2012 East Conf. Finals: Bos-Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 1, Celtics 0
Score 93-79
Pyth wins: .90 - .10; eWins .70 - .30

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.25   James,Lebron   Mia   44  .604   36.3  11.7   3.1    .8   2.5  2.5   2.70
.19   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   38  .688   32.1   3.1   8.4   1.0   3.8  1.9   2.41
.16   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   31  .605   33.5  12.8   2.0   1.2   1.2  1.2   2.44
.10   Battier,Shane  Mia   36  .455   10.4  11.0   2.8   1.0    .0  2.0   1.28
.08   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos   12  1.00   29.8  12.5   2.6    .0    .0   .0   3.07

.07   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   44  .400   12.4   8.1   5.6    .8   3.3   .0    .72
.06   Chalmers,Mario Mia   40  .409    8.3   5.0   4.9    .0    .9   .9    .66
.05   Miller,Mike    Mia   12  .800   37.0   9.4    .0    .0   2.9   .0   1.91
.03   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia   18  .667   11.3  11.0    .0    .0   2.0  2.0    .89
.03   Anthony,Joel   Mia   20  .375    5.0  11.5    .0    .0   1.7  3.5    .73

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.01   Allen,Ray      Bos   39  .286    4.0   5.1   1.7   1.9    .9   .0    .12
.00   Jones,James    Mia   10  .500   11.3   3.7    .0    .0    .0   .0    .18
.00   Pierce,Paul    Bos   40  .333    8.7   2.0   2.7    .9    .9   .0    .01
.00   Dooling,Keyon  Bos   12  .500    8.6    .0   2.6    .0    .0   .0   -.05
-.02  Haslem,Udonis  Mia   15  .000     .0   5.0   3.1    .0   2.3   .0   -.57

-.02  Bass,Brandon   Bos   34  .333    6.5   2.3   1.0    .0    .0   .0   -.26
-.02 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   17  .167    1.0    .0    .0   2.0    .0   .0   -.67

Shooting: Mia .557 - .432 Bos
Rebounds: Mia 48 - 33 Bos
Turnovers: Bos 7 - 12 Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 2, Celtics 0
Avg score: 104-95
Pyth wins: 1.54 - .46; eWins 1.27 - .73

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eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.44   James,Lebron   Mia   46   .564   28.6  10.1   4.6   .8   1.6  1.6   2.28
.35   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   49   .600   24.3   7.1   6.0  1.5   2.6   .0   1.73
.30   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   41   .616   23.9   4.5   5.7   .9   2.7  1.8   1.74
.17   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   38   .513   18.3   9.7    .9   .5   1.0   .5   1.08
.16   Chalmers,Mario Mia   43   .508   13.2   4.3   5.2   .9   1.7   .4    .89

.10   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    9   1.00   26.9  15.6   1.9   .0    .0   .0   2.92
.10   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   23   .419    8.4  11.2   3.8  1.5    .8   .8   1.08
.08   Battier,Shane  Mia   41   .475    7.5   6.5   1.6   .9    .4   .9    .49
.07   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia   12   .750   13.4  12.8    .0   .0   1.6  3.3   1.44
.06   Bass,Brandon   Bos   32   .444    7.5   7.8   1.1   .0    .0   .6    .44

eWins   per36 rates   tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.06   Miller,Mike    Mia   13   .625   23.4   7.4   1.6   .0   2.6   .0   1.05
.04   Allen,Ray      Bos   41   .432    6.6   5.0    .9  1.8    .4   .0    .26
.04   Anthony,Joel   Mia   20   .417    3.6   8.9   1.1   .0    .9  1.8    .51
.04   Pierce,Paul    Bos   42   .413   11.1   3.9   2.7   .4   1.7   .4    .24
.00   Jones,James    Mia   12   .600    9.8   3.3    .0   .0    .0   .0    .10

-.01  Dooling,Keyon  Bos   14   .625    6.8    .0   2.5   .0    .0   .0   -.15
-.05 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   23   .333    1.9   1.7    .0   .8    .0   .0   -.56

Shooting: Mia .547 - .508 Bos
Rebounds: Mia 42.8 - 35.6 Bos
Turnovers: Bos 7.5 - 10.0 Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 2, Celtics 1
Avg score: Mia 99.7 - 99.0 Bos
Pyth wins: 1.77 - 1.23; eWins 1.63 - 1.37

