Is Russell Westbrook a superstar?

[v-zero]

Adjusting for his usage we get that he's shooting the equivalent of 55.5% TS and since that is above the team's 52.1% TS I'd say he's a good scorer. Combine that with the high value of his assists and he becomes a top ten offensive player.

[bchaikin]

The Euclidean Difference generator finds the closest production similarity between Westbrook and these players.

are you seriously trying to suggest russell westbrook this season is as good as magic johnson was in 86-97, in terms of helping his team win games? magic shot 9%-10% better overall that year than westbrook is shooting now - that's 9%-10% better over 80 games and 16-17 FGA/g (if westbrook continues to shoot like he has). that's a huge difference...

if you really believe westbrook is playing now as well as magic did in 86-87 in terms of helping their teams win games, what is he doing better now than what magic did then to make up for this very large difference in shooting/offensive efficiency?...

Combine that with the high value of his assists and he becomes a top ten offensive player.

what high value? new york is almost as good as oklahoma city is now in offensive efficiency (they are 2nd and 1st in the league), and the knicks are one of the absolute worst teams in the league in ast/g, ast/min, and ast/fgm. heck, both washington (W-L of 3-22) and new orleans (5-22) get more ast/fgm than oklahoma city does...

how do you determine that his assists have high value?...

[Mike G]

Adjusting for his usage we get that he's shooting the equivalent of 55.5% TS and since that is above the team's 52.1% TS I'd say he's a good scorer..

Thunder have a team TS% of .586, not .521 . Opponents are shooting .514
How do you adjust for usage and boost his TS% from .503 to the equivalent of .555 ?
How do you determine that his assists are "high value"?

[Mike G]

are you seriously trying to suggest russell westbrook this season is as good as magic johnson was in 86-97, in terms of helping his team win games?

Well no, Magic and Oscar had seasons that are closest in each stat category.

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates      yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Russell Westbrook 2013   23.8   5.4  10.3   2.7   2.1   3.5   .4
.14   Magic Johnson     1987   25.1   6.6  11.1   2.1   1.8   3.8   .5

Note that Magic has the higher rates in Scoring, Reb, and Ast.
The sum of these differences, and the others, amounts to about 1.5 points (differential) per game.
This is about 3.6 wins in 82 games, in favor of Magic; if they both avg 36 minutes.

[v-zero]

Thunder have a team TS% of .586, not .521 . Opponents are shooting .514
How do you adjust for usage and boost his TS% from .503 to the equivalent of .555 ?
How do you determine that his assists are "high value"?

Apologies - fat finger error or the like. The usage adjustment consists of considering his usage above team average then gifting him 0.25 points for every piece of usage above team average, with usage being FGA + TOV + 0.44*FTA. That is the adjustment I have found in the work I have done on usage. Assists are generally of a higher value when they come from a high-usage player because he draws more attention than a lower usage assister. You can also look at Westbrook's location assist numbers which reveal further information.

[Bobbofitos]

The Euclidean Difference generator finds the closest production similarity between Westbrook and these players.

Code: Select all

diff   per-36 rates      yr     Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk
.00   Russell Westbrook 2013   23.8   5.4  10.3   2.7   2.1   3.5   .4
.14   Magic Johnson     1987   25.1   6.6  11.1   2.1   1.8   3.8   .5
.14   Oscar Robertson   1966   24.0   4.8   8.8   2.6   2.4   3.6   .5
.28   Kevin Johnson     1996   21.1   4.3   9.2   2.7   1.5   3.1   .2
.28   Gary Payton       1999   20.8   4.9   8.7   2.2   2.1   2.9   .2

.34   Rod Strickland    1995   20.1   5.3   9.0   1.9   2.0   3.4   .1
.34   Jerry West        1973   22.8   3.6   8.7   2.1   2.4   3.5   .3
.35   Jason Kidd        2003   20.7   6.7   9.6   1.6   2.2   3.7   .3
.36   Deron Williams    2011   20.7   4.3   9.6   2.9   1.2   3.5   .2
.36   Baron Davis       2005   20.2   4.1   8.7   2.9   1.9   3.0   .3

Oscar and West have estimated rates in Stl, TO, Blk

What's funny is on that list, not only is RWB the only player labeled "selfish", but most of those other guys (Magic, Kidd) are players everyone in the league wanted/want to play with, because they're noted as "unselfish".

Why such a reputation?

