Best / worst free agent contract signings?

[Crow]

Which do you consider the worst contract signing?

Batum, Lopez, Gordon, Dragic, Wallace, Williams or Lin?

I think it might be Batum's expected contract. I think he has the worst prior-informed RAPM estimate in this group at -1.9. It is between him and Lopez at -0.9 for worst contract but I consider all or almost poor value signings.


Which do you consider the best?

[J.E.]

Landry Fields is among the best, I think.
The Heat did very well with Allen+Lewis
Spurs did well with Diaw etc.

I would agree that Batum might be the worst, but there are rumors of Denver offering McGee 50m/5y

I wanted to write a big post about free agency but a lot of trades and signings don't seem official yet, and thus aren't listed on prosportstransactions or similar

[dtjmcauliffe]

Scrolling through by RAPM for 2012, and from memory of contracts signed and traded.

Good: Dallas signing Brand in Amnesty process(Just over 2 million for a 2.6 RAPM guy), Ryan Anderson(3.7 RAPM) for 4 years, 36 million is a good deal for New Orleans. Personally, I'm not sure how much of his value is from the interaction with Dwight, but he'll be playing with an awesome big so I don't think that matters too much. Toronto trading for Lowry, and signing Fields are good moves, as is Lakers getting Nash. Hawks get credit for Clearing long term commitment to Joe Johnson, and getting Korver and Lou Williams for not too much.

Bad: Philly letting Brand go. They didn't generate a ton of cap space, then signed Nick Young for 2 years, 6 million.(-2 RAPM). Jeff Green seems like a bad deal at 4 years, 36 million.(-3.0 in 2010/2011). Minnesota with Batum is also questionable.

[Crow]

I forgot about Green and he probably is the worst contract. -3.1 on RAPM in 2011 (and on a downward trend) and a heart condition.

McGee would be on the list as well.

[wilq]

I forgot about Green and he probably is the worst contract. -3.1 on RAPM in 2011 (and on a downward trend) and a heart condition.

Speaking of which... does anyone can find their motivation behind this decision? He will be basically a backup SF, right?
They couldn't sign someone for 10 times less money to play exactly the same role?
And it's not like Green has a good track record...

Or maybe it was a classic "we traded pieces for him so we have to keep him" move?
Even in that case, were there any other offers over let's say 20M$?
I'm so puzzled by this move on so many levels... please help

[kjb]

Jeff Green is easily the worst. I'd thought of him as a 1-year, league minimum guy -- Boston gave him $36 million over 4 years. Even if he returns to form I still don't see a way for him to be anything but colossally overpaid.

Deals I liked:

- Dallas getting Brand
- New Orleans acquiring Ryan Anderson on a Jeff Green-sized contract.
- Milwaukee re-upping Ilyasova.
- Atlanta getting Lou Williams on the MLE. Modest deal for an efficient volume scorer off the bench.
- I think San Antonio got a bargain in Danny Green

Bad deals:

- Philly signing Nick Young
- Philly signing Kwame Brown
- max contract for Lopez -- not a bad player, but not worth that deal

One other move I potentially like is Phoenix signing Michael Beasley. I think they gave him too much money and that they should have made the third year a team option. And...they need to move him to PF. I think there's potential in Beasley to be a good PF. If the Suns do what everyone else has done -- play him at SF -- I think they'll regret the contract they gave him. If they make him a PF full-time, I think there's a chance he could end up a bargain.

I will say that the events of the offseason have solidified my initial dislike of Washington's trade for Okafor and Ariza. I wrote at the time (over on a Wizards message board) that Washington was making a mistake spending all their cap room on those two, and that they were preventing themselves from making moves that would become possible if they were patient.

Had the Wizards done what I would have preferred -- buyout Lewis and amnesty Blatche -- they'd have had cap room sufficient to outbid Dallas for Brand, outbid the Spurs for Danny Green, and outbid Atlanta for Lou Williams. I think that would have been a preferable offseason to the one they've had because they would have been able to use Brand as a one-year frontcourt bridge to their youngsters, and they would have had a couple solid young players in Williams and Green. Plus, they'd have had Wall and Beal, and $8-9 million in cap room next offseason. Oh well...

[Bobbofitos]

Which do you consider the worst contract signing?

Batum, Lopez, Gordon, Dragic, Wallace, Williams or Lin?