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.61   James,Lebron   Mia   45  .575   31.6   9.4   3.8   1.1   1.9  1.6   2.15
.51   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   47  .591   25.1   6.7   6.3   1.3   2.3   .0   1.76
.32   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   37  .551   23.9  11.0    .6    .3   2.0   .7   1.38
.32   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   41  .558   21.0   4.3   4.2    .9   2.6  1.8   1.22
.19   Chalmers,Mario Mia   43  .506   12.6   3.2   4.3    .8   1.4   .3    .69

.14   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    7  .900   30.7  12.9   1.5    .0    .0   .0   3.15
.13   Miller,Mike    Mia   16  .634   25.1   9.1    .7    .0   1.5   .0   1.35
.12   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia   11  .750   18.6  14.0    .0    .0   2.5  2.5   1.86
.12   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   20  .432    7.3  12.2   2.1   1.1    .6  1.1    .96
.10   Pierce,Paul    Bos   41  .434   13.2   4.0   2.7    .6   2.1   .9    .40

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.09  Daniels,Marquis Bos    7  .688   27.6   9.7   1.6   1.7    .0   .0   2.10
.09   Bass,Brandon   Bos   27  .455    8.0   8.5   1.3    .0    .5   .5    .52
.08   Allen,Ray      Bos   40  .483    7.9   5.2    .6   1.2    .3   .0    .33
.07   Anthony,Joel   Mia   17  .563    6.9   6.9    .6    .0    .7  1.3    .62
.06   Dooling,Keyon  Bos   16  .750   14.3   3.3   1.3    .0   1.5   .7    .64

.03   Jones,James    Mia   11  .625   13.4   3.5    .0   1.0   1.0   .0    .48
.02   Battier,Shane  Mia   40  .365    3.7   5.5   2.0    .6    .6   .6    .09
-.03 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   22  .333    1.8   3.6    .0   1.1    .0   .0   -.22

shooting: Mia .540 - .527 Bos
Rebounds: Mia 39.3 - 38.3 Bos
Turnovers: Bos 9.3 - 10.0 Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 2, Celtics 2
Avg score: Mia 97.5 - 96.0 Bos
Pyth wins: 2.21 - 1.79; eWins 2.10 - 1.90

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.78   James,Lebron   Mia   46  .556   30.0   8.6   3.5  1.0   2.8  1.4   2.06
.73   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   47  .575   22.6   6.3   7.8  1.0   2.4   .0   1.88
.45   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   38  .516   20.5  11.9   1.1   .7   2.6  1.7   1.42
.43   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   44  .512   18.0   4.9   4.3  1.3   2.7  1.9   1.17
.29   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   24  .528   10.4  14.4   2.0  1.0   1.0   .7   1.45

.24   Chalmers,Mario Mia   41  .487   12.3   3.4   4.4   .9   1.6   .2    .69
.21   Pierce,Paul    Bos   41  .462   15.8   4.7   2.1   .9   2.2   .7    .61
.17   Bass,Brandon   Bos   28  .477    9.3   8.6   1.8   .6   1.0   .3    .73
.13   Dooling,Keyon  Bos   16  .786   20.1   2.3   1.0   .0   1.0   .5    .98
.12   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    6  .900   25.9  10.7   1.2   .0    .0   .0   2.70

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.11   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia    8  .750   17.0  12.8    .0   .0   2.2  2.2   1.68
.11   Miller,Mike    Mia   15  .571   18.0   7.6   1.1   .0   1.1   .0    .89
.09   Anthony,Joel   Mia   17  .611    7.2   7.0    .5   .0    .5  1.5    .66
.09   Allen,Ray      Bos   42  .489    9.4   4.3    .6   .9    .7   .0    .25
.05  Daniels,Marquis Bos    9  .600   13.0   5.0    .8   .9    .0   .0    .74

.04   Jones,James    Mia   11  .591   11.1   4.1    .7   .7    .7   .0    .38
.02   Cole,Norris    Mia    7  .455    5.0   1.3   4.4  1.1    .0   .0    .39
-.01  Battier,Shane  Mia   41  .417    4.3   4.2   1.8   .5    .9   .7   -.04
-.05 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   22  .231     .8   4.7    .0   .7    .0   .7   -.29

shooting: Mia .528 - .518 Bos
rebounding: Mia 38.5 - 37.5 Bos
turnovers: Bos 10.8 - 11.8 Mia

[browning]

Looks like Lebron has been #1 in eWins in every playoff game he has been in so far. He is good.

