Dream Team ASPM, response to recent article.

[huevonkiller]

I was reading an article on Dream Team ASPM. It is an "insider" article so I will not re-post it here (not that I believe in that stuff, but just out of respect to the author I'll keep quiet).

It is called "Settling the Dream Team debate" By Neil Paine from ESPN.com.

My overall conclusions:

1. If you use ASPM to calculate the talent level of the Dream Team, is it really fair to use David Robinson's metrics from the regular-season? He's clearly not the same player in his prime during the post-season. I know he's amazing in the regular season but I think Shaq has a better career statistically. Also I don't think one should use ASPM as an end-all.

2. Is it appropriate that after coming off his absolute weakest post-season title run ever, that MJ should be declared the best player by far in the 2012 vs 1992 debate? Nah I don't think so either. But indeed this is what Mr. Neil Paine has said in his series of (very well written otherwise) analyses. Sketchy boast, since 2012 LeBron crushes 92 Jordan. Also average player talent isn't the end-all since the league is 10+% larger than in 1992. In economics there's also a "catch-up effect" which helps inferior countries catch up to more capitalist countries. That's one of the reasons why point differential is lower now, in addition to Spain being a premium opponent.

3.I think the 2012 team is flawed because of their lack of size, but no need to aggrandize the Dream Team. They're within reach had Dwight, Bosh, or possibly Dwyane Wade played.


I enjoyed reading this piece though. The 95, 96, 97, and 98 Bulls played in a weak era and pumped up their wins so to speak, according to Neil Paine's calculations, so that was a fun non-revelation for me. I love reading APBRmetricians from ESPN, hopefully they pump out more stuff in the future.

Edit: His analysis of different eras is somewhat amorphous and might be incorrect, just wanted to correct that for the record.

[DSMok1]

I think you are strongly over-weighting post season in your comments here. The sample size in post season is considerably smaller than the regular season.

Jordan was dominant in the post-season in 90, 91, and 93...just because he had a relatively down post-season in 92 doesn't mean he wasn't dominant. Just that he had a relatively poor post season, with a small sample size. Any number of reasons possible, including just "luck". His regular season was still dominant.

2012 Lebron crushes 92 Jordan? I find that quite a strong statement.

I don't know about your David Robinson CLEARLY not the same player in post season. I believe I saw a study on playoffs vs. regular season, and the reduction he saw wasn't unusual. He was plenty good in the '91 playoffs!

[Mike G]

The 95, 96, 97, and 98 Bulls played in a weak era and pumped up their wins so to speak...

What is the argument that it was a weak era? Relative to what era?

My own analysis concludes that 1993 was the low point of competitiveness in the Bulls era, and the weakest year since '83; but stronger than any year before 1983.

Meanwhile, 1997-98 looks like as strong a year as any; based on minutes and rebound rates by players who also played in prior seasons.

Jordan was dominant in the post-season in 90, 91, and 93...just because he had a relatively down post-season in 92 doesn't mean he wasn't dominant. Just that he had a relatively poor post season...

He was dominant; was he "relatively down"?
His scoring relative to opponent scoring was higher than for any other season or postseason in the Bulls' title years.
His playoff rebound and assist rates were essentially the same as his season's. Same TS%. For most players, these rates fall off in the playoffs.

The '92 Bulls were opposed by 2 of the 3 best defenses in the league (NY and Por) for 13 of their 22 playoff games. This may have something to do with depressed stats.

[Mike G]

I don't know about your David Robinson CLEARLY not the same player in post season. I believe I saw a study on playoffs vs. regular season, and the reduction he saw wasn't unusual. He was plenty good in the '91 playoffs!

That postseason, all of 4 games, was the only one in his prime that matched his regular season. All others before Duncan arrived were sub-par, even relative to normal postseason dropoff.

Perhaps unrelated, for his whole regular season career, he was credited with 30% more blocks at home than on the road.

Anyway, performance in the Olympics is a drastically different animal than either playoffs or regular seasons. Jordan was about the worst Dream Teamer in those non-competitive games.

