Kemba Walker now close to average on ws/48. Can longer see a current xRAPM rating.
Did JE get contracted by a team?
Most Improved 2012-13
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
The links still work, though the menu doesn't show them: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2013.htmlCrow wrote:Kemba Walker now close to average on ws/48. Can longer see a current xRAPM rating.
Did JE get contracted by a team?
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
The team links don't work, however.
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
DSMok1, thanks for the tip.
Kemba is currently -1.2 on xRAPM, better than his worse than -2 last season on RAPM. IPV has him as slightly above neutral, in agreement with winshares per 48 that his performance is about average now (but not star level).
Kemba is currently -1.2 on xRAPM, better than his worse than -2 last season on RAPM. IPV has him as slightly above neutral, in agreement with winshares per 48 that his performance is about average now (but not star level).
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talkingpractice
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Re: Most Improved 2012-13
Interestingly, our rapm component is grading him pretty well on defense (-0.2 or so if we ignore his prior), which I can't help but think may be due to how awful Gordon is on that side of the court (and Sessions too). Even regressing him back towards his bad prior on defense, we still have his offense (+1.2) looking really good, making him a positive overall.Crow wrote: IPV has him as slightly above neutral, in agreement with winshares per 48 that his performance is about average now (but not star level).
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
Players this year over 33 mpg, > 25 Usg%, > 30 Ast%, and > .500 TS%:
Jrue Holiday, LeBron, Kyrie Irving, Westbrook, and Kemba Walker.
Last year the list was LeBron, Deron Williams, and Rose.
The year before, same 3 plus Westbrook.
Of 90 players to have made these marks since 1982, Walker's Stl% (2.8) is 20th best, and his TO% is 23rd best.
http://bkref.com/tiny/gvAoz
Jrue Holiday, LeBron, Kyrie Irving, Westbrook, and Kemba Walker.
Last year the list was LeBron, Deron Williams, and Rose.
The year before, same 3 plus Westbrook.
Of 90 players to have made these marks since 1982, Walker's Stl% (2.8) is 20th best, and his TO% is 23rd best.
http://bkref.com/tiny/gvAoz
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
Just past the midway point in the season, players whose improvement has given their teams at least half a win more or less than they'd have if the player was as good as last year, in the minutes they've played this year.
About 70% of players are within .50 eWins of last year's productivity.
