The immediate future of the Golden State Warriors

[mystic]

Trade Lee this year.

Honestly, I'm not suggesting that they should keep Lee at all costs, but you are delusional, if you think the Warriors can just trade Lee for instant cap relief and a 1st rounder.

And of course you can get cap relief and a first for him. The Blazers got a 1st and cap relief for Gerald Wallace. The Lakers got a 1st and cap relief for Lamar Odom. The Rockets got a 1st and Dragic for Aaron Brooks. The Rockets also got a 1st and Thabeet for Shane Battier.

Is that some sort of a joke? Check out what kind of contract Lee has and compare that to Odom's, Wallace', Brooks' and Battier's. And that is just one aspect here which differs a lot.

Lee averaged 20 and 10 this year, he's about as healthy as it gets, just finished his age-28 season, and should have a lot of productive years remaining for the right team.

You just argued that Lee is holding the Warriors back and now you are suggesting that they can sell him high, because of his "production"? You wanted to argue with "game theory", but obviously you haven't understood the very basic of "game theory"; that all involved players have all informations. So, if all have all informations, all teams know that Lee is not good at all, thus your argumentation to sell Lee for that price fails badly.

But strategy #2 is essentially trading David Lee's 4yrs and $57 mil remaining for the #7 pick in next year's draft, which should be a no-brainer move for a team with a dodgy financial situation and not enough talent to eventually compete.

If that is a "no-brainer", the receiving team is really dumb in order to do that. Don't you get that? For sure it would be a great blessing when they can get rid of David Lee, just that it is really, really, really hard to see that they can get instant caprelief and a 1st rounder for him. I would even go that far that with the new CBA they have to be lucky to get a worse player with one or two year less for him.
Lee doesn't have any kind of star appeal, he doesn't have the button "upside" stickied on him, he just has 20/10 with no defense and a 57/4 contract attached to him. The 4 years are the new max years a team can give out for a non-bird free agent, just to understand that part. The 4 years means that the last three years are within the new harder luxury tax years AND if a team trades for Lee they can't use the amnesty for him. Lee right now has negative value. Caprelief and a 1st is positive value. Odom had great positive value in 2011 as the 6MOY and his one year contract ($2.4m buyout for 2012/13), Wallace had a one year $9.5m (the chances were great that Wallace will not use his player option) and the Blazers actually took back more money than they sent out. Brooks was on a rookie scale contract still and he is still RFA, Battier had an expiring contract while the Rockets took back Thabeet with over $5m left for 2011/12. No, none of those trades is even remotely close to trading Lee and his 57/4 for instant cap relief and a 1st rounder.
For Lee you can only hope that he developes a strong midrange game, better passing and learns how to defend in order to fit in with Bogut.


Crow, Bogut's value comes from defense, not offense. The Warriors can generate enough offense with Curry getting more touches, Klay Thompson showed that he can replace the scoring by Ellis while being a better defender, etc. What they really need is defense and a big, strong defensive center is exactly what they needed. Now, Curry and Bogut just need to be healthy.

[EvanZ]

Bogut had a moderately weak offensive RAPM this season (-1.2 prior-informed).

Milwaukee ranked 4th in DRTG last season when Bogut played 65 games. They ranked 16th in DRTG this season when he played 12 games. No other major changes (except adding Monta/Udoh after the trade deadline). +4.0 on multi-year DRAPM. If healthy, I don't think there's any question that he will radically improve GSW defense.

[EvanZ]

For Lee you can only hope that he developes a strong midrange game, better passing and learns how to defend in order to fit in with Bogut.

In Lee's defense, mid-range shooting and passing are two of his greatest strengths, such as they are.

[xkonk]

Not to make a strong claim about Lee's value, but I think it's fair to say that not all NBA GMs are as attuned to stats as the people here. Just two years ago he was traded for a second-round pick and three other players, and it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility that someone might be interested in a 20-10 type player who was also an All-Star just two seasons back. Getting a good pick and cap help might be unlikely, but it doesn't seem completely outlandish. Also, with the upcoming changes to the salary cap, some low-spending team might be willing to pick him up just for his contract.

[EvanZ]

So, uh, if you had the cap room to spend on Lee, why wouldn't you go after someone like Ibaka or another free agent PF?

Remember, the rationale is that GSW should use the money we would save on his contract to go after a better free agent PF.

If you can come up with a good argument for why a team would specifically go after Lee (and not the free agent PF that GSW should try to acquire), maybe we can discuss whether GSW might want to keep him for similar reasons.

I don't think it's good enough to say, "Well, teams have made mistakes in the past, so let's hope for that."

Warriors fans would be happy to have Serge Ibaka and a first round pick for David Lee. Somehow, I don't see that happening.

