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The discussion of the analysis of basketball through objective evidence, especially basketball statistics.
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 Post subject: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:27 am 
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Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:35 pm
Posts: 62
Location: San Diego, CA
Rediscovering no doubt well-known facts. Team home court advantage over and above the baseline home court advantage; higher is better.

Assumed constant across years.

Code:
team | home 
-----+-------
UTA  | 1.019
DEN  | 1.014
IND  | 1.009
SAC  | 1.009
GSW  | 1.008
LAL  | 1.008
CLE  | 1.008
POR  | 1.005
SAS  | 1.004
ATL  | 1.002
ORL  | 1.002
PHO  | 1.002
WAS  | 1.002
CHA  | 1.001
MIL  | 1.001
DAL  | 1.001
NOK  | 1.000
MEM  | 1.000
MIA  | 0.999
BRK  | 0.999
SEA  | 0.998
CHI  | 0.998
LAC  | 0.996
TOR  | 0.996
HOU  | 0.996
NJN  | 0.995
OKC  | 0.995
DET  | 0.993
CHH  | 0.993
NOH  | 0.992
MIN  | 0.990
BOS  | 0.990
NYK  | 0.988
PHI  | 0.988


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 5:19 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:40 pm
Posts: 111
Utah and Denver with the strongest home court advantages. Both cities are at higher altitudes.

From what seasons are these numbers calculated?


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 6:49 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:18 pm
Posts: 621
Location: Maine
What is standard home court advantage, and what are the units here?

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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 7:02 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 2775
Several sets of recent findings have needed more labeling and explanation. Would appreciate a fuller guide.


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:45 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:35 pm
Posts: 62
Location: San Diego, CA
My model is multiplicative, so roughly:

points scored = home_court_advantage * offense * defense

HCA is modeled separately for offense and defense, depending on whether the offense or defense is home.

HCA itself is composed of two factors, an average factor across all teams, and and individual factor for each team.

HCA = home_court * team_home_court_offense (or team_home_court_defense for defense)

Here home_court is constant across all teams, and the product of all the team_home_court factors equals 1.

The overall impact on a team will be team_home_court_offense/team_home_court_defense.

Here are the separate offensive and defensive HCA values for each team. Above 1.0 is positive for offense (you score more points at home than a typical team) and below 1.0 is positive for defense (you allow fewer points at home than a typical team).

Code:
team | hca_offense | hca_defense
-----+-------------+-------------
ATL  |       1.007 |       1.005
BOS  |       0.990 |       0.999
BRK  |       1.000 |       1.001
CHA  |       0.999 |       0.997
CHH  |       1.001 |       1.008
CHI  |       0.991 |       0.993
CLE  |       1.001 |       0.992
DAL  |       1.006 |       1.005
DEN  |       1.011 |       0.997
DET  |       0.994 |       1.001
GSW  |       1.014 |       1.006
HOU  |       0.988 |       0.992
IND  |       1.003 |       0.994
LAC  |       0.991 |       0.995
LAL  |       1.006 |       0.998
MEM  |       1.003 |       1.003
MIA  |       0.998 |       0.999
MIL  |       1.005 |       1.004
MIN  |       0.994 |       1.004
NJN  |       0.996 |       1.001
NOH  |       0.993 |       1.001
NOK  |       0.998 |       0.998
NYK  |       0.996 |       1.008
OKC  |       0.997 |       1.002
ORL  |       1.000 |       0.998
PHI  |       0.988 |       1.000
PHO  |       1.005 |       1.004
POR  |       1.008 |       1.004
SAC  |       1.011 |       1.002
SAS  |       1.002 |       0.998
SEA  |       0.996 |       0.998
TOR  |       0.999 |       1.003
UTA  |       1.005 |       0.987
WAS  |       1.004 |       1.002


-Chris


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 8:50 pm 
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Posts: 621
Location: Maine
What is the value of home_court itself?

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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:00 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:35 pm
Posts: 62
Location: San Diego, CA
Base HCA for all teams is 1.0167 for offense and 0.9835 for defense. So to get overall HCA for offense multiply that value by the team HCA for offense - the same goes for defense.

-Chris


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:01 pm 
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Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:30 pm
Posts: 399
DSMok1 wrote:
What is the value of home_court itself?

It should be about 1.035....


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:06 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:35 pm
Posts: 62
Location: San Diego, CA
Yep, 1.0167/0.9835 = 1.034.

The Utah Jazz have an enormous advantage over other teams.

-Chris


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:11 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:18 pm
Posts: 621
Location: Maine
Eternal wrote:
Yep, 1.0167/0.9835 = 1.034.

The Utah Jazz have an enormous advantage over other teams.

-Chris


Do you think the sample size is large enough that these numbers have stabilized?

Utah has large travel distances for basically all opponents, and is at an altitude advantage. Denver should be similar.

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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:16 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:35 pm
Posts: 62
Location: San Diego, CA
I'm pooling data across 2002-2013; I should have made that clear. Of course, home court advantage could shift from year to year - this is a topic worthy of much more detailed study, but it's clear there's a gigantic impact.

I could easily geocode arena locations and include distance traveled in my model, but I'd need a list of arena locations by team by year.

-Chris


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:26 pm 
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Joined: Thu Apr 14, 2011 11:10 pm
Posts: 2775
Thanks for the additional explanation.


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:18 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 2428
Location: Asheville, NC
Quote:
Utah has large travel distances for basically all opponents, and is at an altitude advantage. Denver should be similar.
Teams should also have a "road court disadvantage" that could be similarly calculated.
If so, then Utah and Denver may not have an overall advantage. They may be especially sucky on the road.

In Denver vs the Jazz, the Nuggets are 46-32 in regular season games.
In Utah, the Nuggs are 14-65.


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:24 pm 
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Joined: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:35 pm
Posts: 62
Location: San Diego, CA
Road disadvantage would be confounded by strength of team offense and defense in the presence of home advantage factors. You'd need to escalate to team strength estimates based on players in order to estimate road disadvantage.

-Chris


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 Post subject: Re: Home Court Advantage
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:35 pm 
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Joined: Fri Apr 15, 2011 12:02 am
Posts: 2428
Location: Asheville, NC
You mean it would be the same as, or indistinguishable from HCA ?


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