About 70% of players are within .50 eWins of last year's productivity.
Code: Select all
eW+ Atlanta Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
+.54 Stevenson,Deshaw .535 9.2 4.5 1.5 .36 NJN .411 4.8 3.9 1.5 -.08
-.51 Harris,Devin .557 14.3 3.0 3.6 .76 Uta .553 16.1 2.5 6.6 1.17
-.65 Williams,Louis .547 18.9 2.6 4.0 1.01 Phl .515 21.6 3.1 3.9 1.31
-1.21 Smith,Josh .473 18.4 9.1 4.0 1.49 .490 21.2 10.7 4.2 1.95
eW+ Boston Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.96 Terry,Jason .537 13.4 2.6 2.7 .53 Dal .537 17.9 2.6 4.0 .93
-.98 Bass,Brandon .494 10.8 7.3 1.0 .58 .517 15.9 7.4 1.1 1.02
-1.03 Garnett,Kevin .531 19.1 9.2 2.4 1.47 .543 21.7 10.3 3.6 1.88
eW+ Brooklyn Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.61 Blatche,Andray .532 20.1 10.8 1.9 1.57 Was .410 11.4 8.6 1.4 .68
1.10 Evans,Reggie .512 5.5 15.4 1.0 1.26 LAC .484 4.2 11.8 .6 .68
1.06 Lopez,Brook .551 25.1 10.2 1.1 1.81 NJN .516 26.0 5.1 1.6 1.34
-.66 Watson,C.J. .519 12.4 2.9 3.3 .59 Chi .485 16.3 3.3 6.2 1.04
-1.30 Johnson,Joe .523 18.1 3.2 3.6 .93 Atl .551 22.2 4.1 4.0 1.34
eW+ Charlotte Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.04 Walker,Kemba .513 18.4 3.6 5.2 1.19 .457 14.8 4.7 4.4 .86
-1.03 Haywood,Brendan .478 6.6 8.7 .8 .37 Dal .509 9.2 10.4 .6 .96
eW+ Chicago Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.68 Hinrich,Kirk .468 9.4 3.8 6.7 .82 Atl .508 10.0 3.1 3.8 .51
.54 Butler,Jimmy .564 11.9 5.6 1.6 .77 .509 10.0 4.7 1.2 .45
-1.04 Noah,Joakim .504 13.1 11.0 3.8 1.48 .551 14.6 12.4 3.1 1.83
eW+ Cleveland Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.96 Thompson,Tristan .506 12.0 11.3 1.3 1.09 .460 11.4 9.9 .6 .76
.78 Varejao,Anderson .519 14.4 15.5 3.1 1.93 .533 12.9 14.1 1.9 1.54
.66 Walton,Luke .416 7.2 6.2 3.7 .47 .422 4.1 3.8 2.7 -.49
.54 Pargo,Jeremy .472 14.9 2.6 4.3 .54 Mem .385 8.8 2.8 4.1 -.04
-.65 Gee,Alonzo .497 12.2 4.8 2.0 .51 .505 12.7 6.5 1.9 .74
eW+ Dallas Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.53 Mayo,O.J. .574 19.3 3.8 3.9 1.06 Mem .507 17.0 4.3 3.3 .90
-.56 Nowitzki,Dirk .494 16.6 6.8 2.7 1.05 .553 26.2 7.6 2.4 1.68
-.63 Beaubois,Rodrigu .389 7.5 2.9 4.5 .19 .492 14.7 4.5 4.7 1.05
-.79 Brand,Elton .508 11.7 10.1 1.5 1.03 Phl .516 15.7 9.3 2.0 1.50
eW+ Denver Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.53 Mcgee,Javale .562 17.9 8.7 .8 1.23 Was .531 16.1 12.2 .7 1.55
-.60 Faried,Kenneth .554 15.0 12.5 1.2 1.50 .602 17.2 13.2 1.2 1.74
-1.13 Lawson,Ty .493 15.7 2.9 7.0 1.06 .571 18.1 4.2 6.8 1.45
-1.52 Iguodala,Andre .500 14.1 5.9 4.6 1.04 Phl .527 14.8 6.5 5.2 1.53
eW+ Detroit Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.75 Bynum,Will .504 17.6 2.7 6.3 .98 .451 12.4 3.7 3.6 .34
.62 Knight,Brandon .515 17.0 4.3 4.9 .89 .506 15.3 4.0 3.9 .68