[mystic]

In Lee's defense, mid-range shooting and passing are two of his greatest strengths, such as they are.

In comparison to his other skils that is true, but I hardly would call that "strong midrange game", if someone can hit open jumpers from 15ft, while being clearly worse when going farther out. We probably can also agree that his passing can be improved, and with that I mean also the decision to whom and when to pass. The issue is that I can see similar problems with Bogut/lee with spacing and occupied room as we see with Chandler/Stoudemire.

xkonk, don't confuse sign and trade with a normal trade. The Warriors wanted to sign Lee, they didn't have the capspace in order to do that. Thus they had to make a S&T deal to create the necessary space for Lee, while giving up some talent to pay for that "capspace". Lee was also able to get a better contract when doing a sign and trade. Such a thing doesn't exists anymore in that way. And, more importantly, the new CBA really changes the economics of a trade. Capspace becomes more valuable, and long contracts are becoming a bigger issue. We will likely see more salary dump trades like Odom's especially when we reach the 2013/14 season, because of the much harsher luxury tax. I wouldn't be surprised, if a player like Pau Gasol is either getting traded for nothing or even amnestied by then. No way is a team taking on David Lee on this contract unless they are sending out a similar bad contract. No team will pick Lee up for his contract, they can just give out higher one year deals to some free agents instead, that is a much better economic solution for the min salary cap floor. Understand the implications of the new CBA (and the fact that no team can use the amnesty on Lee) and you will understand that getting capspace for Lee is outlandish at that point.

[mystic]

So, uh, if you had the cap room to spend on Lee, why wouldn't you go after someone like Ibaka or another free agent PF?

Ibaka doesn't become a free agent this summer. But the point of your post is really important. Additional to that it is not unlikely that the Jazz are trading either Millsap or Jefferson, both with expiring contracts. If a team is willing to spend their capspace on a frontcourt player, I somehow think the Jazz will sneak in and take that capspace.
It is also important to note that a non-bird free agent can't be signed for more than 4 years and that while the yearly raise is clearly lower than Lee's. If the new CBA would have been in place two years ago, David Lee would not have gotten that contract. He wasn't a bargain at that time with the old CBA and that didn't get better with the new CBA.

[EvanZ]

So, uh, if you had the cap room to spend on Lee, why wouldn't you go after someone like Ibaka or another free agent PF?

Ibaka doesn't become a free agent this summer.

I know, but that is when we would have the cap room. We would have to take back an expiring contract for Lee. So the cap room wouldn't be there in 2012-13 anyway.

And by 2014 both Biedrins and Jefferson's contracts would be coming off the book, anyway.

[EvanZ]

In Lee's defense, mid-range shooting and passing are two of his greatest strengths, such as they are.

In comparison to his other skils that is true, but I hardly would call that "strong midrange game", if someone can hit open jumpers from 15ft, while being clearly worse when going farther out. We probably can also agree that his passing can be improved, and with that I mean also the decision to whom and when to pass. The issue is that I can see similar problems with Bogut/lee with spacing and occupied room as we see with Chandler/Stoudemire.

I watch a lot of David Lee, and I'd have to say his best skill is passing. There's a reason his ORAPM is +2. He's turned into a great offensive player, and it's not just his shooting. In fact, he might be the best passer on the team, including Curry. Unfortunately, he's as bad on defense (-2 DRAPM) as he is good on offense.

[tarheeljks]

Udoh was a liability on rebounding. Bogut will help on defensive rebounding but not much on offensive rebounding.
Sullinger sounds like the right pick if available, with Henson as second choice as you suggest. Ezeli at 30 might be good too. Biedrins and Tyler shouldn't play at all.

Warriors have lots of guys who can play SF but they should try to trade for one with a better impact. Or draft Kevin Jones at 30. I like the idea of going big at SG as much as possible for this team.

i always used to say this as i cursed his low rebounding #'s, but i noticed--per 82 games-- that the reb #'s were better w/him on than off (~3% pts better on both ends) and when i watched him more on the glass he was definitely doing the "little things" like consistently boxing his man out, tipping balls, grabbing contested rebounds etc*. the absolute reb %'s were not that high, but some of that can be attributed to him playing lots of minutes in the aforementioned small ball lineups. to be clear, i'm not calling him a great rebounder. i'd expect a great rebounder to get more himself in addition to doing the other little stuff, esp given the small lineups, but i do think he is better than his individual reb%'s suggest. for instance, i think he is a better rebounder than david lee (i know that sounds crazy).