[Mike G]

Is it appropriate that after coming off his absolute weakest post-season title run ever, that MJ should be declared the best player by far in the 2012 vs 1992 debate? Nah I don't think so either. But indeed this is what Mr. Neil Paine has said in his series of (very well written otherwise) analyses. Sketchy boast, since 2012 LeBron crushes 92 Jordan...

I don't see how either player is either far better or crushes the other.
In 22 playoff games in 1992, Jordan outshot his opponents (TS%) 16 times. He also had a higher TS% than his own team in 14 of 22 games.
He had a higher ORtg than his team in 14 of 22, and higher than the opponent in 15.

His TS% was better than the opponent in 3 of 4 series-closing games.
His ORtg was better in all 4 series closers.

In 3 of 4 series, his TS% was better than the opposing team's (exception: Cle)
In all 4 series, his ORtg was better than opponents'.

In 20 of 22 games, Jordan scored at least 30% of what the opposing team scored for the game.
In 7 games, he scored at least 40% of what opponents scored.
In Game 7 vs the Knicks, he had 42, vs 81 for NY. That's 52% of what the whole other team scored.

In the Finals, his TS% was better than the Bulls' TS% in all 6 games; better than the Blazers' in 5 of 6. At least 18% higher in 4 of 6.

His ORtg/Opp.ORtg by series: 1.27 vs Mia, 1.01 vs NY, 1.05 vs Cle, 1.16 vs Por

[Mike G]

From the free intro to the pay-per-view article:

... Kobe Bryant's best squad, 2008's Redeem Team, would have about a 44 percent chance of toppling Michael Jordan and the legends of 1992 in a best-of-seven series on a neutral court. And, as I wrote last week, that number could actually be given a boost by the supposition that the average player in 2012 is better than his 1992-93 counterpart. After all, today's players are certainly stronger, faster and more athletic than players were 20 years ago.

But as it turns out, that assumption is faulty. From a pure basketball production standpoint, it appears the typical NBA player is actually no better in 2012, in an absolute sense, than he was in 1992.

Is Neil slipping? Of course from a pure basketball production standpoint, the typical NBA player is going to be equal in any era. The average player is average, in other words. Average stats, average ASPM, whatever.

Is average player production absolute, or is it relative? Aren't we pretty sure that we do not know?
It's like asking, "Would da Bears beat da Bulls?"

[xkonk]

It's been my experience that the articles on ESPN Insider are rarely the best work of any given author.

[Mike G]

Now that I have actually looked at the 2012 USA Olympic basketball lineup -- and recalling that every member of the 1992 Dream Team is in the Hall of Fame (other than the collegian, Laettner) -- the contrast is striking.

Tyson Chandler is not going to the HOF. Some are long shots. Others are possible/likely. Kobe, LeBron, Durant, Paul are certain.

[DSMok1]

Now that I have actually looked at the 2012 USA Olympic basketball lineup -- and recalling that every member of the 1992 Dream Team is in the Hall of Fame (other than the collegian, Laettner) -- the contrast is striking.

Tyson Chandler is not going to the HOF. Some are long shots. Others are possible/likely. Kobe, LeBron, Durant, Paul are certain.

Some of the 2012 Olympians were well past their prime, for what it's worth.

[kjb]

Here's a way to look at relative team strength. Who would you replace on the 1992 team with players from the 2012 team?

The only "must haves" from the 2012 team are Lebron, Durant, and Chris Paul. I'd replace Laettner, Bird (age/back), and then either Mullin or Drexler. Who else? Maybe Kobe over Mullin or Drexler. Maybe.

I wouldn't take Westbrook or Williams over Magic or Stockton.

[Mike G]

Some of the 2012 Olympians were well past their prime, for what it's worth.

Really? The only players beyond 30 were Bird and Magic. Magic was still in his prime at 31, but then suspended by HIV.

Bird was the old man at 35, on his last legs (though no one knew it). And in his last year he had Usg% > 24, TReb% > 14, and Ast% > 16. These 3 rates have only been matched by Garnett (2005), Grant Hill ('97 and '98), and Bird himself in '84 and '86.

