2012-2013 predictions

[DSMok1]

Good thing Hollinger got a different job!

[Neil Paine]

Good thing Hollinger got a different job!

Yeah, talk about a case of getting out while the getting was good.

[Crow]

Schaller having a down year after winning last season. Schoene near the bottom, as it usually has been thru the years. WOW based ratings have moved up to middle of the pack now. Best I've seen from them. Bovada was 11th at first measurement this season but has moved up over time and is 2nd now.

[RoyceWebb]

This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.

The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.

C'est la vie.

Royce

[DSMok1]

This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.

The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.

C'est la vie.

Royce

When was Hollinger's forecast run? I know most of the leaders in this contest were done quite late.

[RoyceWebb]

This is the first time in five years the ESPN forecast has been seriously handicapped by running so early.

The Harden trade, the Bynum diagnosis, the Love injury and the Nowitzki surgery all happened in September/October, weeks after our forecast.

C'est la vie.

Royce

When was Hollinger's forecast run? I know most of the leaders in this contest were done quite late.

John turned in his stuff in September but updates were made before the season. I don't know which set of numbers is being cited on this board.

RW

[Neil Paine]

Probably a good time to check these again (thru 1/15/13):

Code: Select all

Rank    vs Naive        RMSE            Rank    vs .500         RMSE            Rank    vs Pyth         RMSE
-------------------------------         -------------------------------         -------------------------------
1       Bovada          7.888           1       np "dumb"       6.802           1       np "dumb"       6.236
2       np "dumb"       8.087           2       Bovada          7.119           2       Bovada          6.627
3       Bobbofitos      8.563           3       Bobbofitos      7.521           3       Bobbofitos      7.088
4       ESPN Summer     8.635           4       DSMok1_2        7.722           4       DSMok1_2        7.238
5       LV Hilton       8.703           5       DSMok1          7.737           5       DSMok1          7.264
6       WoW1            8.811           6       WoW1            7.776           6       LV Hilton       7.367
7       WoW2            8.905           7       ESPN Summer     7.802           7       TeamRankings    7.369
8       Schaller        8.933           8       TeamRankings    7.870           8       WoW1            7.377
9       DSMok1_2        8.944           9       LV Hilton       7.871           9       ESPN Summer     7.413
10      DSMok1          8.967           10      WoW2            7.941           10      WoW2            7.512
11      v-zero          9.048           11      Schaller        8.030           11      v-zero          7.514
12      TeamRankings    9.246           12      v-zero          8.171           12      Schaller        7.727
13      Hollinger       9.323           13      Hollinger       8.633           13      Hollinger       8.320
14      SCHOENE         9.717           14      SCHOENE         8.730           14      SCHOENE         8.323
15      All41          12.949           15      All41          11.292           15      All41          11.245
-------------------------------         -------------------------------         -------------------------------

("All41" is just a prediction that every team would finish 41-41.)

John turned in his stuff in September but updates were made before the season. I don't know which set of numbers is being cited on this board.

Hi Royce -- I'm using his final predictions from right after the Harden trade went down: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/ ... kets-trade

[RoyceWebb]

Thanks, Neil.

[bbstats]

Thinking of signing my name in a petition to rename "np 'dumb'" to "np 'smart.'"

[Crow]

5 spot difference for DSMOK1_2 on the naive ranking (first column) compared to the other two rankings. 5 spot difference for ESPN between 1st and 3rd columns. Most of the other contestants' ranks vary by 2 or less spots.

[Neil Paine]

Time to update these:

Code: Select all

---------------------           ---------------------           ---------------------
naive_pace      RMSE            .500 prior      RMSE            pyth prior      RMSE
---------------------           ---------------------           ---------------------
Bovada          6.12            Bovada          5.83            Bovada          5.62
np "dumb"       6.79            np "dumb"       6.18            np "dumb"       5.92
ESPN Summer     6.89            ESPN Summer     6.55            ESPN Summer     6.41
Schaller        6.94            Schaller        6.57            Bobbofitos      6.45
LV Hilton       7.01            Bobbofitos      6.64            LV Hilton       6.45
Hollinger       7.03            LV Hilton       6.67            Schaller        6.49
Bobbofitos      7.11            WoW1            6.78            v-zero          6.52
v-zero          7.18            Hollinger       6.81            DSMok1_2        6.61
WoW1            7.24            DSMok1_2        6.82            WoW1            6.62
DSMok1_2        7.39            v-zero          6.83            DSMok1          6.65
WoW2            7.43            DSMok1          6.85            Hollinger       6.74
DSMok1          7.43            WoW2            7.01            TeamRankings    6.82
TeamRankings    7.71            TeamRankings    7.04            WoW2            6.83
2012reg         8.12            2012reg         7.76            2012reg         7.30
SCHOENE         8.28            SCHOENE         7.85            SCHOENE         7.68
all41          11.89            all41          11.07            all41          11.07
---------------------           ---------------------           ---------------------

You can't beat Vegas!

[Neil Paine]

I should note that I added a new "contestant"/sanity check -- "2012reg" is just what we'd predict if we took last year's record for each team and added on 11.8 games of .500 ball. Not to speak ill of SCHOENE, and I hope it passes 2012reg before the season ends, but any system worth its salt should not be losing to a regressed version of last year's record that doesn't take into account last year's point differential/SRS or any offseason transactions.

[v-zero]

Vegas is looking good right now, thankfully I didn't have to bet on all of my predictions. I did have a spread bet on a few (financial style spread bet, i.e. £x per win under/over depending on whether you 'buy' or 'sell'), and I am generally pleased with those, though some were complete misses:

Sold the Lakeshow at 58 wins: Excellent.
Bought Washington at 28: Bad, but they should make some of that back now.
Bought Orlando at 24.5: Fine, not bad, not particularly good.
Bought the Spurs at 56: Good.
Sold Indiana at 50.5: Fine again.
Sold Brooklyn at 44: Oops. Still waiting for them to regress tbh.
Bought Houston at 30.5: Like stealing money.

[Crow]

Pretty big rises by Schaller and Hollinger. Notable drops by WOW and DSMok1.

[John Hollinger]

Don't call it a comeback