*i think evan may have referenced a notion on his blog at some point, so if i have unwittingly stolen an idea then sorry lol.

advising repeated tanking is fantasy land stuff. it's not feasible in reality-- at some point you have got to try to win some games. the thunder could just as easily be crying over greg oden


i think woyas found something in klay thompson. know he finished the year in neg rapm, but i'd be interested to see some pre/post all star break splits or something b/c he was a completely different player. on both ends really, but he progressed so much offensively through the year. he was absolutely brutal initially, but i have a hard time believing he was a negative offensive player by the last 15-20 games of the year

In Lee's defense, mid-range shooting and passing are two of his greatest strengths, such as they are.

In comparison to his other skils that is true, but I hardly would call that "strong midrange game", if someone can hit open jumpers from 15ft, while being clearly worse when going farther out. We probably can also agree that his passing can be improved, and with that I mean also the decision to whom and when to pass. The issue is that I can see similar problems with Bogut/lee with spacing and occupied room as we see with Chandler/Stoudemire.

i'm no david lee fan, but i disagree pretty strongly with this, though i can see why you would say it based on his play this year. he had good shooting %'s on volume from 16+ the previous two seasons (43%) and good assist #'s as well. i'm willing to chalk up the poor shooting to variance and the weaker passing #'s simply to playing with worse players (his fga/usg rose. tov actually fell a bit). no point in arguing about the shooting much beyond that b/c the %'s were what they were, but where are you finding fault in his passing? i felt that, as usual, he demonstrated very good vision and awareness, moving the ball and typically making the "right play." it could be fair to say he over-passed at times given his running mates.

also disagree with the chandler/amare comparison. amare was primarily an iso and a pnr guy on the suns, though he performed well in other areas too. he largely became the former when he went to nyk, so on that alone he has already lost his most efficient form of offense regardless of chandler and we know that isos are not that efficient in a vacuum. hard to pinpoint exactly how chandler hurt him and the degree to which health/fitness affected him, but regardless, i think the result highlights the fact that amare is pretty singularly focused on scoring when it comes to offense. for years he demonstrated a devastating ability to do exactly what he wanted when he wanted. now that this is no longer the case, be it temporarily or permanently, we see that his offensive game lacks some depth. when the defense can successfully rotate he is more likely to force a shot than to make "the right play" in that particular instance (assuming it's not deep in the shot clock or something like that). lee's ability to take what he wants has never been nearly as pronounced as amare's was, and even now it is worse than hobbled amare's lol. however, his basketball iq, or w/e you want to call it is much higher. he's adept enough at scoring to force rotations and also has the awareness to make a play when he is cut off. that's not to say he never takes bad shots, but he generally reads and reacts. this goes for even when he does not have the ball. amare scores well on cuts and the like, but in spite of this he still creates offensive clutter by not spacing himself properly. he always wants to go to the ball (nbaplaybook ran a good article on this a year or so ago). lee knows how to remove himself from the play, while still making himself available if he sees a hole in the defense. he will certainly have to make some sacrifices to accommodate bogut, but i don't see many reasons to believe why he will struggle to do so. where are you drawing the comparison to amare/chandler?


edit: heh, i disagree w/lee being a better passer than curry almost as much as i disagree with saying lee isn't a good passer. lee makes good plays and punishes defenses even when they rotate, but curry does the same and also practically conjures assists

[Crow]

I was being simplistic just using the boxscore to comment on Udoh's rebounding. I usually check team rebounding and A4PM factors. It is worth knowing that raw rebounding with him on vs off is better on both sides. But it is also worth knowing that the A4PM factor estimates are that he has a slightly negative impact on offensive rebounding and a little more positive impact on defensive rebounding. Lee was estimated more negative on the offensive glass and more positive on the defensive glass but neither was estimated to have a dramatic impact. So for Udoh is was weak boxscore, good team on/off and mixed and not a major factor on A4PM. A4PM essentially falls in the middle of the 2 other snapshot views and might be closer to right in calling him not a major overall rebounding factor. Look at just one of the other perspectives and you think you have the answer. Look at 2 or all 3 and you might feel that there is a different answer or you might feel that it is up in the air.

[EvanZ]

I should say that my own A4PM paints a much worse picture of Lee than RAPM. Oh, well. So it goes.

[Crow]

"OKC did it once."

Maybe they only tanked once. Maybe they were just bad the other consecutive time they won less than 25 games. Or maybe they tanked twice. Tanking is in the eye of the beholder, barring a rare outright admission. I don't think debating tanking vs just being bad is very productive. But Presti got two of his top tier picks that way.

That his predecessor got nothing from the 2 previous seasons with <35 wins does not speak directly to Presti's actions but they had extra shots at lottery picks in a multi-year period. The organization had 5 lottery shots in 4 years and several other first round picks for being bad and making trades of current assets for future ones. But but one of his top picks hit and one of the lower ones did too. They would not be the current Thunder without getting 8+ first round picks in 4-5 years to select with or use in other ways to get to where they wanted to be. They would probably not be fully who they are now with just one season under 25 wins or less than 4 consecutive seasons below 35 wins.

