2012 Playoff stats and summaries

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Mike G
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2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Mike G »

After 4 games by all teams, eWins leaders:

Code: Select all

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.95   James,Lebron   Mia   38  .579   36.8   5.9   6.5   2.2   4.1   .0   3.04
.77   Paul,Chris     LAC   41  .573   23.1   4.9   9.5   2.2   3.1   .0   2.28
.75   Parker,Tony     SA   33  .564   29.1   3.6   9.8    .8   2.7   .0   2.74
.75   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   35  .555   29.2   3.6   5.7   3.1   2.6  1.0   2.54
.72   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   32  .514   19.9   5.8  13.1   3.1   2.3   .0   2.72

.71   Durant,Kevin   Okl   42  .567   26.2   7.0   4.2    .9   3.3  1.5   2.05
.67   Pierce,Paul    Bos   38  .544   29.9   6.3   3.3    .7   3.6   .7   2.16
.62   Holiday,Jrue   Phi   37  .527   22.3   5.8   4.8    .7   2.0   .7   2.00
.61   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   37  .527   20.5   9.9   2.8   1.2   1.5  1.5   1.97
.60   Bryant,Kobe     LA   39  .498   28.2   4.9   3.8   1.2   3.2   .2   1.85

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.60   Hibbert,Roy    Ind   29  .571   18.5  15.9   2.4   1.0   2.9  5.4   2.50
.60   Harden,James   Okl   32  .658   24.9   6.4   5.6   2.7   2.5   .3   2.22
.58   Bynum,Andrew    LA   38  .627   20.2   9.1   1.1    .2   1.4  4.1   1.85
.56 Westbrook,Russel Okl   37  .520   23.8   4.0   5.7   2.2   2.5   .0   1.85
.56  Anthony,Carmelo NYK   41  .466   23.7   8.5   2.2    .9   2.9   .2   1.65

.56   Duncan,Tim      SA   30  .509   19.1   9.9   4.3   1.2   1.5  2.1   2.20
.53   Noah,Joakim    Chi   25  .714   21.7  10.6   2.9    .7    .4  1.4   2.59
.52   Nowitzki,Dirk  Dal   38  .546   26.2   6.8   1.7    .7   2.4   .0   1.64
.51   Conley,Mike    Mem   40  .631   18.7   4.2   7.8    .7   2.1   .0   1.56
.51   West,David     Ind   40  .486   18.0   9.8   3.0    .9   1.8   .5   1.54

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.50   Griffin,Blake  LAC   37  .566   23.5   6.7   3.5   1.7   3.2   .0   1.63
.49   Smith,Josh     Atl   28  .431   18.5  15.0   4.6    .3   3.2  1.0   2.10
.47   Davis,Glen     Orl   38  .491   19.9   9.1    .8    .7   1.4  1.0   1.48
.45   Gasol,Pau       LA   37  .524   14.5   7.6   4.9    .5   1.2  2.2   1.47
.45   Jefferson,Al   Uta   35  .521   17.7   8.8   2.2   1.3   1.3   .8   1.54

.45   Granger,Danny  Ind   40  .497   22.1   7.5   1.8    .5   3.2   .5   1.35
.42   Bosh,Chris     Mia   33  .602   21.0   8.5   2.1    .3   2.2  1.1   1.55
.42   Hawes,Spencer  Phi   25  .641   22.4   8.6   1.7    .7   1.4  1.4   1.99
.40   Gay,Rudy       Mem   40  .509   20.3   7.2   1.6   1.4   2.9   .0   1.20
.39   Chalmers,Mario Mia   36  .576   16.3   3.7   6.2   1.8   2.0   .3   1.30
Crow
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Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Crow »

Garnett the only big in the top 10 on this metric, but bigs are slightly overrepresented in the top 30.
Mike G
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Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Mike G »

First round leaders in eWins per game.
Note: Noah and Horford played just 3 games, Rose just 1; Rondo and Josh Smith each missed a game.
eW/G are per game played, and mpg is per team game.