[bchaikin]

RWB the only player labeled "selfish"... Why such a reputation?...

perhaps because since 1977-78, looking at all PGs from the ages of just 21-23, he has averaged 29.3 scoring opportunities per 48 minutes - (FGA + FTA/2)/48 - most among PGs in this age range...

[Mike G]

I don't know about Westbrook being called "selfish", nor about the others on the list.
Deron Williams now presides over 2 mid-season head coaching changes in 3 years.
Rod Strickland and Gary Payton weren't anyone's favorite people either, were they?

Code: Select all

... he has averaged 29.3 scoring opportunities per 48 minutes...

The Thunder have been a pretty good offensive rebounding team the last 3 years, so that's a bit less bad.
Their lineup has tended to have 2 or 3 scorers, of which Westbrook is obviously one.

His shooting has been off, while his passing is up and turnovers are down. Perhaps it's an adjustment period, where he's expected to create even more offense, with Harden being gone. Martin is more just a finisher.

At point guard, he really has no backup. Maynor has not been good, and Reggie Jackson is developing slowly if at all. They're the 2 weakest players on the team, perhaps.

Being the only true ball-handler on the floor in all important minutes is a lot different than being one of two. For one thing, he's seldom just catching and shooting.

[DSMok1]

His shooting has been off, while his passing is up and turnovers are down. Perhaps it's an adjustment period, where he's expected to create even more offense, with Harden being gone. Martin is more just a finisher.

At point guard, he really has no backup. Maynor has not been good, and Reggie Jackson is developing slowly if at all. They're the 2 weakest players on the team, perhaps.

Being the only true ball-handler on the floor in all important minutes is a lot different than being one of two. For one thing, he's seldom just catching and shooting.

This is very good and accurate analysis of what is going on, Mike (I'm a Thunder fan).

[wilq]

What's funny is on that list, not only is RWB the only player labeled "selfish", but most of those other guys (Magic, Kidd) are players everyone in the league wanted/want to play with, because they're noted as "unselfish". Why such a reputation?

Because Westbrook attempted way more shots than those two? http://bkref.com/tiny/pdOil
And maybe more importantly, Westbrook's mistakes on offense are magnified by the fact that he plays next to the best scorer of his generation so every questionable shot he takes with time on the clock backfires against his reputation. Had Westbrook started his career like Wade on a team which he could carry on his back his reputation and perceived value would have been very different, right?

[DSMok1]

What's funny is on that list, not only is RWB the only player labeled "selfish", but most of those other guys (Magic, Kidd) are players everyone in the league wanted/want to play with, because they're noted as "unselfish". Why such a reputation?

Because Westbrook attempted way more shots than those two? http://bkref.com/tiny/pdOil
And maybe more importantly, Westbrook's mistakes on offense are magnified by the fact that he plays next to the best scorer of his generation so every questionable shot he takes with time on the clock backfires against his reputation. Had Westbrook started his career like Wade on a team which he could carry on his back his reputation and perceived value would have been very different, right?

I would argue that Westbrook is very, very similar to Wade.

[Mike G]

An interesting question , and one which non-quantitatively has been used in discussions of qualifications for 'superstar' or 'all-time great' is:
Can this player be the best player on a championship team?

Wade has filled that. Westbrook cannot definitively do so while he is Robin to Durant's Batman.
Both guys are superb scorers, ballhandlers, and distributors.
http://bkref.com/tiny/GSgIO

Wade has been over 40 in Ast% a couple of times. Westbrook is over 42 for the 2nd time.
Reb and Stl are about even. Wade has shot 10% better and scored 10% more.

[DSMok1]

Wade and Westbrook from 3rd to 5th seasons: http://bkref.com/tiny/Eau2V

[Mike G]

Yes that evens it up quite a bit.
However, it includes Wade's injury-plagued '07 and '08 seasons, each missing 31 games -- the latter being rather a crater in his career trajectory.

Both players seem to enjoy the playoffs.

[wilq]

Can this player be the best player on a championship team?[...]
Wade has shot 10% better and scored 10% more.

Isn't this huge enough gap to say that Westbrook doesn't qualify?

Wade has filled that. Westbrook cannot definitively do so while he is Robin to Durant's Batman.

And we've just lost a great opportunity for more information when Thunder decided to trade Harden instead of Westbrook. Barring some kind of epic collapse Westbrook's career will be linked to Durant's for 4 more years.