Everyone else on the team was in or near their prime. Mullin and Drexler would soon decline, but they hadn't yet.
About half the players on that team were still going strong a decade later.

[DSMok1]

Here's a link to a table comparing some of those players listed in the last couple of posts: Bird, Magic, Mullin, Kobe, Westbrook, Harden.

http://bkref.com/tiny/RXcd4

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Rk              Player  Season Age  G   MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg  OWS DWS   WS WS/48
1       Magic Johnson* 1990-91  31 79 2933 25.1 .623 .518  4.3 16.9 10.9 49.3  1.8  0.3 20.4 22.9  124  105 11.2 4.2 15.4  .251
2         James Harden 2011-12  22 62 1946 21.1 .660 .582  1.9 12.2  7.4 19.3  1.6  0.6 14.8 21.6  125  105  7.5 1.8  9.3  .230
3    Russell Westbrook 2011-12  23 66 2331 22.9 .538 .481  5.0  9.4  7.4 29.8  2.5  0.7 14.2 32.7  108  105  5.5 2.4  7.9  .163
4          Larry Bird* 1991-92  35 45 1662 21.0 .547 .500  3.2 24.6 14.4 26.9  1.3  1.2 13.1 24.7  112  104  3.0 2.5  5.5  .159
5        Chris Mullin* 1991-92  28 81 3346 19.9 .586 .544  4.2 10.4  7.4 12.2  2.4  1.1 10.2 23.6  118  110  8.1 2.7 10.8  .155
6          Kobe Bryant 2011-12  33 58 2232 21.9 .527 .462  3.5 11.8  7.8 23.7  1.6  0.6 11.7 35.7  105  106  4.2 2.0  6.2  .132

It's not like the '92 numbers were that dominant, outside of Magic.

[DSMok1]

Other than the collegiate players, here are the players in question:

