APBRmetrics

I only used 11 season's worth of data, but when comparing team offensive rebounds/game to win total it had a negative correlation. This surprised me considering it was one of the four factors. You really should look at OR%, not OR/game. The latter will be impacted by pace and, more importantly, wil...

What boggles my mind is that nobody voted for Curry. I read 7 for Ig, 4 for LeBron. Who are these voters, anyway? There must have been some collusion. Otherwise, we might have had LeBron 4, Iggy 3, Steph 3, Green 1. Agreed. The probability that the seven non-LeBron voters would all independently se...

I thought this was a perceptive tweet from Nate Silver ✔@NateSilver538: If Warriors had LeBron and Cavs had Iguodala, average game score would be roughly 147 to -6. While value metrics are answering a slightly different question, I do think the obvious truth of Nate's counterfactual should call into...

Interesting piece by Neil, suggesting Cavs can expect only about a quarter of their Games 1-3 defensive success to persist going forward: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-cavs-have-played-the-defense-of-their-lives-so-far-can-they-keep-it-up/ . However, I worry that looking only at 7-game seri...

That's interesting data. It seems clear, at a minimum, that the hit rate is higher in the corners (as we'd expect). The study reports no difference by location, but their sample is probably just too small to get a statistically significant difference (especially since they discard the first two shot...

Mystery solved! Going back to an earlier question, does anyone know of any research or on whether individual players tend to have higher 3PT% from certain locations along the 3-point line? Of if not research, does any site generate multi-year shot charts? That would provide some indication of whethe...

Are you comparing the hit rate after 3 makes to each "player's" expectation, or to the overall average of 54%? If it's the latter, that would explain your result: the better shooters will generate a disproportionate share of the streaks of 3 makes, and their expectation on the next shot wi...

Do you mean that you pooled all 33 players together into a single sample (and then did that 100 times)? If so, that would certainly account for your result. Otherwise, you obviously aren't generating truly random samples...

Has anyone studied whether players do vary in their success rate on 3s from different points around the arc? Obviously, in any given year a player will often have much more success from one location (say, a specific corner), but that could be random variation and/or differential defensive pressure. ...

There's been a lot of studies showing that hot hand may in fact exist. I think a more accurate summary would be that there have been a handful of recent studies purporting to discover a hot hand study. Usually, they involve very sophisticated statistical techniques that unearth what are, at most, s...

Actually, it is pretty shocking. Years of research have shown little or no hot hand effect, across multiple sports.

And I'm not sure I buy this finding.....

This new study claims to have identified "hot hand" patterns in NBA 3-point competitions: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=2611987.

And the kool kidz seem to think the hot hand is now a non-fallacy: http://www.vox.com/2015/6/3/8719731/hot-hand-fallacy.

Thoughts?

Looking at 2012-13 and 2013-14, and using the SD of WPA in each category, I get this distribution among the four factors: FG 49% TO 20% RB 17% FT 14% However, if we just sum the WPA for winning teams, we see a different story: about 70% of WPA generated by shooting, and 10% for each of the other fac...

Do you post team-level WPA totals somewhere on your site?

I'm not sure this will work, but you might want to try comparing the WPA of winning and losing teams. For example, sum the WPA of all teams >.600 WP%, and compare to those <.400. There will still be noise in that data, but proportionately much less. That might give you more meaningful proportions fo...