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.206   James,Lebron   Mia   38  .586   36.1   6.5   6.6   2.1   4.0   .2   2.60
.194   Noah,Joakim    Chi   17  .714   21.6  10.2   3.1    .7    .4  1.4   2.81
.185   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   35  .486   17.8   5.1  11.4   3.0   3.2   .2   2.12
.171   Parker,Tony     SA   33  .564   28.5   3.5   9.5    .8   2.7   .0   2.48
.169   Rose,Derrick   Chi    6  .479   25.8   8.9   8.4   1.0   4.9  1.0   2.20

.165   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   38  .552   22.9  10.5   2.1   1.3   1.3  1.8   2.11
.162   Paul,Chris     LAC   39  .559   21.9   5.7   8.0   2.5   3.3   .1   2.00
.156   Durant,Kevin   Okl   42  .567   26.5   7.1   4.1    .9   3.3  1.5   1.79
.156   Pierce,Paul    Bos   38  .540   27.8   6.3   4.1   1.3   3.4   .6   1.98
.153   Harden,James   Okl   32  .658   25.4   6.4   5.5   2.7   2.4   .3   2.28

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.145   Smith,Josh     Atl   33  .426   17.0  14.2   4.6    .6   2.8   .9   1.78
.141   Hibbert,Roy    Ind   29  .550   17.1  14.8   1.9    .7   2.7  4.7   2.32
.139   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   36  .525   25.9   3.8   5.1   2.8   2.4  1.2   1.86
.137   Holiday,Jrue   Phi   39  .505   20.0   4.9   4.7   1.3   1.6   .8   1.69
.135   Horford,Al     Atl   18  .605   22.0   9.4   2.7   1.4   4.1  1.4   1.82

.131   Duncan,Tim      SA   30  .509   18.9   9.5   4.1   1.2   1.5  2.0   2.08
.131   Bryant,Kobe     LA   40  .526   27.8   3.8   4.0   1.0   2.9   .3   1.56
.121   Bynum,Andrew    LA   37  .557   17.4  10.9   1.2    .3   1.1  3.8   1.55
.118   Gasol,Marc     Mem   37  .586   17.3   7.6   3.6    .3   1.8  1.8   1.52
.115 Westbrook,Russel Okl   37  .520   23.9   4.0   5.7   2.3   2.5   .0   1.51

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.112   Bosh,Chris     Mia   33  .595   21.7   8.5   1.6    .4   1.7   .9   1.62
.112   Griffin,Blake  LAC   35  .541   20.8   7.1   3.1   2.2   2.6   .3   1.52
.112   West,David     Ind   39  .482   16.3   9.8   2.4   1.1   1.9   .7   1.36
.109   Nowitzki,Dirk  Dal   38  .546   26.4   6.7   1.7    .7   2.4   .0   1.36
.108   Anthony,Carmelo NY   41  .481   24.6   8.2   1.9   1.1   2.5   .2   1.27

.107   Lawson,Ty      Den   34  .561   21.9   2.5   5.6   1.0   1.2   .1   1.49
.102   Jefferson,Al   Uta   35  .521   17.8   9.0   2.2   1.3   1.3   .8   1.39
.101  Collison,Darren Ind   19  .603   21.9   3.6  10.7   2.9    .4   .0   2.61
.100   Hill,George    Ind   32  .587   20.9   3.8   3.4   1.1   1.4   .2   1.51
.100   Granger,Danny  Ind   41  .510   22.4   6.9   2.1    .4   2.9   .4   1.18
.100   Conley,Mike    Mem   40  .538   14.4   3.5   7.9    .8   2.1   .0   1.21
An average player, with and against average teams, would get .100 eWins per 48 minutes.
Mike G
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Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Mike G »

Watching the Clippers use 3 guards for most of the 4th quarter in game 7, I wondered about this strategy and why it worked.
Here's a little breakdown between the 8 teams that advanced from round 1, and those that didn't, by nominal position.