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                                            Tota Tota Tota Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva  Adva Shoo Shoo Shoo
Rk               Player  Season Age  Tm  Lg    G   GS   MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg  OWS  DWS   WS WS/48  FG%  3P%  FT%
3      Charles Barkley* 1990-91  27 PHI NBA   67   67 2498 28.9 .635 .589 11.8 18.6 15.3 20.6  2.2  0.8 12.6 29.1  123  106 10.3  3.1 13.4  .258 .570 .284 .722
1      Charles Barkley* 1991-92  28 PHI NBA   75   75 2881 24.5 .612 .567 10.9 22.0 16.5 18.1  2.4  0.9 14.3 25.1  119  106  8.6  3.7 12.3  .205 .552 .234 .695
2      Charles Barkley* 1992-93  29 PHO NBA   76   76 2859 25.9 .596 .545  9.5 26.3 18.1 21.2  2.0  1.6 12.5 26.9  120  103  9.6  4.8 14.4  .242 .520 .305 .765
4           Larry Bird* 1990-91  34 BOS NBA   60   60 2277 19.7 .530 .492  2.8 20.4 12.3 25.9  2.3  1.5 14.6 23.7  109  103  3.0  3.6  6.6  .140 .454 .389 .891
5           Larry Bird* 1991-92  35 BOS NBA   45   45 1662 21.0 .547 .500  3.2 24.6 14.4 26.9  1.3  1.2 13.1 24.7  112  104  3.0  2.5  5.5  .159 .466 .406 .926
7        Clyde Drexler* 1990-91  28 POR NBA   82   82 2852 22.1 .563 .505  8.3 12.8 10.6 25.7  2.4  1.3 12.9 25.7  117  103  8.0  4.5 12.4  .209 .482 .319 .794
8        Clyde Drexler* 1991-92  29 POR NBA   76   76 2751 23.6 .560 .509  6.6 13.2  9.9 29.9  2.4  1.6 12.4 28.7  117  103  8.3  4.5 12.8  .223 .470 .337 .794
6        Clyde Drexler* 1992-93  30 POR NBA   49   49 1671 20.7 .517 .448  8.0 12.4 10.1 26.2  2.8  1.4 10.9 26.1  112  104  3.4  2.5  6.0  .171 .429 .233 .839
12       Patrick Ewing* 1990-91  28 NYK NBA   81   81 3104 23.7 .561 .514  7.4 25.7 16.8 14.1  1.3  5.0 13.2 31.1  107  101  4.4  5.6 10.0  .155 .514 .000 .745
14       Patrick Ewing* 1991-92  29 NYK NBA   82   82 3150 22.8 .563 .522  8.4 24.9 16.8  8.5  1.4  5.0 10.7 27.2  112   98  6.1  6.9 13.0  .198 .522 .167 .738
13       Patrick Ewing* 1992-93  30 NYK NBA   81   81 3003 20.8 .546 .503  7.3 28.4 18.2  9.2  1.3  3.6 12.9 29.7  105   94  2.6  8.1 10.6  .170 .503 .143 .719
15       Magic Johnson* 1990-91  31 LAL NBA   79   79 2933 25.1 .623 .518  4.3 16.9 10.9 49.3  1.8  0.3 20.4 22.9  124  105 11.2  4.2 15.4  .251 .477 .320 .906
18      Michael Jordan* 1990-91  27 CHI NBA   82   82 3034 31.6 .605 .547  4.6 14.3  9.5 25.2  3.7  1.7  8.7 32.9  125  102 14.9  5.4 20.3  .321 .539 .312 .851
17      Michael Jordan* 1991-92  28 CHI NBA   80   80 3102 27.7 .579 .526  3.5 15.3  9.5 25.7  3.0  1.5  8.8 31.7  121  102 12.1  5.6 17.7  .274 .519 .270 .832
