Is Russell Westbrook a superstar?

[Mike G]

My ratings have Westbrook at #4 in creating (equivalent) wins, after Durant, LeBron, and Chris Paul.
He's one of 4 guards and 8 players total with eWins/484 min greater than 2.00. Here are my top guards:

Code: Select all

e82     per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
13.6   Paul,Chris     LAC   33  .571   22.2   4.4  11.2   2.9   2.4   .0   2.45
13.3 Westbrook,Russel Okl   36  .501   24.5   5.2  10.7   2.1   3.3   .4   2.18
10.5   Parker,Tony    SAS   33  .555   24.7   3.9   9.0    .9   2.3   .1   2.03
13.2   Bryant,Kobe    LAL   38  .588   31.9   5.2   4.9   1.5   3.7   .2   2.03
10.6   Rondo,Rajon    Bos   38  .544   15.7   5.4  11.8   1.9   3.8   .3   1.89

_8.5   Wade,Dwyane    Mia   33  .562   25.4   4.6   5.5   1.5   2.7   .7   1.78
11.0   Harden,James   Hou   39  .575   26.2   4.5   5.1   1.7   3.5   .4   1.75
9.0    Conley,Mike    Mem   35  .562   18.8   3.4   7.4   2.6   3.3   .2   1.61
8.3    Dragic,Goran   Phx   33  .560   19.1   3.7   7.1   2.1   2.6   .2   1.57
9.5    Curry,Stephen  GSW   38  .551   21.6   4.3   6.1   1.5   3.0   .1   1.49

In WS/48, he's only #8 among guards. Paul is .280, Kobe .230, Parker .202; then Kidd, Martin, Bledsoe, Harden, and Westbrook at .177
In Win Shares, he's a nose ahead of Harden for #3.
PER has him 4th, in a distinct 2nd tier after Kobe and Paul. He's among Bledsoe, Wade, Harden and Parker.

So, is he 1st team all-NBA, 2nd team, or merely an all-star?

[DSMok1]

By ASPM, I have him as #5 overall in VORP (which accounts for playing time). Per minute, he is 4th in the NBA (passing Kobe).

It comes down to the Kobe question--what is usage worth? ASPM has usage as pretty significant, particularly for PGs, because the only AST term is multiplied by USG.

[Mike G]

Yes, the Kobe question.
Do you have Kobe with more VORP because the Lakers had played more games? They and OKC are now at 26 each.

[DSMok1]

Yes, the Kobe question.
Do you have Kobe with more VORP because the Lakers had played more games? They and OKC are now at 26 each.

Kobe's played more minutes (oddly enough). After last night's game, Westbrook dropped below Kobe in ASPM as well.

[Mike G]

Jason Kidd has a career low Usg% at 12.4 (career 19.4).
His TO% is a career low 12.4, barely half of last year's career high
TS% and eFG% are by far career highs, as are his Blk% and Stl% (not by much).

His .199 WS/48 is a career best, his 18.0 PER exactly average.
Even though I give him extra credit as a starter with modest minutes -- 79% of minutes vs starters -- his eW/484 is 1.55 -- quite a bit below his WS rate.
I have 11 guards with better eWins per minute, but he's 4th in WS/48.

[DSMok1]

Jason Kidd has a career low Usg% at 12.4 (career 19.4).
His TO% is a career low 12.4, barely half of last year's career high
TS% and eFG% are by far career highs, as are his Blk% and Stl% (not by much).

His .199 WS/48 is a career best, his 18.0 PER exactly average.
Even though I give him extra credit as a starter with modest minutes -- 79% of minutes vs starters -- his eW/484 is 1.55 -- quite a bit below his WS rate.
I have 11 guards with better eWins per minute, but he's 4th in WS/48.

I have Kidd as the 4th best guard per minute at this point.

[Crow]

XRAPM has Westbrook estimated as 25th best. That is up from 31st last season. That is about where I would put him subjectively.

[Mike G]

OKC has the best record in the league, and Westbrook leads the team in Usg% -- 31.2, to Durant's 28.8. Martin and Obaka are at 21 and 19, and everyone else is waaay down there.

This offensive distribution has led to them having the top ORtg in the league, as well.
In fact, the 8th best ORtg of this century; after 5 Suns' teams and 2 others.

Last 2 years, Westbrook has been 2nd team all-NBA. This year his 2FG% is off some. But his Ast% is up from 30 to 43; TO% down a bit; Stl% up from 2.5 to 3.0

[Crow]

XRAPM has Russell at 6th best estimated impact on offense, 257th on defense (with a full
-1 now, worse than earlier in the season I believe). No player ahead of him on xRAPM overall has a worse defensive mark and Harden is the only other one who is estimated with a negative defesnive impact (Kobe is at -1.1 on defense but behind Russ overall. Same with Melo.) And yet there is at least one article out there suggesting Westbrook should get 1st team All-NBA defensive team.

[jbrocato23]

Westbrook has a HUGE role (31.1 USG%, 43 AST%) in the best offense in the league. That suggests he's very, very good offensively (especially considering three of the starters probably don't do too much offensively). He might be a slight negative defensively, but his offensive contribution suggests he's almost certainly a top 3 point guard and probably a top 3-5 overall guard in the league. I have him at +5, good for the 5th best player in the league. While xRAPM doesn't rate him too well, IPV, the other RAPM based metric, has him as the 7th best player with Paul being the only guard rated better. The difference there might have a lot to do with the importance of USG% in the spm prior, I'm not sure - making talkingpractice can enlighten us? Where does IPV have RW on defense?