-.55 Monroe,Greg .507 18.3 10.7 3.6 1.52 .553 19.6 12.4 2.5 1.74
-.57 Stuckey,Rodney .481 15.1 3.5 4.9 .83 .536 19.5 3.5 4.1 1.11
eW+ Golden St. Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.90 Lee,David .554 20.1 10.8 3.7 1.67 .540 20.1 9.6 2.6 1.40
eW+ Houston Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.72 Morris,Marcus .535 13.3 6.6 1.6 .70 .345 7.9 3.9 .7 -.16
.78 Asik,Omer .539 12.3 14.0 1.4 1.31 Chi .494 7.4 11.7 1.1 1.04
.70 Harden,James .567 25.1 4.4 5.1 1.63 Okl .642 21.1 4.7 4.1 1.44
.65 Patterson,Patric .542 14.9 6.6 1.8 .83 .454 10.5 6.7 1.2 .50
.52 Smith,Greg .641 12.9 10.1 .9 1.15 .636 6.5 9.0 .4 .70
-1.95 Lin,Jeremy .500 13.1 4.3 7.1 1.06 NYK .540 21.5 4.3 8.9 1.72
eW+ Indiana Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.57 Stephenson,Lance .536 11.5 4.7 3.6 .79 .397 7.0 3.7 3.6 .14
.74 Hill,George .527 17.6 4.7 5.1 1.28 .548 14.1 4.1 4.4 1.04
.69 West,David .506 20.7 8.8 3.2 1.60 .524 17.4 8.6 3.1 1.39
.55 George,Paul .522 19.9 8.0 3.8 1.52 .547 16.5 7.2 3.3 1.37
-.92 Green,Gerald .444 12.4 4.5 1.1 .27 NJN .567 17.9 4.9 1.5 .81
-.97 Hibbert,Roy .442 13.7 10.8 1.9 1.18 .530 17.1 11.2 2.4 1.59
eW+ LA Clippers Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.36 Bledsoe,Eric .520 16.9 5.5 5.0 1.27 .446 8.8 4.7 4.1 .52
.73 Paul,Chris .578 20.9 4.1 10.9 2.33 .571 22.5 4.0 8.5 2.10
.54 Odom,Lamar .388 6.1 10.7 3.2 .87 Dal .417 10.4 6.8 2.8 .58
-.54 Turiaf,Ronny .497 6.0 7.2 1.5 .55 Mia .549 7.6 9.7 .8 1.08
eW+ LA Lakers Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.62 Artest,Ron .541 14.0 6.0 1.6 .83 .472 10.5 4.7 2.7 .64
-.52 Jamison,Antawn .537 11.8 7.6 1.5 .74 Cle .474 18.4 7.3 2.0 1.10
-.57 Nash,Steve .604 12.7 3.1 9.4 1.26 Phx .617 16.0 3.6 12.3 1.74
-.90 Gasol,Pau .485 13.5 9.1 3.9 1.21 .539 18.5 10.7 3.5 1.68
-1.51 Howard,Dwight .554 17.7 12.8 1.7 1.71 Orl .550 22.1 14.9 2.0 2.27
eW+ Memphis Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.08 Randolph,Zach .516 19.0 13.4 1.5 1.69 .492 16.1 11.4 2.4 1.33
-.62 Bayless,Jerryd .465 11.0 3.8 6.1 .72 Tor .552 19.2 3.5 5.2 1.15
-.62 Allen,Tony .465 12.1 6.0 1.7 .80 .531 15.0 6.0 2.0 1.09
eW+ Miami Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.78 Wade,Dwyane .563 24.5 5.5 5.4 1.81 .549 27.9 5.9 5.7 2.15
eW+ Milwaukee Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.39 Sanders,Larry .536 11.9 11.7 1.3 1.43 .458 8.4 7.6 1.5 .76
-.55 Ilyasova,Ersan .508 15.0 9.0 2.1 1.21 .568 17.6 11.5 1.5 1.52
-.84 Udoh,Ekpe .465 7.2 6.1 1.1 .42 .481 9.2 7.8 1.8 .96
eW+ Minnesota Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.87 Stiemsma,Greg .433 7.7 6.2 .7 .16 Bos .573 7.7 7.6 1.2 1.09
eW+ New Orleans Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.34 Vasquez,Greivis .511 16.1 5.3 8.6 1.32 .507 13.1 3.9 6.5 .89
1.01 Lopez,Robin .575 16.7 8.3 1.1 1.19 Phx .513 11.9 7.4 .7 .75