16      Michael Jordan* 1992-93  29 CHI NBA   78   78 3067 29.7 .564 .515  4.9 15.1  9.8 25.2  3.7  1.3  8.4 34.7  119  102 12.0  5.2 17.2  .270 .495 .352 .837
19         Karl Malone* 1990-91  27 UTA NBA   82   82 3302 24.8 .596 .528  9.0 24.5 17.2 14.7  1.4  1.5 10.9 30.1  117  102  9.9  5.6 15.5  .225 .527 .286 .770
20         Karl Malone* 1991-92  28 UTA NBA   81   81 3054 25.4 .599 .527  8.7 24.1 16.8 13.4  1.8  1.0 11.6 30.3  118  103  9.9  5.2 15.1  .237 .526 .176 .778
21         Karl Malone* 1992-93  29 UTA NBA   82   82 3099 26.2 .612 .554  8.6 24.6 16.9 16.9  2.0  1.8 11.7 28.4  120  103 10.4  5.0 15.4  .238 .552 .200 .740
31        Chris Mullin* 1990-91  27 GSW NBA   82   82 3315 21.4 .618 .550  4.7 10.0  7.4 14.9  2.4  1.1 12.6 23.5  121  110  9.7  2.4 12.2  .176 .536 .301 .884
30        Chris Mullin* 1991-92  28 GSW NBA   81   81 3346 19.9 .586 .544  4.2 10.4  7.4 12.2  2.4  1.1 10.2 23.6  118  110  8.1  2.7 10.8  .155 .524 .366 .833
29        Chris Mullin* 1992-93  29 GSW NBA   46   46 1902 19.0 .578 .542  2.5 11.2  6.8 14.0  1.7  1.3 11.9 25.1  113  111  3.6  1.3  4.9  .122 .510 .451 .810
41      Scottie Pippen* 1990-91  25 CHI NBA   82   82 3014 20.6 .561 .529  6.5 16.6 11.6 23.5  3.2  1.9 15.1 21.8  114  102  5.9  5.4 11.2  .179 .520 .309 .706
42      Scottie Pippen* 1991-92  26 CHI NBA   82   82 3164 21.5 .555 .511  6.9 15.8 11.5 25.8  2.5  1.8 14.0 24.6  114  102  7.1  5.5 12.7  .192 .506 .200 .760
40      Scottie Pippen* 1992-93  27 CHI NBA   81   81 3123 19.2 .510 .482  7.3 16.0 11.5 24.0  2.9  1.6 14.2 23.9  108  104  3.8  4.8  8.6  .132 .473 .237 .663
45      David Robinson* 1990-91  25 SAS NBA   82   81 3095 27.4 .615 .552 12.6 24.7 19.0 10.9  2.0  6.2 13.7 26.6  119   96  9.4  7.6 17.0  .264 .552 .143 .762
44      David Robinson* 1991-92  26 SAS NBA   68   68 2564 27.5 .597 .552 11.2 24.0 17.7 11.3  3.1  7.4 12.1 24.7  118   94  7.0  6.9 13.9  .260 .551 .125 .701
43      David Robinson* 1992-93  27 SAS NBA   82   82 3211 24.2 .569 .503  8.6 24.8 17.1 15.0  2.0  5.1 12.5 26.4  113  100  6.7  6.4 13.2  .197 .501 .176 .732
51       John Stockton* 1990-91  28 UTA NBA   82   82 3103 23.4 .604 .537  1.9  6.8  4.5 57.5  3.8  0.3 20.3 20.9  120  104  9.4  4.7 14.0  .217 .507 .345 .836
50       John Stockton* 1991-92  29 UTA NBA   82   82 3002 22.8 .590 .527  2.7  7.3  5.1 53.7  4.1  0.4 20.6 19.9  120  104  8.8  4.6 13.4  .215 .482 .407 .842
49       John Stockton* 1992-93  30 UTA NBA   82   82 2863 21.3 .584 .526  2.6  6.7  4.7 49.8  3.5  0.5 20.1 19.9  118  107  7.2  3.4 10.6  .177 .486 .385 .798