Can you share the current ewins formula? I googled but couldnt find anything definitive.
Maybe it kind of undervalued Paul Pierce in game 4? He had a decent game

[Mike G]

There are 1.00 eWins per game, divided among players for both teams.
These tables show cumulative eWins (equivalent wins) after one game, after 2, etc.

Here I've just copied them from the previous 4 posts; then subtracted from the previous cumulative total to get each game's eW (2nd set of columns), for the top 4 players with each team.

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Team        Cumulative eWins           Single Game eWins
_Miami     G1    G2    G3    G4       G1    G2    G3    G4
LeBron    .25   .44   .61   .78      .25   .19   .17   .17
Wade      .19   .30   .32   .43      .19   .11   .02   .11
Haslem   -.02   .10   .12   .29     -.02   .12   .02   .17
Chalmers  .06   .16   .19   .24      .06   .10   .03   .05
                           
_Boston    G1    G2    G3    G4       G1    G2    G3    G4
Rondo     .07   .35   .51   .73      .07   .28   .16   .22
Garnett   .16   .17   .32   .45      .16   .01   .15   .13
Pierce    .00   .04   .10   .21      .00   .04   .06   .11
Bass     -.02   .06   .09   .17     -.02   .08   .03   .08

LeBron led all players in eWins for games 1 and 3; Rondo in G2 and 4.
This method of "reconstituting" single game eWins does not give exactly the same results that you'd get by doing each game separately. See the thread "General Playoff Thoughts", for team results on that subject.
http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7946

[Mike G]

Celtics 3, Heat 2
Avg score: Mia 96.0 - 95.6 Bos
Pyth wins: 2.57 - 2.43; eWins 2.53 - 2.47

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eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.95   James,Lebron   Mia   46  .548   28.9   8.9   3.1   1.1   2.7  1.3   2.00
.74   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   46  .518   17.1   6.0   8.3   1.4   2.7   .0   1.55
.65   Garnett,Kevin  Bos   38  .527   22.8  11.8   1.3    .8   2.3  1.8   1.64
.54   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   43  .514   19.8   5.0   4.0   1.0   2.7  1.7   1.21
.35   Haslem,Udonis  Mia   26  .477    8.1  15.2   1.8    .8   1.3   .5   1.28

.27   Pierce,Paul    Bos   41  .458   15.9   4.4   2.4   1.1   2.1   .5    .63
.27   Chalmers,Mario Mia   40  .493   12.1   3.5   4.1    .9   1.8   .2    .65
.24   Bass,Brandon   Bos   29  .494   10.7   7.9   1.5   1.0   1.0   .5    .81
.20   Stiemsma,Greg  Bos    6  .857   24.9  13.4   1.0   1.1    .0   .0   3.22
.16   Dooling,Keyon  Bos   14  .833   21.0   2.1    .9    .0    .9   .5   1.09

eWins   per36 rates   tm  mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.14   Allen,Ray      Bos   41  .492   10.0   4.8    .5    .9    .7   .2    .34
.12   Miller,Mike    Mia   14  .564   17.2   7.6    .9    .0   1.0   .0    .85
.12   Turiaf,Ronny   Mia    6  .750   17.5  13.4    .0    .0   2.4  2.4   1.82
.10   Anthony,Joel   Mia   13  .611    7.4   7.1    .5    .0    .5  1.6    .71
.06  Daniels,Marquis Bos    8  .600   12.8   4.8    .8    .9    .0   .0    .77

.04   Bosh,Chris     Mia    3  .474   20.6  18.8    .0    .0   2.4   .0   1.53
.03   Jones,James    Mia   12  .548   10.3   3.7    .5   1.1   1.1   .0    .26
.01   Cole,Norris    Mia    8  .263    2.1   1.0   5.0   2.6    .9   .0    .13
-.01 Pietrus,Mickael Bos   23  .432    4.7   4.6    .0   1.2    .6   .6   -.03
-.02  Battier,Shane  Mia   39  .441    4.9   3.8   1.8    .4    .9   .8   -.04

shooting: Mia .518 - .513 Bos
rebounds: Mia 40.5 - 37.8 Bos
turnovers: Bos 11.0 - 12.4 Mia

[schtevie]

I don't know why I am surprised, but I really would have thought that the post-game coverage of Game 5 would have had a slightly different aspect, given that the pre-game coverage (correctly) emphasized the potential impact of Chris Bosh's return.