.96 Aminu,Al-Farouq .523 11.1 10.8 1.8 1.04 .471 9.5 7.7 1.3 .58
-.56 Anderson,Ryan .559 19.6 8.3 1.2 1.24 Orl .582 20.4 9.4 1.1 1.46
eW+ New York Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.58 Felton,Raymond .457 17.7 3.3 7.7 1.23 Por .486 13.4 3.0 7.4 .95
-.71 Novak,Steve .606 10.4 3.2 .8 .28 .679 16.8 3.5 .4 .66
eW+ Oklahoma Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.30 Durant,Kevin .641 30.9 7.4 4.6 2.37 .598 29.7 8.0 3.5 2.04
1.23 Westbrook,Russel .509 24.4 5.7 9.6 2.08 .529 26.2 5.0 6.2 1.73
.50 Collison,Nick .624 10.6 7.9 2.7 .93 .612 7.8 7.1 2.2 .65
-.51 Martin,Kevin .608 18.8 3.0 1.7 .86 Hou .544 21.1 3.3 3.1 1.07
eW+ Orlando Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.32 Vucevic,Nikola .528 13.6 13.2 1.7 1.42 Phl .459 12.3 10.1 1.2 .97
.84 Davis,Glen .482 17.7 8.9 2.1 1.18 .458 13.7 8.4 1.2 .79
.53 Moore,E'Twaun .521 13.9 3.7 3.7 .58 Bos .468 10.7 3.1 3.0 .26
eW+ Philly Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.86 Holiday,Jrue .516 19.4 4.2 7.3 1.34 .492 16.5 3.6 4.6 1.07
-1.13 Hawes,Spencer .510 14.8 9.0 2.0 1.03 .512 15.7 10.7 3.6 1.60
eW+ Phoenix Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.18 Gortat,Marcin .547 13.4 10.3 1.4 1.21 .568 18.4 11.8 1.0 1.64
eW+ Portland Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.76 Hickson,J.J. .566 16.2 14.4 1.3 1.65 .558 18.0 10.0 1.4 1.36
.62 Batum,Nicolas .564 16.6 6.0 4.1 1.25 .568 17.3 5.8 1.6 1.08
eW+ Sacramento Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.64 Salmons,John .528 11.6 3.4 3.5 .61 .468 9.0 3.9 2.5 .34
-.50 Thomas,Isaiah .548 17.1 2.6 4.3 .79 .566 16.0 3.6 5.1 1.06
-.56 Thornton,Marcus .508 16.1 3.7 1.5 .60 .538 19.0 3.9 1.9 .93
-.98 Johnson,James .442 9.8 5.9 1.8 .43 Tor .492 13.6 7.2 2.6 1.08
eW+ San Antonio Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.67 Duncan,Tim .548 22.9 12.3 3.6 2.22 .522 21.1 12.4 3.2 2.00
.59 Parker,Tony .571 24.7 3.4 9.1 1.98 .531 22.5 3.5 9.4 1.81
.55 Splitter,Tiago .633 17.8 9.0 2.2 1.62 .633 17.9 9.3 2.0 1.38
-.63 Mills,Patrick .582 15.2 2.9 2.6 .56 .600 23.1 3.7 5.1 1.33
-.71 Green,Danny .570 13.5 4.5 1.9 .73 .572 15.0 5.6 2.1 1.03
eW+ Toronto Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.73 Davis,Ed .563 14.8 10.5 1.8 1.32 .535 9.8 10.3 1.2 .99
.62 Anderson,Alan .510 17.4 3.3 2.5 .74 .513 13.5 2.9 1.8 .29
.61 Calderon,Jose .596 15.5 3.2 9.2 1.52 .543 12.6 3.5 9.0 1.30
-.74 Bargnani,Andrea .480 17.7 5.2 1.4 .74 .528 23.4 6.6 1.9 1.28
eW+ Utah Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.65 Carroll,Demarre .517 11.2 7.1 1.7 .89 .444 9.4 5.5 1.6 .37
.57 Williams,Mo .532 15.9 2.5 7.9 1.11 LAC .526 16.9 2.5 3.5 .76
-1.02 Williams,Marvin .525 12.2 5.1 1.3 .56 Atl .532 15.1 7.5 1.7 1.12
eW+ Washington Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