I think it might be Batum's expected contract. I think he has the worst prior-informed RAPM estimate in this group at -1.9. It is between him and Lopez at -0.9 for worst contract but I consider all or almost poor value signings.


Which do you consider the best?

Jeff Green, not close. How or why he fetched the money he did, and for the number of years, is totally beyond me.

That said, the BLopez max is fairly atrocious as well.

[Bobbofitos]

I forgot about Green and he probably is the worst contract. -3.1 on RAPM in 2011 (and on a downward trend) and a heart condition.

McGee would be on the list as well.

It's so bad I need to requote this. "What the hell were they thinking". I'd like to know.

Nothing is official with McGee so I'd hold off on that.

I think Toronto has done very well for themselves this offseason.

[Bobbofitos]

I like what Dallas has done. I wouldn't say they've made themselves THAT much better - OJ Mayo is fairly overrated, Chris Kaman is fairly terrible, etc. - but picking up Brand, Collison, their draft, all while retaining loads of flexibility for next year+lowering their cap figure, is a good win.

Philly on the other hand has no idea what they're doing. Their (in?)ability to recognize who drove their team success is perplexing. Losing Brand (2nd best player) and Lou Williams (3rd best) for essentially Kwame (fringe rotation player) and Nick Young (horrible) is enough to move them out of the playoffs. Not to mention all the reports that they're shopping Iggy in order to "free" up Turner, again, is a head scratcher. Hawes isn't that bad of a player, but it didn't really appear there was a market for him, so that confused me (12m for 2 years I believe)

[wilq]

Deals I liked:
- Dallas getting Brand[...]
- Atlanta getting Lou Williams on the MLE.[...]
Bad deals:
- Philly signing Nick Young
- Philly signing Kwame Brown

Yikes for the Sixers' decision-making...
BTW, Young for Lou swap seems unique to me - the same position, the same role, yet Sixers preferred worse option in basically every way... which turned out to be more expensive. What??

[J.E.]

Portland matched Minnesota's offer for Batum

So far I like Dallas, Toronto and San Antonio. Ryan Anderson to NO is great, especially for that price. Same-four-plus-minus seems to suggest only little of his value comes from playing with Dwight, but I suppose some of it was SVG and his system. What's weird in NO is that they already seem in win-now mode; given how strong the West has been I'm not sure if they even make the playoffs, and thus matching Eric Gordon's max offer might turn out to be a questionable decision

The Nets make it seem like Isiah Thomas is their manager. Max contract for Lopez? really?

[Crow]

I should have put Asik on the candidate list for worst contract signing too.

Decent 15 minute per game regular season player who greatly underperformed in two straight playoffs.

Paying Lin / Asik $30 million in the 3rd season? That will be an interesting challenge to build around and maintain progress, if there is progress. Progress back to .500?

Noticed that Lin had the highest turnover rate of any player in the league (who played more than 30 minutes for the season). Shouldn't the game plan on him be just don't foul him? He was below average on inside FG%. Getting and making free throws are his main strengths.

At least the owner is excited. Good luck with all that.

He was excited in 2006 and probably still in 2010 too. I stumbled upon an article from 2010 lauding Morey for getting Aaron Brooks, Lowry, Martin and Scola. Not looking so hot with all that now.

There was also this quote:
“We haven’t won anything yet,” Morey says. “We always beat what the expectations are – whatever Vegas thinks we’ll do, we’ve beaten expectations consistently. We won a playoff series last season as the road team. But in my own goals, until we break through we really haven’t accomplished that much.”

Houston Rockets... conference finals or NBA finals...when will those phrases be linked again? Right now I don't see a glimmer of a chance in the next few years and no reason yet to give them a better than average shot at it within 5 years.

[Bobbofitos]

I should have put Asik on the candidate list for worst contract signing too.

Decent 15 minute per game regular season player who greatly underperformed in two straight playoffs.

Paying Lin / Asik $30 million in the 3rd season? That will be an interesting challenge to build around and maintain progress, if there is progress. Progress back to .500?

Noticed that Lin had the highest turnover rate of any player in the league (who played more than 30 minutes for the season). Shouldn't the game plan on him be just don't foul him? He was below average on inside FG%. Getting and making free throws are his main strengths.

At least the owner is excited. Good luck with all that.

He was excited in 2006 and probably still in 2010 too. I stumbled upon an article from 2010 lauding Morey for getting Aaron Brooks, Lowry, Martin and Scola. Not looking so hot with all that now.