Code: Select all

1st round:  Winning Teams          Losing Teams         e480
pos     %Min   eWins  e480      %Min  eWins   e480   Advantage
1 PG     .25   7.23   1.33       .21   4.07    .87      .46
2 SG     .18   3.90    .99       .23   2.59    .51      .48
3 SF     .19   4.77   1.16       .20   3.28    .77      .39
4 PF     .26   6.46   1.13       .20   4.47   1.01      .12
5  C     .12   3.27   1.31       .15   3.86   1.16      .15

all     1.00  25.64   1.18      1.01  18.27    .84      .34
The totals sum to slightly over 1.00 eW/480 because I omitted players with <3 mpg.
The prevailing teams averaged better eWins per 480 at all positions, but were dominant at 1-3 .
Winners used "centers" even less than the losers did; but total minutes for "bigs" were greater among winners.
Losers actually seem to have most overused their weakest position -- shooting guard.
kjb
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Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by kjb »

Mike: If I'm reading your e-wins stat correctly, you'd expect Lebron + 4 exactly average players to win approximately 49.7 games over an 82-game schedule, assuming they're all playing 48 minutes. Yes?
Mike G
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Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Mike G »

Mmm, yeah -- if LeBron is at .206 eW per game, and that's from just 38 mpg.
The Knicks were pretty much an average team, so they may represent seasonal avg competition.

His per minute eWins rate was 2.60 times average in the Knicks series, a bit higher than his season rate.
His season WS rate was 2.98 avg, and his playoffs are shown as 3.48 of avg --
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2012.html
His PER is also up, not so drastically, in playoffs: from 30.7 to 31.4

He had almost as gaudy eWins numbers before I broke down and gave credit for non-productive minutes to guys like Joel Anthony and Shane Battier.
If LeBron is really good for .35 wins/48 and Wade is really .22, then those two plus any 3 NBA players can beat almost anyone. I'm compelled to believe that their below-avg teammates enable them to score and otherwise produce as they do.
Crow
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Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Crow »

The position distribution data for winning / losing teams is interesting. Thanks. What source did you use for position assignments?

The impression given, to me, is that small ball was winning, in terms of playing time and outcome. A comprehensive lineup vs lineup analysis would get at that more directly.
Mike G
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Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Mike G »

Another look at playoff leaders, round by round, where xy = (eWins * eWins/480 minutes)^0.5

Round 1:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates  tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480 eWins
1.64   James,Lebron Mia   5  38  .586   36.1   6.5   6.6   2.1   4.0   .2   2.60  1.03
1.51   Paul,Chris   LAC   7  39  .559   21.9   5.7   8.0   2.5   3.3   .1   2.00  1.13
1.45  Garnett,Kevin Bos   6  38  .552   22.9  10.5   2.1   1.3   1.3  1.8   2.11   .99
1.40   Rondo,Rajon  Bos   5  42  .486   17.8   5.1  11.4   3.0   3.2   .2   2.12   .93
1.36   Pierce,Paul  Bos   6  38  .540   27.8   6.3   4.1   1.3   3.4   .6   1.98   .93

1.30   Parker,Tony   SA   4  33  .564   28.5   3.5   9.5    .8   2.7   .0   2.48   .68
1.28   Hibbert,Roy  Ind   5  29  .550   17.1  14.8   1.9    .7   2.7  4.7   2.32   .71
1.28   Noah,Joakim  Chi   3  33  .714   21.6  10.2   3.1    .7    .4  1.4   2.81   .58
1.19   Bryant,Kobe   LA   7  40  .526   27.8   3.8   4.0   1.0   2.9   .3   1.56   .92
1.18   Harden,James Okl   4  32  .658   25.4   6.4   5.5   2.7   2.4   .3   2.28   .61
1.18   Holiday,Jrue Phi   6  39  .505   20.0   4.9   4.7   1.3   1.6   .8   1.69   .82
Rates are per 100 points and 44 rebounds per team.
Paul led round one in eWins, but he played 7 games.

Round 2:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates    tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
2.45   James,Lebron   Mia   6  42  .547   30.7  10.0   6.7   2.3   2.5   .6   3.37   1.78
1.67   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   7  41  .483   14.4   6.9  14.8   1.9   3.5   .1   2.17   1.29
1.55   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   6  38  .525   29.0   5.6   4.0   1.3   3.0  1.3   2.25   1.07
1.51   Durant,Kevin   Okl   5  40  .609   30.2   8.3   3.2   1.4   2.5   .5   2.34    .98
1.41 Westbrook,Russel Okl   5  36  .545   29.4   5.9   5.5   1.6    .8   .0   2.31    .86