.86 Webster,Martell .583 14.4 5.3 2.2 .83 Min .526 9.9 5.3 1.3 .44
.60 Crawford,Jordan .508 19.6 4.5 4.7 1.07 .482 18.8 3.5 3.4 .80
-.68 Seraphin,Kevin .456 15.4 7.0 1.1 .59 .542 13.4 8.3 .9 .93
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
All-Star break update. Season at 64%
Most unimproved:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.11 Morris,Marcus Hou .531 13.6 7.0 1.6 .72 .345 7.9 3.9 .7 -.16
2.11 Bledsoe,Eric LAC .516 17.0 5.4 5.6 1.34 .446 8.8 4.7 4.1 .52
2.06 Durant,Kevin Okl .641 30.5 7.4 4.6 2.50 .598 29.7 8.0 3.5 2.04
2.05 Blatche,Andray Brk .524 19.8 10.7 2.0 1.65 Was .410 11.4 8.6 1.4 .68
1.88 Westbrook,Russel Okl .512 24.6 5.5 9.8 2.19 .529 26.2 5.0 6.2 1.73
1.84 Stephenson,Lance Ind .532 12.1 4.9 3.7 .74 .397 7.0 3.7 3.6 .14
1.75 Vucevic,Nikola Orl .531 14.1 13.4 1.7 1.45 Phl .459 12.3 10.1 1.2 .97
1.72 Lopez,Brook Brk .555 24.8 9.8 1.2 1.92 NJN .516 26.0 5.1 1.6 1.34
1.62 Harden,James Hou .584 25.6 4.8 5.5 1.81 Okl .642 21.1 4.7 4.1 1.44
1.58 Vasquez,Greivis NOH .502 15.8 5.3 9.3 1.30 .507 13.1 3.9 6.5 .89
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.52 Lopez,Robin NOH .586 17.3 8.4 1.1 1.27 Phx .513 11.9 7.4 .7 .75
1.50 Sanders,Larry Mil .530 12.2 11.7 1.3 1.38 .458 8.4 7.6 1.5 .76
1.35 West,David Ind .518 21.4 8.5 3.4 1.75 .524 17.4 8.6 3.1 1.39
1.34 Parker,Tony SAS .587 26.0 3.5 9.5 2.17 .531 22.5 3.5 9.4 1.81
1.30 Walker,Kemba Cha .507 18.0 3.7 5.3 1.20 .457 14.8 4.7 4.4 .86
1.29 Randolph,Zach Mem .507 18.1 13.4 1.6 1.67 .492 16.1 11.4 2.4 1.33
1.25 Thompson,Tristan Cle .521 12.9 11.1 1.4 1.11 .460 11.4 9.9 .6 .76
1.24 Bynum,Will Det .515 18.6 2.7 6.8 1.07 .451 12.4 3.7 3.6 .34
1.19 Patterson,Patric Hou .567 15.7 6.8 1.7 .96 .454 10.5 6.7 1.2 .50
1.16 Robinson,Nate Chi .539 20.5 3.7 6.2 1.47 GSW .527 16.2 2.9 5.8 1.03
1.07 Aminu,Al-Farouq NOH .522 10.9 11.3 1.7 .98 .471 9.5 7.7 1.3 .58
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-2.41 Lin,Jeremy Hou .519 14.0 4.0 7.5 1.06 NYK .540 21.5 4.3 8.9 1.72
-2.25 Howard,Dwight LAL .554 17.3 12.5 1.6 1.61 Orl .550 22.1 14.9 2.0 2.27
-1.83 Gortat,Marcin Phx .543 13.2 10.4 1.3 1.10 .568 18.4 11.8 1.0 1.64
-1.77 Iguodala,Andre Den .511 14.4 5.9 5.0 1.04 Phl .527 14.8 6.5 5.2 1.53
-1.76 Johnson,Joe Brk .518 17.6 3.2 3.6 .90 Atl .551 22.2 4.1 4.0 1.34
-1.70 Noah,Joakim Chi .505 12.6 11.5 3.9 1.37 .551 14.6 12.4 3.1 1.83
-1.66 Williams,Marvin Uta .518 11.4 5.4 1.3 .45 Atl .532 15.1 7.5 1.7 1.12
-1.46 Haywood,Brendan Cha .451 6.5 8.8 .9 .25 Dal .509 9.2 10.4 .6 .96
-1.46 Nash,Steve LAL .610 13.9 3.1 8.3 1.01 Phx .617 16.0 3.6 12.3 1.74
-1.37 Hawes,Spencer Phl .498 14.8 9.1 2.1 1.07 .512 15.7 10.7 3.6 1.60
W+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.23 Wallace,Gerald Brk .527 11.2 6.7 3.3 .82 NJN .519 15.8 7.4 3.1 1.27