There was also this quote:
“We haven’t won anything yet,” Morey says. “We always beat what the expectations are – whatever Vegas thinks we’ll do, we’ve beaten expectations consistently. We won a playoff series last season as the road team. But in my own goals, until we break through we really haven’t accomplished that much.”

Houston Rockets... conference finals or NBA finals...when will those phrases be linked again? Right now I don't see a glimmer of a chance in the next few years and no reason yet to give them a better than average shot at it within 5 years.

Not so sure Asik was a bad signing at all. I'm cautiously optimistic, it all hinges on how much playing time he's able to handle. Having said all that, I don't really get why Morey gets the bus thrown at him when it comes to praise. What, exactly, has he done that's been above average?

[Crow]

In an interview with Morey on ESPN he said suggested that winning 40-45 games is not being "on the treadmill of mediocrity" if you do it with a lot of young players and he said they did it that way. It is true that only about 33% of their minutes went to guys 28 years old and over last season . But his top 2 scorers and top three rebounders were all 28 and over. And he is returning with none of top 6 scorers from last season, only two of the top 8 rebounders and only one of top 5 assist guys per game. Maybe he isn't on a treadmill- anymore (but he was). Maybe going forward he is doing what is more fairly called a cliff dive.

Over / under - Rockets win 30 games next season?

And is it better from to win 30 or 15-20 next season from the long-term perspective? How low is the owner willing to go for "exciting", young guy dominated basketball and for how long? What target year is realistic for being a contender? 2016-17 or more like 2018-19? Will Lin and Asik be around for either time period? At what price and for what sized role? Are they getting on the treadmill of $8 million per year RFAs who teams aren't willing to match on? Two of them now. Do they outperform and out-lead the big contract guys they previously built around (Martin and Scola)?

Is Lin / Martin / Parsons / White / Asik or whatever they go with going to be a bottom 5-10 starting lineup and how much chance does that have to be top 5-10 in 3-5 years?

[Bobbofitos]

In an interview with Morey on ESPN he said suggested that winning 40-45 games is not being "on the treadmill of mediocrity" if you do it with a lot of young players and he said they did it that way. It is true that only about 33% of their minutes went to guys 28 years old and over last season . But his top 2 scorers and top three rebounders were all 28 and over.

Right... Who cares about %of minutes <age28, if the bulk of production/results stemmed from those >age28? And of their young guys, Dragic, Lowry (both 25 last season) are not with the team. Same with Lee, Budinger, and Hill (who was traded midseason) Which leaves... Chandler Parsons? So he's their primary building block going forward? He's right that's not the treadmill of mediocrity. That's the treadmill of suck.

And he is returning with none of top 6 scorers from last season, only two of the top 8 rebounders and only one of top 5 assist guys per game. Maybe he isn't on a treadmill- anymore (but he was). Maybe going forward he is doing what is more fairly called a cliff dive.

Over / under - Rockets win 30 games next season?

Some things can change from now till opening tip, but with the way they look currently, how can we say anything but under?

And is it better from to win 30 or 15-20 next season from the long-term perspective?

Technically 15-20, right? I don't actually know - there's conflicting evidence as well as anecdotal evidence that supports both sides.

How low is the owner willing to go for "exciting", young guy dominated basketball and for how long?

We don't know what Morey's mandate is. And with Lin on the team, you have to figure they'll be super profitable, no matter how bad the actual product is.

What target year is realistic for being a contender? 2016-17 or more like 2018-19? Will Lin and Asik be around for either time period? At what price and for what sized role? Are they getting on the treadmill of $8 million per year RFAs who teams aren't willing to match on? Two of them now. Do they outperform and out-lead the big contract guys they previously built around (Martin and Scola)?

They are far far far from contender status, so it's pretty difficult to assign a target date. A team with actual young players who can develop into the league's elite (Cleveland, New Orleans) can actually project that far in the distance. Not so with Houston.

I can't imagine Lin not being on the team for the life of his contract. He's going to bring in so much more money than what he's paid that this is a no brainer. Asik... Who knows.

Is Lin / Martin / Parsons / White / Asik or whatever they go with going to be a bottom 5-10 starting lineup and how much chance does that have to be top 5-10 in 3-5 years?

[/quote][/quote]
0% chance to be a top 5 or 10 lineup ever. Is Royce White really pegged to be the starter? Eesh.