For context, in the three games he played against the Celtics in the regular season (Miami being the home team in two) his +/- per minute was 0.151. By contrast, the Heat as a whole were -0.132, implying that the "not Chris Bosh" +/- per minute in those three games was -0.921. So, it could be inferred, and was, that a healthy Chris Bosh could be instrumental in securing a playoff victory. The question mark surrounded his health in returning from the abdominal strain.

Read this, http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/miamih ... -maelstrom, however, and you get no clue that Bosh's 14 minutes at -12 in total (a per minute -0.857) were a +/- disaster. Miami won the non-Bosh game! Quotations are offered from Wade and Spoelstra. It is obvious from the quoted remarks why the coach didn't choose to highlight the fact that his rather big gamble didn't pay off. And you can understand that Dwayne Wade might not have a clue. But the writer has no such excuse.

I am curious if anyone has a citation for a piece of journalism that actually follows up critically on what was the only new, relevant, and main storyline going into the game? Good journalism deserves to be praised.

[browning]

I don't think you should look at +/- for 1 game to rate Bosh.
plus minus doesn't mean a whole lot over 1 game.

If you look at Bosh's game in detail, he basically played 3 seperate short stints.

1st quarter he came in the game up 4 and left up 8. So that was good.
2nd quarter he came in up 8 and left up 2. Not as good.. but Wade was out for most of this time, also if Mike Miller or Battier connect on 1 of their 3s its a different story.
3rd quarter is where most of his negative plus minus comes from, they were -10 during this stretch, but Wade and Chalmers were out during most of the time he was in. It was a disaster of a rotation for Miami , but I don't think you can put this all on Bosh.

When he was on the court with Wade and Lebron they played quite well together.

[schtevie]

If all you've got is a game (and it is the responsibility of journalists to cover that game) you should look at everything you have to rate Bosh - especially given the fact that his prospective participation was really the story going in. And if you think you shouldn't look at +/1 for 1 game then you surely shouldn't look at 1 game rotations in +/- terms either.

Look, the fact of the matter is that his was the worst +/- of the team and that the big question, ex ante, was whether coming back early off an abdominal strain (which is a subtly nasty injury) would compromise his effectiveness. So, we are looking at a reasonable prior that his effectiveness would be compromised to some degree, combined with the most robust ex post single metric (+/-) suggesting that his play was indeed compromised. Given the before game commentary, this basic argument/analysis should have found its way into every summary article.

As for the rotation argument itself, the regular season "Bosh less Wade" evidence doesn't support this as an explanation. There is a suggestion in this post-season that this matters, but that too is small sample size theater.

And, by the way, I am not putting this on Bosh. I trust he played as well as he was able. This is clearly on the coaching staff, whose decision it was. Whether it was rational or irrational is a longer discussion. That it wasn't front and center in today's commentary, not so much.

[xkonk]

Maybe I'm giving the author too much credit, but that article schtevie linked to seemed to be more about Bosh's up-and-down season than about why the Heat won or lost game 5. The three paragraphs about his play in the game, starting at "Bosh's play in the first half..." follow that theme - Bosh was good (or at least things went well), then he was bad. As was mentioned, you can't expect Spoelstra or Wade to say anything bad, although I'd add in the fact that a player would have to be both atrocious and disliked to get bad-mouthed about a game where he returned from injury. Most of the other coverage I've seen on ESPN has been too busy talking about LeBron's lack of 4th quarter fortitude to talk much about Bosh.

[schtevie]

xkonk, I think you might be giving the author a bit too much credit, but it wasn't really my attention to single him out, just to provide an illustration of the general failure.

Regarding what I might expect Spoelstra or Wade to say, I'm not sure. Does anyone know if they were asked point blank questions on the specific issue of whether Bosh came back too soon?

In this (nice) article on the general subject written prior to the game - http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2012/st ... on-celtics - Brian Windhorst offers this quote from Wade:

"We have other guys that he (Kevin Garnett) doesn't feel are much of an offensive threat," Wade said. "That's been the biggest difference in this whole series. I've played against Boston a lot of times and they haven't been able to play the way they're playing me now."