1.33   Pierce,Paul    Bos   7  39  .571   21.1   7.2   3.6   1.6   2.4  1.2   1.77   1.01
1.27   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   7  36  .535   23.9  11.4   1.6   1.4   2.9  1.2   1.74    .93
1.24   Duncan,Tim      SA   4  34  .609   26.3  11.5   4.4   1.1   1.3  2.1   2.32    .66
1.11   Hibbert,Roy    Ind   6  33  .514   14.0  13.7   1.2    .2   2.0  2.5   1.73    .70
1.06   Bryant,Kobe     LA   5  39  .505   29.1   5.2   3.1   1.5   2.1   .0   1.66    .67
The top 8 moved on to round 3.
Conference Finals:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates   tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
1.92  James,Lebron   Mia   7  46  .573   31.6  10.2   3.7    .9   2.7  1.0   2.34   1.57
1.56  Durant,Kevin   Okl   6  43  .646   29.4   6.9   4.4   1.4   2.1  1.3   2.13   1.15
1.36  Rondo,Rajon    Bos   7  45  .521   17.2   6.1  10.0   1.5   3.1   .0   1.67   1.10
1.13  Wade,Dwyane    Mia   7  42  .508   19.9   5.7   5.4   1.2   2.8  1.2   1.44    .89
.97   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   7  36  .517   19.6  10.5   1.4    .7   2.3  1.4   1.34    .71

.96   Harden,James   Okl   6  32  .627   23.1   6.5   4.1   1.3   2.0   .0   1.51    .61
.86   Duncan,Tim      SA   6  35  .472   16.0  11.4   3.0    .4   1.9  2.4   1.31    .57
.81 Westbrook,Russel Okl   6  39  .445   15.8   6.0   7.8   1.4   3.1   .9   1.16    .56
.79   Parker,Tony     SA   6  38  .542   20.9   4.0   6.3    .8   2.9   .0   1.14    .54
.78   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   7  27  .494    8.2  14.1   1.9    .7   1.1   .4   1.23    .49
LeBron looks like the dominant player in every round.
Finals:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates   tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480 eWins
1.44  James,Lebron   Mia   5  44  .546   25.4   9.6   7.7   1.3   3.1   .3   2.12   .97
1.05  Durant,Kevin   Okl   5  43  .640   29.7   5.7   1.9   1.2   3.2   .9   1.58   .70
.99   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   5  41  .504   20.7   6.1   6.1   1.3   2.5  1.1   1.52   .64
.98 Westbrook,Russel Okl   5  42  .493   22.1   6.2   6.5    .9   1.9   .3   1.48   .65
.62   Bosh,Chris     Mia   5  36  .518   13.6  10.6    .3    .6   1.0  1.2   1.00   .38

.46   Chalmers,Mario Mia   5  37  .559   11.0   2.9   5.1   1.8   2.0   .4    .75   .29
.45   Harden,James   Okl   5  33  .517   13.2   5.7   4.2   1.3   2.6   .0    .76   .26
.44   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   5  26  .455    8.1   8.1   1.2    .6    .3  2.8    .84   .23
.44   Battier,Shane  Mia   5  38  .841   13.6   3.7    .5    .8    .2   .0    .70   .27
.32   Collison,Nick  Okl   5  17  .563    7.1  10.4   1.3   1.2    .8   .4    .76   .13
Crow
Posts: 10623
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Crow »

Mike G wrote:Watching the Clippers use 3 guards for most of the 4th quarter in game 7, I wondered about this strategy and why it worked.
Here's a little breakdown between the 8 teams that advanced from round 1, and those that didn't, by nominal position.

Code: Select all

1st round:  Winning Teams          Losing Teams         e480
pos     %Min   eWins  e480      %Min  eWins   e480   Advantage
1 PG     .25   7.23   1.33       .21   4.07    .87      .46
2 SG     .18   3.90    .99       .23   2.59    .51      .48
3 SF     .19   4.77   1.16       .20   3.28    .77      .39
4 PF     .26   6.46   1.13       .20   4.47   1.01      .12
5  C     .12   3.27   1.31       .15   3.86   1.16      .15

all     1.00  25.64   1.18      1.01  18.27    .84      .34
The totals sum to slightly over 1.00 eW/480 because I omitted players with <3 mpg.
The prevailing teams averaged better eWins per 480 at all positions, but were dominant at 1-3 .
Winners used "centers" even less than the losers did; but total minutes for "bigs" were greater among winners.
Losers actually seem to have most overused their weakest position -- shooting guard.
I wonder if these trends hold up over say the last 5 years or if they bounce around a lot.
Crow
Posts: 10623
Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm

Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Crow »

Mike G wrote:Another look at playoff leaders, round by round, where xy = (eWins * eWins/480 minutes)^0.5

Round 1:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates  tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480 eWins
1.64   James,Lebron Mia   5  38  .586   36.1   6.5   6.6   2.1   4.0   .2   2.60  1.03
1.51   Paul,Chris   LAC   7  39  .559   21.9   5.7   8.0   2.5   3.3   .1   2.00  1.13
1.45  Garnett,Kevin Bos   6  38  .552   22.9  10.5   2.1   1.3   1.3  1.8   2.11   .99
1.40   Rondo,Rajon  Bos   5  42  .486   17.8   5.1  11.4   3.0   3.2   .2   2.12   .93
1.36   Pierce,Paul  Bos   6  38  .540   27.8   6.3   4.1   1.3   3.4   .6   1.98   .93

1.30   Parker,Tony   SA   4  33  .564   28.5   3.5   9.5    .8   2.7   .0   2.48   .68
1.28   Hibbert,Roy  Ind   5  29  .550   17.1  14.8   1.9    .7   2.7  4.7   2.32   .71
1.28   Noah,Joakim  Chi   3  33  .714   21.6  10.2   3.1    .7    .4  1.4   2.81   .58
1.19   Bryant,Kobe   LA   7  40  .526   27.8   3.8   4.0   1.0   2.9   .3   1.56   .92
1.18   Harden,James Okl   4  32  .658   25.4   6.4   5.5   2.7   2.4   .3   2.28   .61
1.18   Holiday,Jrue Phi   6  39  .505   20.0   4.9   4.7   1.3   1.6   .8   1.69   .82
Rates are per 100 points and 44 rebounds per team.
Paul led round one in eWins, but he played 7 games.

Round 2:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates    tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
2.45   James,Lebron   Mia   6  42  .547   30.7  10.0   6.7   2.3   2.5   .6   3.37   1.78
1.67   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   7  41  .483   14.4   6.9  14.8   1.9   3.5   .1   2.17   1.29
1.55   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   6  38  .525   29.0   5.6   4.0   1.3   3.0  1.3   2.25   1.07
1.51   Durant,Kevin   Okl   5  40  .609   30.2   8.3   3.2   1.4   2.5   .5   2.34    .98
1.41 Westbrook,Russel Okl   5  36  .545   29.4   5.9   5.5   1.6    .8   .0   2.31    .86

1.33   Pierce,Paul    Bos   7  39  .571   21.1   7.2   3.6   1.6   2.4  1.2   1.77   1.01
1.27   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   7  36  .535   23.9  11.4   1.6   1.4   2.9  1.2   1.74    .93
1.24   Duncan,Tim      SA   4  34  .609   26.3  11.5   4.4   1.1   1.3  2.1   2.32    .66
1.11   Hibbert,Roy    Ind   6  33  .514   14.0  13.7   1.2    .2   2.0  2.5   1.73    .70
1.06   Bryant,Kobe     LA   5  39  .505   29.1   5.2   3.1   1.5   2.1   .0   1.66    .67
The top 8 moved on to round 3.
Conference Finals:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates   tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480  eWins
1.92  James,Lebron   Mia   7  46  .573   31.6  10.2   3.7    .9   2.7  1.0   2.34   1.57
1.56  Durant,Kevin   Okl   6  43  .646   29.4   6.9   4.4   1.4   2.1  1.3   2.13   1.15
1.36  Rondo,Rajon    Bos   7  45  .521   17.2   6.1  10.0   1.5   3.1   .0   1.67   1.10
1.13  Wade,Dwyane    Mia   7  42  .508   19.9   5.7   5.4   1.2   2.8  1.2   1.44    .89
.97   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   7  36  .517   19.6  10.5   1.4    .7   2.3  1.4   1.34    .71

