46 56 94 28 15 57 7 51 vegas 21 62 88 18 39 50 70 7 49 538 32 77 19 24 22 90 0 7 38 cali 69 63 88 89 65 87 6 77 trzu 53 92 38 47 94 78 6 67 shad 85 81 41 50 40 30 6 55 emin 47 38 13 65 72 95 6 55 KPel 89 31 35 78 4 58 RyRi 59 44 60 52 4 54 sndi 53 33 85 39 4 53 dtka 95 54 50 12 4 53 ncs 63 29 0 65 4 39 eWin 8 0 45 35 4 22 year 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 bbst 69 71 67 3 69 kmed 17 80 96 3 64 gold 76 56 25 3 52 lisp 31 25 82 3 46 AnJo 83 10 43 3 46 lnqi 70 78 2 74 sbs 75 48 2 61 EExp 11 94 2 52 EBPI 68 0 2 34 ATCt 30 30 2 30 GK5 35 17 2 26 Rd11 6 6 2 6
538 is probably now 538R or a precedent form.