Perspective on adjusted plus - minus poll

[xkonk]

.. Even assuming that the equal rating is accurate, it feels like Garnett's is due to things that he brings to the court and could do with many different groups of teammates while Collison's is due to the particular players structured around him. ... Given who they actually tend to play with, however, they are equally valuable.

Is it "equally valuable" to maintain this value over 15-20 minutes or for 30-35 mpg?
Whether Collison's minutes are limited more by his beneficial-teammate specificity, or by his high foul rate, how can he be as valuable as a guy who can play twice as long?

Equally valuable per possession, fair enough. I don't see how that addresses the intent of my post though.

[Crow]

Voted "these are not my views at all" because I am unclear if we're dealing with APM or RAPM. I put a lot of stock in the latter, almost none in the former...

Understood. I was mainly referring to RAPM. But there are other forms of adjusted plus-minus besides the traditional pure APM (by Evan, others) so I broadened it out.



I might calculate a metric blend with boxscore metrics, probably some form of SPM and RAPM again. Not sure exactly how I'll weight it at the moment. Rosenbaum's original weighted blend disappeared completely from public consciousness except for occasional reminders made about it here. Have always wondered if it lived a good life in private for the Cavs or not.

[Mike G]

.. Even assuming that the equal rating is accurate, it feels like Garnett's is due to things that he brings to the court and could do with many different groups of teammates while Collison's is due to the particular players structured around him. ... Given who they actually tend to play with, however, they are equally valuable.

Is it "equally valuable" to maintain this value over 15-20 minutes or for 30-35 mpg?
Whether Collison's minutes are limited more by his beneficial-teammate specificity, or by his high foul rate, how can he be as valuable as a guy who can play twice as long?

Equally valuable per possession, fair enough. I don't see how that addresses the intent of my post though.

Collison's APM numbers look favorable in limited conditions. He's definitely an above-average guy off the bench. He hustles and gives fits both to other bench guys and to starters who may be hoping to catch a break.
In other words, they may be more tired than in their average minutes. APM assumes a given player has a consistent rating.

Look at Collison's productivity as a starter and as a reserve, at b-r.com
Per minute, he does a lot more of everything when he's coming off the bench.
When he has started, against other fresh starters, he's quite subpar.

[Crow]

At J.E's site you can look at Collison's pair and triplets RAPM data and see that his combinations are estimated good with virtually all the main Thunder players. His triplet with the two stars is estimated at the exact same level as his triplet with his best substitute buds. The only combinations that look bad are with Green and presumably mostly because of Green.

He has strong and really strong lineups with 2-4 of the past and current starters including one lineup with 2 starters and 2 subs that was the 13th best in the league from 2008-11.

He rarely got to play with all 4 current starters last season. 21 minutes in the regular season (won by +12 per 100 possessions) and just 3 playoff minutes. 92 minutes of use in 2010-11 resulted in a 1 point favorable scoreboard result. That is average. The sample sizes are too small to say much solid on this lineup. But not having any obvious bad overall RAPM pairs with the starters is better than having an obvious problem. His boxscore stats might dip as the number of other starters increase but he could still be finding ways to have non-boxscore positive impact. Would need to do more sorting and analysis on the lineup data and individual boxscore data associated with them. It could be done with time and incentive.

He only has 7 starts in the last 3 seasons. Collison's boxscore stats were less impressive as a frequent starter in the 3 seasons before that but those were bad teams with bad coaching too. What would his boxscore stats and RAPM look like if he started with this current group? Won't really know unless Perkins go out long-term or permanently and they move him into that spot.

It would be interesting to look at the boxscore stats and RAPM of Collison after he plays 20 minutes in a game. Does his impact tail off? (Same for others.) There might be that opinion or assumption. Not sure if it is well supported or not.