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Who is the most valuable NBA player?
LaMarcus Aldridge 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Chris Paul 7%  7%  [ 1 ]
Kobe Bryant 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Kevin Durant 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Blake Griffin 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Dwight Howard 7%  7%  [ 1 ]
LeBron James 86%  86%  [ 12 ]
Kevin Love 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Derrick Rose 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Russell Westbrook 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 14
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 11:44 pm 
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Why is Josh Smith on there? I don't see Blake having a strong case either. We should probably have at most one player per team as a candidate. Maybe a better way to do this would be to take the top player from the top 10 teams according to point differential or PyWins.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:06 am 
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At the least, they're placeholders, so that anyone else can be nominated later. As just happened.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 2:06 pm 
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EvanZ wrote:
Why is Josh Smith on there? ... take the top player from the top 10 teams according to point differential or PyWins.

The Hawks are #8 in SRS, and Smith leads this sometimes centerless team in rebounds and blocks (by wide margins); he's 2nd in scoring and steals, 3rd in assists; 1st in PER and nondescript in WS/48.
I rank him well above everyone else, including Horford. Versatility matters.

The Clipps are just 11th in SRS; Griffin leads them in points and rebounds, by wide margins; 2nd in blocks, 4th in assists and steals. Distant 2nd to Paul in both PER and WS/48; but 1st in minutes per game.

I don't get the requirement that a player's team has to be good before he can be considered Valuable. Would you pay more for the best Sixer than for the best Magic, just because the team is better?

Speaking of the Sixers, they may not even have a strong All-Star candidate, much less an MVP type.

Anyway, you may refer to this thread to see where I got the candidates --
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7838
And any poll choice with no votes can be removed for any other preferred nominee.


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 4:26 pm 
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Mike G wrote:

I don't get the requirement that a player's team has to be good before he can be considered Valuable. Would you pay more for the best Sixer than for the best Magic, just because the team is better?



It's subjective, but...

A bad team with a great player becomes a worse team without him. How much value is the player really bringing that team in that case? A 15 win team without or a 35 win team with a MVP candidate is still a bad team. Conversely, a great player on a good team may put that team over the top and enable them to contend for a championship (a 35 win vs. 55 win team). That player arguably has more value for that team. Certainly, the great player on a good team can bring much more financial value to that team by putting them in a position to win a championship.

It's not "Best Player" award. If it were that, it should be independent of the team situation (to the extent that the stats are not inflated by being on a bad team).

Interestingly, perhaps, if we look at 2012 RAPM with no prior, it looks like the best player on a bad team right now is Chase Budinger (+2.1). Right behind him is Ekpe Udoh at +2.0. Love is +1.5. The fact that Love is having a great statistical season is not apparent in his RAPM rating and never has been. FWIW, Josh Smith is at +0.5. I would vote for Thad (+2.3) over Smith.

Just a discussion. There's no right answer is there?

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 6:08 pm 
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EvanZ wrote:
A 15 win team without or a 35 win team with a MVP candidate is still a bad team. ..
..It's not "Best Player" award. If it were that, it should be independent of the team situation

Shoot. I thought we had managed to steer away from trying to guess who is going to be voted for some award.
The Best Player, I'd think, would have the most Value in a trade, in a contract negotiation, in making his team better, etc.

It may still be true that Thad Young fits the Sixers better than Josh Smith does, and the opposite could also be true: Both guys may have more value where they are now. The Hawks are a bit short on players who can make things happen, which Smith does. The Sixers appreciate a blue collar hustler who doesn't make many mistakes nor demand lots of minutes.

So, I don't know if the Sixers have any mvp type player. Iggy leads in WS (and eW); Lou W leads in PER. Hawes leads in WS (and eW) per minute ...


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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 6:50 pm 
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Mike G wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
A 15 win team without or a 35 win team with a MVP candidate is still a bad team. ..
..It's not "Best Player" award. If it were that, it should be independent of the team situation

Shoot. I thought we had managed to steer away from trying to guess who is going to be voted for some award.
The Best Player, I'd think, would have the most Value in a trade, in a contract negotiation, in making his team better, etc.



Chris Bosh arguably produced more wins in Toronto than he is in Miami. Was he more "valuable" there or in Miami? I don't know the answer, and I don't think it's obvious.

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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 8:52 pm 
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Unless he's changed, he may have equal value wherever he plays.
eWins was created for the express purpose of assigning equivalent wins added, regardless of team strength. Here are Bosh's annual eWins and Win Shares for comparison.
Code:
yr     r/p    tm     eW     WS
2004    r    Tor     4.5    6.2
2005    r    Tor     8.4    6.8
2006    r    Tor    10.5    9.8
2007    r    Tor    11.4    9.6
2007    p    Tor     0.5    0.3
2008    r    Tor    10.9   10.1
2008    p    Tor     0.8    0.6
2009    r    Tor    11.8    9.7
2010    r    Tor    11.0    9.6
total        Tor    69.8   62.7

2011    r    Mia     9.8   10.3
2011    p    Mia     2.6    2.6
2012    r    Mia     3.3    3.5
total        Mia    15.7   16.4
In his rookie year, his WS are mostly defensive, and not thereafter.
After that, eW > WS every year (and playoffs) in Toronto; WS > eW in Miami.