[talkingpractice]

Westbrook has a HUGE role (31.1 USG%, 43 AST%) in the best offense in the league. That suggests he's very, very good offensively (especially considering three of the starters probably don't do too much offensively). He might be a slight negative defensively, but his offensive contribution suggests he's almost certainly a top 3 point guard and probably a top 3-5 overall guard in the league. I have him at +5, good for the 5th best player in the league. While xRAPM doesn't rate him too well, IPV, the other RAPM based metric, has him as the 7th best player with Paul being the only guard rated better. The difference there might have a lot to do with the importance of USG% in the spm prior, I'm not sure - making talkingpractice can enlighten us? Where does IPV have RW on defense?

I agree with pretty much all of this. We've been lazy about updating the site (will do so on Wednesday), but RWB's IPV is at 4.5 right now, with a bit more than 5 coming from offense and about -0.5 or so from defense. For me, I don't even understand the argument that he could be anything but a superstar. He has usage > 30 on a team that gets 1.13 ppp.... no way in heck his defense counters that. I'm surprised by his plus/minus numbers on defense tbh, and wouldn't be surprised at all to see them reverse over time. Subjectively, at worst he's a minor defensive liability, and I still have a hard time accepting that he's a defensive liability at all. The reckless stuff is going away, and he's just entering the bullseye of his prime, too.

In terms of assists, we also (like dsmok) only look at ast*usg... and obv RWB is a rock star in that regard.

[Mike G]

Westbrook is averaging 21.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 8.8 ast, and 2.1 steals
Back off those numbers a bit -- to 21, 4.5, 8, and 1.5 -- and just 4 other players have done that since 1978: Magic (5 times), Payton (4), Chris Paul and LeBron (1 each). Westy also did it 2 years ago.
Surpassing all 4 of his current averages, only 2 examples: 1 Payton and 1 Paul. Peak year for both guys.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5aEU2

... RWB's IPV is at 4.5 right now...

Is there a conversion from IPV ( * minutes or possessions) to individual wins added?

In terms of assists, we also (like dsmok) only look at ast*usg

How does that work? Is it Ast% * Usg% ?
Are possessions getting cancelled out in there?

[DSMok1]

... RWB's IPV is at 4.5 right now...

Is there a conversion from IPV ( * minutes or possessions) to individual wins added?

From another thread:

You can calculated a Points above Replacement statistic for any "efficiency differential denominated" stat. Any of the Plus/Minus stats are denominated in efficiency differential.

The general equation is (PMStat + Replacement Player Level)*%min = Points above Replacement (per 100 possessions played).

The trick is figuring out replacement level. This workbook should help you: http://public.tableausoftware.com/views ... 1?:embed=y .

I'd set RAPM replacement level at -3.5 or so.

Once you have Pts above Replacement calculated, you can attempt to convert to wins. In general, you can't convert directly (Pt. differential does not convert to wins linearly). A quick hack is to use the "average" pt differential to wins conversion, which Dave Berri calculated for us as 3.15 (see the first table at http://wagesofwins.com/how-to-calculate-wins-produced/ ).

So, tying it all together: Dirk had an RAPM of +8.0 last year. He played 64.7% of Dallas's minutes.

So his Points above Replacement would be (8.0+3.5)*.647=7.44, and his Wins above Replacement would be 7.44*3.15=23.4.

Does that explain it well enough?

In terms of assists, we also (like dsmok) only look at ast*usg

How does that work? Is it Ast% * Usg% ?
Are possessions getting cancelled out in there?

USG% does not include assists at all, in its standard definition. Only shots and turnovers.

[bchaikin]

My ratings have Westbrook at #4 in creating (equivalent) wins... So, is he 1st team all-NBA, 2nd team, or merely an all-star?

he is currently shooting just 41.7% on 2pters - and close to 4/5 of all of his FGAs have been 2pt attempts. that's an awful lot of missed shots rebounded by the defense, i.e. zero point team possessions that he is personally responsible for...

[Mike G]

The Euclidean Difference generator finds the closest production similarity between Westbrook and these players.

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates      yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Russell Westbrook 2013   23.8   5.4  10.3   2.7   2.1   3.5   .4
.14   Magic Johnson     1987   25.1   6.6  11.1   2.1   1.8   3.8   .5
.14   Oscar Robertson   1966   24.0   4.8   8.8   2.6   2.4   3.6   .5
.28   Kevin Johnson     1996   21.1   4.3   9.2   2.7   1.5   3.1   .2
.28   Gary Payton       1999   20.8   4.9   8.7   2.2   2.1   2.9   .2

.34   Rod Strickland    1995   20.1   5.3   9.0   1.9   2.0   3.4   .1
.34   Jerry West        1973   22.8   3.6   8.7   2.1   2.4   3.5   .3
.35   Jason Kidd        2003   20.7   6.7   9.6   1.6   2.2   3.7   .3
.36   Deron Williams    2011   20.7   4.3   9.6   2.9   1.2   3.5   .2
.36   Baron Davis       2005   20.2   4.1   8.7   2.9   1.9   3.0   .3

Oscar and West have estimated rates in Stl, TO, Blk