.96   Harden,James   Okl   6  32  .627   23.1   6.5   4.1   1.3   2.0   .0   1.51    .61
.86   Duncan,Tim      SA   6  35  .472   16.0  11.4   3.0    .4   1.9  2.4   1.31    .57
.81 Westbrook,Russel Okl   6  39  .445   15.8   6.0   7.8   1.4   3.1   .9   1.16    .56
.79   Parker,Tony     SA   6  38  .542   20.9   4.0   6.3    .8   2.9   .0   1.14    .54
.78   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   7  27  .494    8.2  14.1   1.9    .7   1.1   .4   1.23    .49
LeBron looks like the dominant player in every round.
Finals:

Code: Select all

xy      per36 rates   tm   G  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480 eWins
1.44  James,Lebron   Mia   5  44  .546   25.4   9.6   7.7   1.3   3.1   .3   2.12   .97
1.05  Durant,Kevin   Okl   5  43  .640   29.7   5.7   1.9   1.2   3.2   .9   1.58   .70
.99   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   5  41  .504   20.7   6.1   6.1   1.3   2.5  1.1   1.52   .64
.98 Westbrook,Russel Okl   5  42  .493   22.1   6.2   6.5    .9   1.9   .3   1.48   .65
.62   Bosh,Chris     Mia   5  36  .518   13.6  10.6    .3    .6   1.0  1.2   1.00   .38

.46   Chalmers,Mario Mia   5  37  .559   11.0   2.9   5.1   1.8   2.0   .4    .75   .29
.45   Harden,James   Okl   5  33  .517   13.2   5.7   4.2   1.3   2.6   .0    .76   .26
.44   Ibaka,Serge    Okl   5  26  .455    8.1   8.1   1.2    .6    .3  2.8    .84   .23
.44   Battier,Shane  Mia   5  38  .841   13.6   3.7    .5    .8    .2   .0    .70   .27
.32   Collison,Nick  Okl   5  17  .563    7.1  10.4   1.3   1.2    .8   .4    .76   .13
Hibbert the only player listed above or much above 260 lbs (except Lebron)?
Guys 6-3 and below overrepresented? (are long arms compensating and changing the story?)
Mike G
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Location: Asheville, NC

Re: 2012 Playoff stats and summaries

Post by Mike G »

Another thread led to detection of anomalies in playoff Win Shares, the basketball-reference stat.
Based on pythagorean-expected wins, discrepencies of several percent have been noticed.
Here in one table are the 2012 playoff teams, ranked by their pythagorean win%.
pWins and pLosses are shown; also team WinShares as the totals of player WS; team WS per 48; and team minutes-weighted PER

Code: Select all

pyth%  pW/48   tm   WS/48   wsx     WS     pW    pL    PER
.743   .147   MIA   .155   .038   17.97   17.1   5.9   16.5
.700   .140   SAS   .136  -.018    9.55    9.8   4.2   16.5
.635   .127   OKC   .129   .012   12.94   12.7   7.3   17.7
.555   .110   IND   .113   .014    6.26    6.1   4.9   14.4

.540   .106   BOS   .109   .015   11.09   10.8   9.2   14.4
.529   .104   MEM   .110   .030    3.91    3.7   3.3   14.2
.514   .103   DEN   .103   .000    3.60    3.6   3.4   16.2
.454   .091   PHI   .099   .043    6.46    5.9   7.1   13.8

.433   .087   CHI   .082  -.026    2.45    2.6   3.4   12.9
.350   .070   LAL   .075   .023    4.48    4.2   7.8   15.7
.336   .067   LAC   .074   .039    4.13    3.7   7.3   14.8
.317   .062   ATL   .068   .029    2.07    1.9   4.1   11.1

.275   .055   DAL   .054  -.004    1.08    1.1   2.9   14.0
.160   .031   ORL   .031  -.003     .78     .8   4.2   11.9
.100   .020   NYK   .013  -.034     .33     .5   4.5   11.3
.075   .015   UTA  -.002  -.087    -.05     .3   3.7   12.5
wsx = (WS - pW)/G
Positive numbers in this column indicate "too many" WS are granted to players, relative to their team pW.

Denver lost to the Lakers in round 1 (4-3) but outscored LA by a few points. Still, a PER of 16.2 seems high?
LA then routed by OKC, but their PER is 15.7 ?
And OKC has by far the best PER.

Then there are the WS oddities.
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