Shot Types With and Without You

[EvanZ]

I'm going to start looking into shot distribution (inside, mid-range, 3pt, foul shooting) with players on and off the court. First player up is Nick Young.

With Nick Young (1166 possessions), the shot distribution of the team (shot rates per 100 possessions followed by %'s):

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INSR	 INS%	  MIDR	  MID%	 3PTR	 3PT%	  FTR 	 FT%	  AND1R
30.96	62.33%	43.40	31.62%	15.09	42.61%	19.90	70.26%	1.89

Without Young on the floor (662 possessions):

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INSR	 INS%	  MIDR	  MID%	 3PTR	 3PT%	  FTR 	 FT%	  AND1R
31.57	65.07%	43.35	28.57%	14.20	47.87%	20.39	71.85%	1.36

I think you'll find it interesting as I do, that the distribution does not change much at all. Notice that especially, the mid-range shot rate is virtually unchanged. And as bad as WAS shoots those shots, they are more efficient with Young on the floor. I started with Young because he's one of those guys who is often criticized for taking a lot of bad shots (he is averaging 14.6 mid-range shots per 100 possessions - basically 1/3 of those shots when he's on the court). And maybe he does. But maybe he has to.

I'm posting this case study, because I'd like to know what other players you guys would be interested in seeing these data for. I wish I had the time to write some code to do this for every NBA player, but I don't. So, I figure I can do several handful, at least. I'd like to find some players who actually can be called "overshooters" (their teams don't need them to shoot so many of those jumpers).

[motherwell]

Do you rate shot value? An open 18 footer is different to a "Shannon Brown", aka an 18 footer that gets blocked.

In either case, I'd be interested to see stats like that.

[EvanZ]

Do you rate shot value? An open 18 footer is different to a "Shannon Brown", aka an 18 footer that gets blocked.

I have a series of articles explaining how this metric works. See here:

http://thecity2.wordpress.com/advanced- ... mer/#psams

[xkonk]

Is that because Jordan Crawford typically replaces Young (just going by the ESPN depth chart)? I don't know much about either, except that Crawford manages to shoot worse than Young does. Are his shot types similar to Young? It looks like Washington shoots better from inside and three when Young is out, but isn't taking advantage by taking more of those shots.

In the spirit of finding an example that should show a big difference, how about Dwight Howard?

[EvanZ]

I'll probably do a series of articles looking at different positions. I thought about how I can modify my code to make the analysis go quite a bit quicker.

[Jeff Fogle]

Would be interested in Carmelo, who has a repuation as a "flow stopper," and Rubio, who has a reputation as a "flow creator." Do the Knicks have a more balanced distribution of locations when Carmelo is out? Do the T-wolves have a more balanced distribution when Rubio is on the floor?

[DSMok1]

I'll probably do a series of articles looking at different positions. I thought about how I can modify my code to make the analysis go quite a bit quicker.

I would love to see what Steve Nash does to the shot variety, and also, say, Kobe.

[EvanZ]

Looks like I can now do this fairly quickly (about 1 minute per player). Here's Monta Ellis:

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TEAM ON/OFF NAME	POSS	INSR	INS%	 MIDR 	 MID%	  3PTR 	3EFG%	  FTR 	FT%	 AND1R
GSW	ON	Ellis	1270	28.74	60.82%	36.46	40.17%	20.55	54.02%	22.68	73.61%	0.71
GSW   OFF	Ellis	386	24.87	63.54%	39.90	38.96%	22.54	62.07%	16.32	66.67%	0.52

[EvanZ]

I worked up the Warriors shot distribution in 2012:

[DSMok1]

Ouch. You're breaking various visualization laws with that thing. It looks like a bunch of identical graphs side-by-side.

I would recommend showing a similar grid, with each player showing ON MINUS OFF graphs (so only 5 bars per player).

[EvanZ]

Agreed. I'm going to write a post on this, but if anyone is interested in seeing some data...Here are the top 50 mid-range shooters by volume (#mid-range shots / 100 possessions) sorted by the DELTA of team mid-range shots when the player is ON vs. OFF. The "leader" may shock you.

[Crow]

I'd be interested in seeing this for Westbrook, Rose, Nowitski, Kobe, James, maybe Bargnani, to name a few.

[EvanZ]

http://thecity2.com/2012/02/02/i-can-li ... e-jumpers/

[Crow]

Durant and Westbrook both in the top 7 for more team mid-rangers when they are on the court compared to when they are off the court (in part because Harden and Cook come off the bench, often together).

Aldridge one of the top guys associated with a reduction in team mid-rangers. Is it more about Aldridge or the lineups on / off?

Wonder what a APM style analysis (just counting mid-range shots when on / off) would show, for offense and defense, when players on the court are fully considered. And the same with other shot types. It would help in separating estimated player impacts on this from the teammates on vs off impacts.

[DSMok1]

Durant and Westbrook both in the top 7 for more team mid-rangers when they are on the court compared to when they are off the court (in part because Harden and Cook come off the bench, often together).

Aldridge one of the top guys associated with a reduction in team mid-rangers. Is it more about Aldridge or the lineups on / off?

Wonder what a APM style analysis (just counting mid-range shots when on / off) would show, for offense and defense, when players on the court are fully considered. And the same with other shot types. It would help in separating estimated player impacts on this from the teammates on vs off impacts.

RAPM Midrange would be really cool.