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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 7:40 am 
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My vote goes to Derrick Rose. He means more to that Bulls team than Lebron does to Miami and Kobe does to the Lakers. Without him, that team loses it's motor. He will still be a phenomenal player when his speed begins to decline.

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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2012 12:28 pm 
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Even if so, you're arguing for Team mvp. We're talking about the league.
If Rose were traded for LeBron, would the Bulls be worse? Would Miami be better?
Did you see the EC Finals last year?


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for 2011-12 MVP
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 6:32 pm 
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J.E. wrote:
Minnesota is playing at +2 with Love, +3 without. I know he'll get votes and it makes me cringe. Obviously his On/Off is bad because he's playing on a elite team and has elite PFs/Cs that back him up..... . He'll have to thank Rubio and Anthony Tolliver. If anyone's really considering to vote for Love, then please go watch some actual games of Minnesota instead of looking at BoxScores. I'm sure if you've done that, there's no way you still think he's one of the best players in the league


Love is now +2.5 on RAPM. What happened? He was +0.3 at the end of last season. And does his new rating make you re-think this comment or your system in general? how does a player improve 2.2 points in 25 games or so? Or was there a bug somewhere?

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for 2011-12 MVP
PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:20 pm 
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EvanZ wrote:
Love is now +2.5 on RAPM. What happened? He was +0.3 at the end of last season. And does his new rating make you re-think this comment or your system in general? how does a player improve 2.2 points in 25 games or so? Or was there a bug somewhere?
Are you serious?
Yes, no player ever moves away from his prior unless there is a bug

I'd take back the part that he would have to thank Tolliver (and Rubio), but I still don't think he's one of the best players in the league

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:37 pm 
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I understand that there can be player movement, but moving from 0.3 to 2.5 in 30 games or so seems dramatic. You don't agree? Have you watched him play recently? Does he seem that much improved to you this season?

Also, if 2.5 is his current rating, doesn't that mean he's been much better than that actually to pull up his prior 3 seasons? He's played about 17% of his career minutes this season. His rating must be tremendous.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:41 pm 
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Not to get stuck on the precision of any given year's estimate, but isn't Love's RAPM story - http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/players/778.png - basically consistent with general expectations of age-related improvement?


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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 9:44 pm 
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schtevie wrote:
Not to get stuck on the precision of any given year's estimate, but isn't Love's RAPM story - http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/players/778.png - basically consistent with general expectations of age-related improvement?


I have no doubt that's part of it. It's just the magnitude of the improvement according to Jerry's RAPM surprised me. I swear I can remember looking at it just a few weeks ago when we were talking about it, and it wasn't this high. Maybe he's been playing out of his mind lately.

It's also interesting that most of his box score stats actually appear to be worse this season compared to last. TS% is down. Reb% is way down. AST% is down. Maybe his defense is really improving or he's setting screens better or something. Just trying to figure it out. His USG is way up, though (22% -> 27%). Maybe this is a great case study for that effect.

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PostPosted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 10:46 pm 
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i'm certainly not going to propose the idea that kevin love is an all-D 1st team defender. i don't believe he is, and he gets few steals and blocks for a PF. but this webpage:

http://www.82games.com/1112/11MIN12.HTM#bypos

shows poor PF/C counterpart production when he's played this season, and current Synergy defensive data shows a low PPP and low eFG% allowed by him...

As for Love, the Wolves don't have too much trouble scoring when he's not playing , eFG even improves when he's not playing (47% -> 51%). He obviously improves their rebounding, but they also have a better opponent eFG when he's not playing (46% -> 44%), opponents are getting to the line less and Minnesota creates a whole bunch of more turnovers (13/p48m -> 20/p48m).

this webpage:

http://www.82games.com/1112/11MIN12.HTM#onoff

shows love has been on the floor for over 3 times as many minutes as he's been off the floor. consequently the smaller data set which you are comparing his data to has a far higher chance of being skewed...

His pick and roll defense is still pretty horrible for someone that might get MVP votes and he's also bad at contesting shots...

love's played 1/7 to 1/6 of the t-wolves' total minutes played, yet the team is better than the league average in defense (pts/poss allowed). if his overall defense was poor, do you realize just how good of defense his teammates playing the other 5/6 to 6/7 of time would have to be for the team's defense as a whole to be better than league average? other than rubio, who else on that team are good defenders such that with love's "horrible" p-n-r defense and "bad" shot contesting the team as a whole is better defensively than league average?...

If anyone's really considering to vote for Love, then please go watch some actual games of Minnesota instead of looking at BoxScores. I'm sure if you've done that, there's no way you still think he's one of the best players in the league...

define "best" - top 10 players in the league? top 5 among PFs?

because when you look at what he's done so far this season - 25.5 pts/g with 14.1 reb/g - you'll find just how extremely difficult/rare it is for a player to do that. you can count on one hand the number of players that have averaged 24 pts/g and 13 reb/g over the span of a season since the late 1970s (garnett, shaq, olajuwon, moses malone, and david robinson), and just one, malone, did 25 pts/g with 14 reb/g...

and of the times it has been done, love has one of the lowest/best rates of turnovers committed, and he's shooting a solid 56% ScFG% (2s, 3s, and FTs)...

the fact is to have one player contribute 25 pts/g, while shooting well and being offensively efficient, while also getting 14 reb/g, generates wins at a high rate. and the 82games.com counterpart data and Synergy data infer his man defense has been better than average...


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