9 of the last 11 champs had an offensive efficiency of at least 108 in the regular season. All but two of the last 20+ champs also had a regular season defensive efficiency of better than 105, usually much better.
What numbers are needed this season for the title winner, or will just happen to take them to ultimate victory?
Only 3 teams over 108 on offense. Only 9 over 105.
19 teams better than 105 on defensive efficiency but it is a down season for offense (and there has only been a small fraction of improvement in the average 1/3rd of the way thru). 14 better than 102. 8 at or below 100.
Only team over 108 on offense and below 105 on defense, the standards mentioned above for champs are Chicago and Miami, with Chicago well better than 100 on defense and Miami just short of it. Clippers almost qualify for 108/105 but miss by just over a half point on defense. The Thunder just miss on offense. Nobody else makes both of these historical standards though the Spurs and Nuggets are also fairly close.
Are these the top 6 contenders? Philly, Portland, Dallas. Atlanta, Lakers, Orlando, etc. at least are not coming at it with dual strength.
If you set the criteria at 105 / 102 (3 points less on each standard) the qualifiers are just Chicago, Miami, Philly, and San Antonio. Only Chicago, Miami make both lists. The Thunder just miss both. Nobody else had both or one and within 1 pt on the other. Atlanta, Portland and Houston just miss on this second set of criteria but weren't close to getting both on the first set.
if you go to the toughest criteria set of over 108 on offense and better than 100 on defensive efficiency, Chicago is the only team averaging that in the regular season but Miami just barely missing. How many teams are capable of doing it in the playoffs though? Nobody did that last playoffs but Chicago wasn't that far off. Last playoffs, 3 of the best on playoff offensive efficiency made the conference finals. Only 2 of the best 4 on defensive efficiency. The team with the biggest playoff efficiency differential (Dallas) won. This season Chicago has the biggest differential. Miami had the biggest regular season differential.
Time will tell. Dallas only met one regular season standard and was like 8th best on regular season differential. The past 5 champs though meet both efficiency criteria with 2 also having the best regular season differential. Dallas had the weakest recent regular season case but got hot.
Offensive / defensive efficiencies of next champ
Re: Offensive / defensive efficiencies of next champ
3 of the 5 teams still alive were over 108 on offense and below 105 on defense in the regular season. 3 of 5 meet these criteria in the playoffs too. I am pretty sure the eventual champ will.
Re: Offensive / defensive efficiencies of next champ
Over the last 38 years the champion was in average 3.3 +/- 2.3 pts better on offense than league average and 3.4 +/- 2.3 pts better on defense. So, going by the 104.6 pts per 100 possession as league average for this season, the champion will probably have between 105.6 and 110.2 on offense and between 103.5 and 98.9 on defense.
Re: Offensive / defensive efficiencies of next champ
Actually, Dallas missed Nowitzki last season for 9 games and played -6.2 during that stretch. Which means with Nowitzki playing they were at +6.0. That is better than the 2010 Lakers. I would also say that 2006 is still recent and the Heat were worse than the Mavericks last season. But then again, with Wade and O'Neal playing they were actually on par with the 2006 Mavericks, which means at +6.8.Crow wrote: Time will tell. Dallas only met one regular season standard and was like 8th best on regular season differential. The past 5 champs though meet both efficiency criteria with 2 also having the best regular season differential. Dallas had the weakest recent regular season case but got hot.
Re: Offensive / defensive efficiencies of next champ
If you go by Mystic's tougher defensive efficiency confidence interval (I purposely was looser there), the Spurs and Thunder just barely squeak into the champ range. Miami in the regular season comfortably met both standards. Boston and Philly are clearly outside the range of champs on offensive efficiency.
38 years covers a lot of eras. I think I prefer to focus more on the last decade.
38 years covers a lot of eras. I think I prefer to focus more on the last decade.
Re: Offensive / defensive efficiencies of next champ
"9 of the last 11 champs had an offensive efficiency of at least 108 in the regular season. All but two of the last 20+ champs also had a regular season defensive efficiency of better than 105, usually much better."
Heat missed on the offensive standard with a mark of 106.6. Maybe cut them slack because of the lockout.
They were at 100.2 on the defensive side. That is much better than my modest listed standard even considering the lockout. Only one conference finalist had a better defensive efficiency. Two had a better offensive efficiency. The Heat were a little light on offense compared to Mystic's stated range but were near the median of his defensive range.
Thunder with the best playoff offensive efficiency and by far the worst playoff defensive efficiency. Does a team with an efficiency style that might be called "Phoenix further to the east" change anything significant on the roster or coaching staff after this spring run and that playoff defensive performance? Nope.
Average regular season defensive efficiency rank of the last 5 title winners is 4.6. No team in the west was at that level last season. Will any rise up to that level? The Lakers obviously want to, probably should be expected to. Doubt Thunder will. Really doubt Spurs will. They seem to have largely given up on that in the name of having a high-potency offense. It is pretty close to essential to do so to get a title next time? I'd guess so given the likelihood of facing the Heat, though Dallas showed that 8th best on regular season defense was enough if you got really hot on offense in the playoffs.
Heat missed on the offensive standard with a mark of 106.6. Maybe cut them slack because of the lockout.
They were at 100.2 on the defensive side. That is much better than my modest listed standard even considering the lockout. Only one conference finalist had a better defensive efficiency. Two had a better offensive efficiency. The Heat were a little light on offense compared to Mystic's stated range but were near the median of his defensive range.
Thunder with the best playoff offensive efficiency and by far the worst playoff defensive efficiency. Does a team with an efficiency style that might be called "Phoenix further to the east" change anything significant on the roster or coaching staff after this spring run and that playoff defensive performance? Nope.
Average regular season defensive efficiency rank of the last 5 title winners is 4.6. No team in the west was at that level last season. Will any rise up to that level? The Lakers obviously want to, probably should be expected to. Doubt Thunder will. Really doubt Spurs will. They seem to have largely given up on that in the name of having a high-potency offense. It is pretty close to essential to do so to get a title next time? I'd guess so given the likelihood of facing the Heat, though Dallas showed that 8th best on regular season defense was enough if you got really hot on offense in the playoffs.