                                           Tota Tota Tota Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva Adva  Adva Shoo Shoo Shoo
Rk              Player  Season Age  Tm  Lg    G   GS   MP  PER  TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg  OWS  DWS   WS WS/48  FG%  3P%  FT%
6      Carmelo Anthony 2011-12  27 NYK NBA   55   55 1876 21.1 .525 .463  5.4 15.9 10.6 21.0  1.7  1.0 10.8 31.8  106  102  3.7  2.6  6.2  .160 .430 .335 .804
14         Kobe Bryant 2011-12  33 LAL NBA   58   58 2232 21.9 .527 .462  3.5 11.8  7.8 23.7  1.6  0.6 11.7 35.7  105  106  4.2  2.0  6.2  .132 .430 .303 .845
18      Tyson Chandler 2011-12  29 NYK NBA   62   62 2061 18.7 .708 .679 11.8 22.7 17.2  4.3  1.4  3.4 17.1 13.0  130   99  5.8  3.6  9.5  .220 .679 .000 .689
27        Kevin Durant 2011-12  23 OKC NBA   66   66 2546 26.2 .610 .547  1.9 20.4 11.8 17.5  1.8  2.2 14.0 31.3  114  101  8.5  3.7 12.2  .230 .496 .387 .860
40        James Harden 2011-12  22 OKC NBA   62    2 1946 21.1 .660 .582  1.9 12.2  7.4 19.3  1.6  0.6 14.8 21.6  125  105  7.5  1.8  9.3  .230 .491 .390 .846
49      Andre Iguodala 2011-12  28 PHI NBA   62   62 2209 17.6 .537 .514  2.8 16.4  9.6 23.7  2.6  1.0 13.8 17.7  108   98  3.1  4.2  7.3  .158 .454 .394 .617
52        LeBron James 2011-12  27 MIA NBA   62   62 2326 30.7 .605 .554  5.0 19.7 12.6 33.6  2.6  1.7 13.3 32.0  118   97 10.0  4.5 14.5  .298 .531 .362 .771
61          Kevin Love 2011-12  23 MIN NBA   55   55 2145 25.4 .568 .497 11.6 26.4 19.0 10.0  1.1  0.9  9.2 28.8  117  104  7.6  2.3 10.0  .223 .448 .372 .824
73          Chris Paul 2011-12  26 LAC NBA   60   60 2181 27.0 .581 .522  2.3  9.4  5.8 43.8  3.8  0.2 10.8 24.3  126  104 10.4  2.3 12.7  .278 .478 .371 .861
88   Russell Westbrook 2011-12  23 OKC NBA   66   66 2331 22.9 .538 .481  5.0  9.4  7.4 29.8  2.5  0.7 14.2 32.7  108  105  5.5  2.4  7.9  .163 .457 .316 .823
89      Deron Williams 2011-12  27 NJN NBA   55   55 1999 20.3 .527 .467  1.3  9.6  5.3 46.6  1.8  0.8 16.7 30.1  106  111  3.7  0.4  4.1  .099 .407 .336 .843