-1.20 Bass,Brandon Bos .494 10.9 7.2 1.3 .59 .517 15.9 7.4 1.1 1.02
-1.10 Smith,Josh Atl .488 18.8 9.2 4.2 1.62 .490 21.2 10.7 4.2 1.95
-1.10 Gasol,Pau LAL .498 14.4 8.8 4.0 1.23 .539 18.5 10.7 3.5 1.68
-1.10 Udoh,Ekpe Mil .466 7.5 6.4 1.2 .36 .481 9.2 7.8 1.8 .96
-1.09 Gee,Alonzo Cle .499 11.7 4.8 2.0 .43 .505 12.7 6.5 1.9 .74
-1.07 Hibbert,Roy Ind .440 13.9 11.0 2.0 1.23 .530 17.1 11.2 2.4 1.59
-1.05 Johnson,James Sac .444 10.3 6.0 2.0 .45 Tor .492 13.6 7.2 2.6 1.08
-1.03 Brand,Elton Dal .484 11.4 10.1 1.5 1.01 Phl .516 15.7 9.3 2.0 1.50
-1.01 Stuckey,Rodney Det .480 14.9 3.7 4.2 .74 .536 19.5 3.5 4.1 1.11
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
Only 8 of the 20 most imprioved are now above .100 on e484. Probably only 1 or 2 shifted from below average to above average.
17 of the 20 biggest declines are for guys still above average.
Edit: I misinterpreted the table, as explained below. Ignore this.
17 of the 20 biggest declines are for guys still above average.
Edit: I misinterpreted the table, as explained below. Ignore this.
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
No, 8 of 20 top improvers were above average last year (2nd set of columns). This year, 16 of them are > 1.00
And 8 of 20 decliners are now below 1.00
Both lists will tend to have more above-avg players, because in both cases their decline (in eW/484) is multiplied by their minutes this season.
I just noticed both Durant and Westbrook are up .46 in their e484. Durant's done it for more minutes, so his eWins added (eW+) are greater.
And 8 of 20 decliners are now below 1.00
Both lists will tend to have more above-avg players, because in both cases their decline (in eW/484) is multiplied by their minutes this season.
I just noticed both Durant and Westbrook are up .46 in their e484. Durant's done it for more minutes, so his eWins added (eW+) are greater.
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
Thanks for the clarification. Looking at it quickly I didn't realize that the table had values for e484 for this season and last and that the far right column was for 2012 and not 2013.
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
At .766 of the season
Former leader Marcus Morris has abdicated, by getting traded.The list is now almost entirely players who have made solid improvement over major minutes.
Bottom of the list; players who have gotten large minutes at greatly reduced productivity:
Former leader Marcus Morris has abdicated, by getting traded.
Code: Select all
Additional equiv. wins added 2012-13 Season 2011-12 Season
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
2.74 Durant,Kevin Okl .628 30.2 7.9 5.1 2.56 .598 29.7 8.0 3.5 2.04
2.62 Westbrook,Russel Okl .523 25.8 5.6 9.5 2.27 .529 26.2 5.0 6.2 1.73
