2019-20 team win projection contest

[eminence]

A couple early thoughts on 538's #s:

-I'm surprised Cleveland is that low, maybe counting on a Love trade or something? If he's reasonably healthy I'd expect closer to 30 than 20.
-Not sure the Bulls jump quite that much, but wouldn't be surprised if they're one of the largest risers from last season.
-Think the Raptors could be a good bit better than that, we'll see how Lowry/Gasol continue to age. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they approached 55 wins.
-Haven't made up my mind how I feel about the Sixers yet, initial feeling is I don't love the new fit, but tough to decide.
-Similar on the Rockets as the Sixers.
-Jazz/Warriors are my favorites to break free from that upper West pack.
-Blazers bit low I think.
-35 seems really high for a team who'll be running a rookie PG with the Grizz, I think I expect them to be the clear #15 in the West.

[Crow]

Betonline excluded OKC and HOU.

The correlation of these projections with 538 is .85

The biggest discrepancies (plus or minus 6) were BKN, CHI. IND, LAC. MEM MIN, PHX, POR, SAS.

The average difference is 4.3.

vegas 538 538-Vegas
ATL 32.5 ATL 28 -4.5
BRK 45.5 BKN 38 -7.5
BOS 48.5 BOS 46 -2.5
CHA24.5 CHA26 1.5
CHI 30.5 CHI 37 6.5
CLE 24.5 CLE 21 -3.5
DAL 41.5 DAL 44 2.5
DEN 50.5 DEN 51 0.5
DET 36.5 DET 36 -0.5
GSW47.5 GS 50 2.5
IND 48.5 IND 39 -9.5
LAC 55.5 LAC 48 -7.5
LAL 51.5 LAL 50 -1.5
MEM27.5 MEM35 7.5
MIA 42.5 MIA 44 1.5
MIL 56.5 MIL 54 -2.5
MIN 35.5 MIN 43 7.5
NOP 37.5 NO 43 5.5
NYK 26.5 NY 23 -3.5
ORL 41.5 ORL 42 0.5
PHI 53.5 PHI 59 5.5
PHX 26.5 PHX 36 9.5
POR 45.5 POR 38 -7.5
SAC 36.5 SAC 33 -3.5
SAS 43.5 SA 38 -5.5
TOR 45.5 TOR 45 -0.5
UTA 52.5 UTA 50 -2.5
WAS28.5 WSH 32 3.5

[shadow]

FYI - you have SAS and SAC transposed.

[Crow]

Thanks. I guess my inspection trailed off near end. Fixed.

[eminence]

Put together some beta #'s today (not sharing quite yet), but seem pretty close to consensus.

Deviations
-Pretty high on Utah (mid to high 50's), bit worried my fandom is pushing up the subjective portion of my model, but hopeful it's just a better understanding of the team
-Low on the Magic, heck I still don't know how they won that many games last season, Clifford is a magician.
-Higher on Warriors, think we'll see more from Draymond in the RS than we have in awhile.
-Higher on the Thunder, still up in the air on this one though, imagine it depends on if one thinks CP3 gets shipped out midseason or not.
-Lower on Pacers. They kinda blew up a pretty solid roster, even if the new guys are solid (I think they are) it'll take a bit to build continuity.
-High on Clippers, though need to research the George injury a bit more.

[Crow]

All reasonable opinions.

To beat other projections, I debate how much to try to add unforeseen variance.

[vzografos]

Hi,
can someone explain to me what these numbers are?

[Crow]

They are team win projections from the labelled parties. Methods vary. Vegas doesn't reveal and for 538 you look at their site for the detail they want to reveal.

For more entries see this

https://twitter.com/CanovaAnalytics/sta ... 6594593792

[vzografos]

So how many games each team is going to win out of their 82 regular season games right?

[eminence]

Yep

[nbacouchside]

[edit]

[eminence]

That is a bold Pelicans prediction, I like it.

[Crow]

How much of that Pelicans win projection is Zion?

[nbacouchside]

How much of that Pelicans win projection is Zion?

I used Jacob Goldstein's PIPM projections for rookies. Zion ranks as the most valuable player on the Pelicans this year, so he's a big part of it.

The other big part of it is that Jaxson Hayes grades highly (I'm dubious on this), and there just aren't many guys expected to get minutes (via Kevin Pelton's minutes projections) that aren't at least pretty solid by the Tracking RAPM Estimate numbers I put together.

[Mike G]

Can someone provide or link to Kevin's minutes estimates?