Multiple season tanking is no sure cure. It may not be better than fighting thru mediocrity or mildly bad seasons. But 2 seasons of tanking or just being very bad is not extreme and is a fairly attractive option conceptually.

[EvanZ]

Multiple season tanking is no sure cure. It may not be better than fighting thru mediocrity or mildly bad seasons. But 2 seasons of tanking or just being very bad is not extreme and is a fairly attractive option conceptually.

For the Warriors, they couldn't tank again unless Curry and Bogut both get hurt again. They won't be bad enough otherwise to do it.

And it's unlikely both those guys get hurt on game 1 of the season.

The Warriors already have a couple of pieces, maybe 3, that are not going to be easy to find in a given year.

Let's take this year. Aside from Davis, unlikely that any player has the defensive impact that Bogut does. And safe to say Stephen Curry would be the #1 PG off the board, and probably a top 5 pick. And the only wing I might trade Klay Thompson for right now is Beal, but I'm not even sure I would do that, knowing what a good shooter Klay already is and how smart a player he is.

[mystic]

I watch a lot of David Lee, and I'd have to say his best skill is passing.

I would rather say that his best skill is positioning and finishing around the rim, but that maybe also due to the sample of games I watched. Not quite sure which game it was (either the vs. the Lakers or Mavericks), but in that game Lee had quite a few bad passes, where the angle wasn't there at all or it was pretty clear that the passing lane will be closed anytime soon. That led to a few turnovers. But I also know that I watched him less than you did and the numbers somewhat support your position to a degree.

i'm no david lee fan, but i disagree pretty strongly with this, though i can see why you would say it based on his play this year. he had good shooting %'s on volume from 16+ the previous two seasons (43%) and good assist #'s as well.

Sorry, but a midrange game consists of more than just being able to convert 15ft shot attempts from pick&pop situations. And ALL teams are willing to give up that shot, if it means the guy taking the shot is converting it just with 43%. That is WELL below league average efficiency, that hardly forces teams to open up the lane to cover Lee. Look at Kevin Garnett for example, the guy converts such shots with 50+% and the teams are still willing to give him the shot (and he punished the 76ers twice for that already). Those shots aren't scary at all and with Bogut also being most efficient in the same spots in which Lee is most efficient as a scorer, it will for sure cause trouble with the floor spacing, making it difficult to get open lanes for cutters and getting better shot opportunities.

but where are you finding fault in his passing? i felt that, as usual, he demonstrated very good vision and awareness, moving the ball and typically making the "right play." it could be fair to say he over-passed at times given his running mates.

I didn't say that he is a bad passer, somehow saying that someone should improve in a certain area seems to be understood as if that guy is really bad. I obviously watched only a small fraction of Lee's game in comparison to others and my judgement based on that might be a bit off, but his numbers aren't looking like the greatest passing big ever either, but you sound like that would be the case. Lee is a willing passer, but that doesn't mean he is flawless. In the games I watched I saw him throwing quite a few bad passes (wrong angle, not accurate enough in order to get a quick catch&shoot situation, seeing a passing lane where no passing lane was and the defender sneaked in to steal the ball and the issue that he passed the ball instead of taking the shot (you called it overpassing)). As I said for me the aspect of passing it to the right player at the right time was something I noticed to be a problem for Lee.

also disagree with the chandler/amare comparison.

Honestly, I was talking about spacing and occupying the similar spots for efficient shots. Chandler needs the space around the basket, Stoudemire needs that space too. And Stoudemire can convert the same pick&pop shots with a similar efficiency as Lee. That doesn't open up the lane at all. Yeah, Lee is a more willing and better passer, but overall it is more about spacing than about passing. Lee was also at his best offensively when nobody else was in the lane, when Lee played C. The Warriors played much better offensively, because Lee biggest strength is rather finishing close shots than providing spacing or passing.
Stoudemire/Chandler showed huge problems playing together, because no team is doubling Stoudemire to prevent midrange jumpers, the lane is clogged, no space for cutters, no spacing to get perimeter players better shots. That is not an iso-issue, it is a question about floor spacing, getting the space for penetrations or cutters.

I didn't talk about Stoudemire's preference for his own shot or iso situations, because those things weren't a big problem when Stoudemire was not playing with Chandler on the court, but rather as a C. Stoudemire was basically rendered useless with Chandler on the court, while being much better offensively when playing together with a guy like Novak for example. With a stretch 4 the spacing is much better and the opportunities for Stoudemire to finish close to the basket are becoming more. It is a pretty simple concept. And I see a similar issue with Lee. When Lee had no other big occupying the middle next to him, he was better offensively. And not only with the Warriors, but also before with the Knicks where he played that position much more often.