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2023/24 trades
Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2023 12:07 am
by Mike G
Some traded player comparisons, their 2023 numbers:
Code: Select all
Trades regular season playoffs
player xyzW PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484
Paul 5.88 17.7 .156 3.2 1.29 14.7 .064 0.8 .90
Poole 4.01 14.6 .063 -1.9 1.05 9.6 .018 -3.9 .72
player xyzW PER WS/48 BPM e484 PER WS/48 BPM e484
Smart 2.66 12.1 .092 -1.0 .65 15.4 .112 0.8 1.01
T Jones 4.97 16.0 .141 1.6 .95 7.9 -.013 -2.3 .38
Porzingis 8.31 23.1 .174 4.3 2.02
xyzWins are avg of player wins estimated by the 4 summary stats.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2023 4:00 am
by Crow
The list of trades worth tracking is longer now. Results by many different measures will each be interesting to review at some point in future.
I might look at RAPM factors to make guesses now and / or later. Highly doubt I'll see that in mainstream or "leading" media. Doubts about accuracy could be raised about any / all approaches including eye test / "experience" based judgment. Some to many be less accurate than RAPM factor based analysis. Will try to look / compare later.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2023 5:25 am
by Crow
Lillard only helped by about +1 on RAPM factors last season The presumed starting lineup is +12, almost all because of Giannis and Brook. Lillard most needed assistance is with making free throws. 3 positive factors, 5 negative estimates.
Celtics next. Jrue... 4.7 times as good as Lillard on last season RAPM factors. Mr. Horst must not have checked or cared about that.
Yes context matters and 3 yr is probably better than 1 yr. and I'll check that later. But that is a huge, previously undiscussed difference.
Jrue Holiday is near identical to Derrick White on 7 factors, usually a tick less positive. But better on opponent rate on making free throws.
Assuming Holiday D White Brown Tatum Porzingis, that lineup is about +13. Slightly better than Bucks after the trades. By RAPM factors, Bucks probably had the advantage last season.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:53 am
by DarkStar48
This is a aggregated view of the rough quality of major roster changes this off-season — not accounting for non-resigned free agents — compiled by @AndrewDBailey as of July 20, using Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) Wins.
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Personally, I don’t trust the EPM values as much, especially on defense, ever since the metric was updated before the 2021-22 season, but it’s a good starting point to think about things.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2023 4:54 pm
by Crow
Minute imbalances likely distort comparisons of the columns, with the incoming column often involving more or less than 240 team minutes per game unless adjusted are made for unnamed players.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2023 10:34 pm
by v-zero
I don't like EPM at all, numbers smell so wrong to me when looking at their leaderboard.
Regarding the moves for Milwaukee and Boston: the Bucks will likely be a top three offense, but might well be a bottom ten defense. I don't expect them to be appreciably better.
Boston have absolutely nailed it. Porzingis had a near career year last year, whilst Smart needed to make way for the superior White anyway, addition by subtraction and then some. Picking up Jrue is just icing on the cake. I expect the Celtics to come out of the East and into the finals relatively easily if they remain healthy enough.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2023 2:22 am
by Crow
Lillard, 4 straight seasons of decline on LA-RAPM to his career low for years covered by NBAShotCharts.
Holiday steady at 3rd and 4th best of career over last 2 seasons, very close to 2nd best.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Tue Oct 03, 2023 6:45 pm
by Crow
I am doing this incrementally.
3 yr RAPM is not in sync with 1 yr and has Lillard and Holiday both better across careers but Lillard moreso. Holiday is still the clear leader on latest 3 yr though.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Fri Oct 13, 2023 3:42 pm
by Crow
If Morey wants an All-Star guard for Harden, his primary choices are probably Brogdon or D Murray.
Lowry, Conley, Beal or McCollum could be available if desired.
Not that and unlikely, Poole.
LaVine? DeRozan?
I wouldn't expect them to pay enough for Irving.
If I were with Lakers, I'd offer D Russell but would not be interested for Sixers.
Sexton?
I don't know how many of these will be available and at reasonable prices, but maybe some.
3rd teams or more may be involved.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Tue Oct 31, 2023 10:35 pm
by Crow
Harden trade finally made.
We'll see how it plays out.
Perhaps the Clippers headed to Philly will help.
Thunder draft adjustment could work in a couple of ways but also might not. Whatever for now.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:31 pm
by Crow
Trade action starting next week or just elevated talk? I hope for the former, but...
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2023 7:22 pm
by Crow
Markkanen, negative pairs with all of rotation except likely to be gone sooner very soon Olynyk and bit player Kris Dunn.
Almost 27, injury history, UFA...yeah I'd at least consider trades.
5 years from making playoffs and more from any chance of contending? Probably.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:21 pm
by Crow
Raptors - Knicks trade is considered win - win.
Some stats on new teams:
Anunoby, great team +/-. Lowest usage since rookie season. Lowest FT rate, assist rate and turnover rate. Second lowest 3pta rate. Lowest defensive rebounding rate. Highest BPM but still under +2. Is he going to be happy with winning and the money in that reduced offensive role? It is not what he said be wanted.
Quickley and Barrett. Quickley's BPM fell a point to just over +1 because of D-BPM. Barrett's, up 3 to career high near +2 because of hot 3pt shooting, highest FTA rate, huge TS% improvement and defense.
Achiuwa, lightly used and awful overall.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2024 5:23 am
by Crow
Plenty has been written about the various trades.
I'll just add that almost every team could have benefited from 1 or more additional trades.
Re: 2023/24 trades
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2024 6:45 pm
by Mike G
I find 10 players who have 100+ minutes with each of 2 teams this season. Others may have reached 100 overnight.
Code: Select all
.traded tm2 min e484 PER WS/48 BPM tm1 Min e484 PER WS/48 BPM
Barrett Tor 606 1.38 17.3 .096 0.0 NYK 766 1.05 14.2 .070 -2.2
Quickley Tor 606 1.03 14.2 .077 -1.2 NYK 720 1.25 16.9 .148 2.3
Achiuwa NYK 540 .73 13.6 .119 -1.9 Tor 437 .98 15.0 .054 -1.6
Anunoby NYK 500 .94 15.1 .141 2.4 Tor 900 .66 12.6 .058 -1.6
Siakam Ind 463 1.59 20.2 .138 3.4 Tor 1354 1.43 18.8 .113 1.3
B Brown Tor 307 .49 11.4 .052 -3.8 Ind 981 .65 12.1 .067 -2.4
Rozier Mia 299 .84 12.3 .051 -1.9 Cha 1065 1.28 19.0 .085 2.1
Bagley Was 235 1.25 19.5 .110 -1.5 Det 478 1.08 18.0 .105 -1.2
Muscala Det 152 .22 9.5 .065 -1.7 Was 338 .04 7.6 -.005 -6.3
Nwora Tor 119 .93 15.7 .111 -0.7 Ind 183 .66 12.1 .023 -4.2
totals 3827 1.02 15.3 .100 -0.4 7222 1.01 15.5 .083 -0.6
While these summary stats don't offer the same assessments, they typically agree that a player's numbers have gotten better or worse. Here, WS thinks Achiuwa has done much better in NY -- he just went to a better team.