[DSMok1]

Here are the stats of the nearest previous season for each player, sorted by WS/48. Definitely looks like the Dream Team had a bit of an edge, but the 2 best players are from the 2012 team (by a hair).

Code: Select all

                                             Tota Tota  Tota  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva  Adva    Adva      Adva    Shoo  Shoo  Shoo
Player             Season   Age    Tm    Lg     G   GS    MP   PER   TS%  eFG%  ORB%  DRB%  TRB%  AST%  STL%  BLK%  TOV%  USG%  ORtg  DRtg   OWS   DWS      WS     WS/48     FG%   3P%   FT%
LeBron James       2011-12   27   MIA   NBA     62   62  2326  30.7 0.605 0.554   5.0  19.7  12.6  33.6   2.6   1.7  13.3  32.0   118    97  10.0   4.5    14.5     0.298   0.531 0.362 0.771
Chris Paul         2011-12   26   LAC   NBA     60   60  2181  27.0 0.581 0.522   2.3   9.4   5.8  43.8   3.8   0.2  10.8  24.3   126   104  10.4   2.3    12.7     0.278   0.478 0.371 0.861
Michael Jordan*    1991-92   28   CHI   NBA     80   80  3102  27.7 0.579 0.526   3.5  15.3   9.5  25.7   3.0   1.5   8.8  31.7   121   102  12.1   5.6    17.7     0.274   0.519 0.270 0.832
David Robinson*    1991-92   26   SAS   NBA     68   68  2564  27.5 0.597 0.552  11.2  24.0  17.7  11.3   3.1   7.4  12.1  24.7   118    94   7.0   6.9    13.9     0.260   0.551 0.125 0.701
Magic Johnson*     1990-91   31   LAL   NBA     79   79  2933  25.1 0.623 0.518   4.3  16.9  10.9  49.3   1.8   0.3  20.4  22.9   124   105  11.2   4.2    15.4     0.251   0.477 0.320 0.906
Karl Malone*       1991-92   28   UTA   NBA     81   81  3054  25.4 0.599 0.527   8.7  24.1  16.8  13.4   1.8   1.0  11.6  30.3   118   103   9.9   5.2    15.1     0.237   0.526 0.176 0.778
Kevin Durant       2011-12   23   OKC   NBA     66   66  2546  26.2 0.610 0.547   1.9  20.4  11.8  17.5   1.8   2.2  14.0  31.3   114   101   8.5   3.7    12.2     0.230   0.496 0.387 0.860
James Harden       2011-12   22   OKC   NBA     62    2  1946  21.1 0.660 0.582   1.9  12.2   7.4  19.3   1.6   0.6  14.8  21.6   125   105   7.5   1.8     9.3     0.230   0.491 0.390 0.846
Kevin Love         2011-12   23   MIN   NBA     55   55  2145  25.4 0.568 0.497  11.6  26.4  19.0  10.0   1.1   0.9   9.2  28.8   117   104   7.6   2.3    10.0     0.223   0.448 0.372 0.824
Clyde Drexler*     1991-92   29   POR   NBA     76   76  2751  23.6 0.560 0.509   6.6  13.2   9.9  29.9   2.4   1.6  12.4  28.7   117   103   8.3   4.5    12.8     0.223   0.470 0.337 0.794
Tyson Chandler     2011-12   29   NYK   NBA     62   62  2061  18.7 0.708 0.679  11.8  22.7  17.2   4.3   1.4   3.4  17.1  13.0   130    99   5.8   3.6     9.5     0.220   0.679 0.000 0.689
John Stockton*     1991-92   29   UTA   NBA     82   82  3002  22.8 0.590 0.527   2.7   7.3   5.1  53.7   4.1   0.4  20.6  19.9   120   104   8.8   4.6    13.4     0.215   0.482 0.407 0.842
Charles Barkley*   1991-92   28   PHI   NBA     75   75  2881  24.5 0.612 0.567  10.9  22.0  16.5  18.1   2.4   0.9  14.3  25.1   119   106   8.6   3.7    12.3     0.205   0.552 0.234 0.695
Patrick Ewing*     1991-92   29   NYK   NBA     82   82  3150  22.8 0.563 0.522   8.4  24.9  16.8   8.5   1.4   5.0  10.7  27.2   112    98   6.1   6.9    13.0     0.198   0.522 0.167 0.738
Scottie Pippen*    1991-92   26   CHI   NBA     82   82  3164  21.5 0.555 0.511   6.9  15.8  11.5  25.8   2.5   1.8  14.0  24.6   114   102   7.1   5.5    12.7     0.192   0.506 0.200 0.760
Russell Westbrook  2011-12   23   OKC   NBA     66   66  2331  22.9 0.538 0.481   5.0   9.4   7.4  29.8   2.5   0.7  14.2  32.7   108   105   5.5   2.4     7.9     0.163   0.457 0.316 0.823
Carmelo Anthony    2011-12   27   NYK   NBA     55   55  1876  21.1 0.525 0.463   5.4  15.9  10.6  21.0   1.7   1.0  10.8  31.8   106   102   3.7   2.6     6.2     0.160   0.430 0.335 0.804
Larry Bird*        1991-92   35   BOS   NBA     45   45  1662  21.0 0.547 0.500   3.2  24.6  14.4  26.9   1.3   1.2  13.1  24.7   112   104   3.0   2.5     5.5     0.159   0.466 0.406 0.926
Andre Iguodala     2011-12   28   PHI   NBA     62   62  2209  17.6 0.537 0.514   2.8  16.4   9.6  23.7   2.6   1.0  13.8  17.7   108    98   3.1   4.2     7.3     0.158   0.454 0.394 0.617
Chris Mullin*      1991-92   28   GSW   NBA     81   81  3346  19.9 0.586 0.544   4.2  10.4   7.4  12.2   2.4   1.1  10.2  23.6   118   110   8.1   2.7    10.8     0.155   0.524 0.366 0.833
Kobe Bryant        2011-12   33   LAL   NBA     58   58  2232  21.9 0.527 0.462   3.5  11.8   7.8  23.7   1.6   0.6  11.7  35.7   105   106   4.2   2.0     6.2     0.132   0.430 0.303 0.845
Deron Williams     2011-12   27   NJN   NBA     55   55  1999  20.3 0.527 0.467   1.3   9.6   5.3  46.6   1.8   0.8  16.7  30.1   106   111   3.7   0.4     4.1     0.099   0.407 0.336 0.843

[schtevie]

Perhaps I am getting overly grumpy in my old age, but how can a serious conversation on these intertemporal comparisons be had without, in advance, laying bare the specific assumptions about how the take into account the highly relevant changes seen in the NBA/FIBA game over time? Egads!

The 1992 team was composed of players (and coaches) who matured, basically considering the 3 point shot to be an affectation. Not so much for the current team. Might that maybe have an effect on the counterfactual? And then there are all other adaptations to rule changes and (net positive) defensive innovations over the two decades that would swing mightily to the current generations advantage. Might these considerations overturn any "calculated" differential, not taking these factors into account? I wonder.

If the exercise is to determine whether 1992's players were somehow, "in total", farther/or less far out on the tail of a distribution of some offensive-biased measure than 2012's crop, implicitly assuming a notional competition between the two would take place abstracting from the actual evolution (i.e. improvement) of the game over time, what is the point? And why should one care?