So, he's perfectly happy to throw teammates under the bus in this context.

But of more general interest, there are these last three paragraphs in the article:

"Garnett knows a little something about what Bosh is going through. During Boston's championship season in 2008, Garnett missed slightly over three weeks with an abdominal strain and returned in a February game to tally four points, four turnovers and eight rebounds in just 20 minutes. The Celtics lost that February game to Denver.

Garnett remembers what it felt like to test his core muscles in a actual game setting, but Garnett is keeping his secrets close to the vest, in case Bosh might be looking for tips. When asked whether he had any specific memories from that game, Garnett made a simple reply.

"I don't. No memories that I'd like to share."

Let me try to imagine KG's memories in +/- form from that game and the ones that followed and share them here. The Denver game was his first game back, in +/- he was -12. The next game was against Golden State (also an above average team at that point in that season) and KG's +/- was -1. Then the game after that Boston faced a then highly-above average Phoenix team and KG's +/- was -14. It is only in the 4th game after coming back that KG's +/- got into positive territory, though not playing against elite competition.

So, perhaps we might then infer that in Bosh's 4th game back his time on the court will see a net positive contribution on the scoreboard.

[browning]

You really need to rewatch the last 3 minutes of the 3rd quarter.
That is where Bosh's negative plus minus comes from.
Look at each play. The breakdown is not Bosh's fault.

Sure you can look at all of the data , but in this case the plus minus for Bosh doesn't mean much of anything.
9 points 7 rebounds in 14 minutes is a really good outing. You shouldn't let the plus minus number tarnish that.

[schtevie]

Technically, I cannot rewatch the third quarter as I have not yet watched it. And your point (that I might be embellishing) could well be absolutely correct: that Bosh was absolutely fit and ready to go, in fact, had a great game, the +/- result was spurious, and his lack of fourth quarter playing time was a plain mistake. In which case, this would be extraordinarily damning of Erik Spoelstra.

But here's my wild guess as to what was going on on the sidelines. Before the game there was some target minutes they wanted CB to play, reflecting the nature of and time since the injury. Quarter one happens. By your record, his was a +4, a fact surely noted on the bench. Quarter two, -6. Not a good sign. Then quarter three, -10. At that point, the decision was made - surely (?) also based upon the actual game observations and not just the quarterly stat sheets - that it wouldn't be "fair" to put CB in for the fourth.

But now we hear that Bosh is slated for a more significant role in game six. Perhaps that reflects political weakness on the part of Spoelstra. Perhaps it reflects new medical information. Who knows?

The initial point I was trying to make however regarded the (lack of) follow-up reporting on fundamentals. An injury to a key player is a basic determinant of changes in the expected range of game outcomes. After taking into account such factors, the ball then bounces. I suppose talk of Paul Pierce's random reptilian transformation on the last shot is considered sexier by most journalists and the reading audience, hence that is what we tend to get, but the conspicuous dropping of the most interesting pre-game story line is what bugged me.

It may well be - despite the similar recuperation intervals - that Bosh's abdominal strain was much milder than one that adversely affected KG's play in 2008, but that one was very real, and it mattered competitively.

Here's a conditional prediction that's way, way out there. Should Boston clinch in game six in a competitive game, with Bosh having a non-factor, tepid kind of performance (reflecting "core" weakness) and LBJ not having absolutely the best individual performance of his career, there will be hardly a mention in the post-game reporting of the influence and relevance of Bosh's diminished capacity. All we will hear about is psychodrama, how the outcome proves James' ultimate lack of greatness, blah, blah, blah...

Blech.

[kjb]

schtevie: I share your "blech" on the state of basketball punditry, especially as it focuses on Lebron and the Heat. This morning I listened to Tim Legler speaking as someone who "knows what he's talking about" (a phrase he used to refer to himself -- after talking about Jeff Van Gundy's critique of people who were knocking Spoelstra) and knocking Spoelstra for not helping the Heat against Boston. Then, with no trace of irony (or even apparent knowledge of the contradictory nature of his consecutive statements), he talked about how the absence of Bosh made Boston's defensive task easier.

Gee, Legs -- maybe Spoelstra hasn't been able to help his team against the Celtics very much because he's missing a key part of that team. A particularly damaging loss considering that the Heat's roster is constructed to be Lebron, Wade, Bosh and not much else.