2.45 Blatche,Andray Brk .529 19.9 10.4 2.0 1.66 Was .410 11.4 8.6 1.4 .68
2.33 Stephenson,Lance Ind .530 12.4 5.0 3.7 .77 .397 7.0 3.7 3.6 .14
2.31 Harden,James Hou .590 25.9 4.8 5.7 1.89 Okl .642 21.1 4.7 4.1 1.44
2.07 West,David Ind .531 22.2 8.7 3.6 1.86 .524 17.4 8.6 3.1 1.39
2.04 Bledsoe,Eric LAC .512 16.1 5.5 5.5 1.25 .446 8.8 4.7 4.1 .52
2.00 Lopez,Brook Brk .552 24.3 9.4 1.3 1.89 .516 26.0 5.1 1.6 1.34
1.91 Sanders,Larry Mil .522 12.2 11.9 1.5 1.39 .458 8.4 7.6 1.5 .76
1.88 Vucevic,Nikola Orl .534 13.9 13.3 1.7 1.39 Phl .459 12.3 10.1 1.2 .97
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
1.77 Vasquez,Greivis NOH .497 15.6 5.2 9.1 1.27 .507 13.1 3.9 6.5 .89
1.76 Bryant,Kobe LAL .568 27.4 5.3 5.6 1.94 .517 28.5 5.4 4.0 1.61
1.68 Thompson,Tristan Cle .513 13.0 11.5 1.5 1.16 .460 11.4 9.9 .6 .76
1.55 Randolph,Zach Mem .500 18.4 13.3 1.7 1.70 .492 16.1 11.4 2.4 1.33
1.54 Parker,Tony SAS .585 26.2 3.5 9.4 2.19 .531 22.5 3.5 9.4 1.81
1.48 Walker,Kemba Cha .508 18.1 3.7 5.2 1.18 .457 14.8 4.7 4.4 .86
1.39 Lee,David GSW .549 19.2 11.1 3.7 1.68 .540 20.1 9.6 2.6 1.40
1.38 Webster,Martell Was .608 15.2 4.9 2.1 .83 Min .526 9.9 5.3 1.3 .44
1.35 Lopez,Robin NOH .568 16.4 8.1 1.0 1.14 Phx .513 11.9 7.4 .7 .75
1.34 Smith,J.R. NYK .496 18.4 5.8 3.4 1.28 .504 15.5 5.0 3.3 .96
Bottom of the list; players who have gotten large minutes at greatly reduced productivity:
Code: Select all
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-2.79 Lin,Jeremy Hou .522 14.3 3.9 7.6 1.06 NYK .540 21.5 4.3 8.9 1.72
-2.68 Howard,Dwight LAL .546 16.9 12.9 1.5 1.62 Orl .550 22.1 14.9 2.0 2.27
-2.07 Gortat,Marcin Phx .535 13.3 10.4 1.3 1.09 .568 18.4 11.8 1.0 1.64
-2.03 Nash,Steve LAL .608 14.5 3.2 7.8 .99 Phx .617 16.0 3.6 12.3 1.74
-1.96 Johnson,Joe Brk .514 17.5 3.4 3.8 .91 Atl .551 22.2 4.1 4.0 1.34
-1.94 Iguodala,Andre Den .512 14.1 5.8 5.4 1.08 Phl .527 14.8 6.5 5.2 1.53
-1.88 Williams,Marvin Uta .506 11.3 5.6 1.4 .46 Atl .532 15.1 7.5 1.7 1.12
-1.82 Hawes,Spencer Phl .489 14.3 9.2 2.1 1.04 .512 15.7 10.7 3.6 1.60
-1.76 Noah,Joakim Chi .512 13.1 11.6 3.9 1.44 .551 14.6 12.4 3.1 1.83
-1.75 Haywood,Brendan Cha .439 5.9 8.7 .7 .21 Dal .509 9.2 10.4 .6 .96
eW+ per36 rates tm Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012: Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-1.65 Wallace,Gerald Brk .497 10.7 6.6 3.3 .77 .519 15.8 7.4 3.1 1.27
-1.52 Stuckey,Rodney Det .478 13.9 3.7 3.9 .65 .536 19.5 3.5 4.1 1.11
-1.52 Smith,Josh Atl .486 18.5 9.1 4.3 1.58 .490 21.2 10.7 4.2 1.95
-1.50 Bass,Brandon Bos .496 10.7 7.1 1.2 .57 .517 15.9 7.4 1.1 1.02
-1.31 Gee,Alonzo Cle .497 11.6 4.7 1.9 .42 .505 12.7 6.5 1.9 .74
-1.28 Udoh,Ekpe Mil .474 7.3 6.2 1.1 .34 .481 9.2 7.8 1.8 .96
-1.28 Johnson,James Sac .440 9.9 5.7 2.1 .37 Tor .492 13.6 7.2 2.6 1.08
-1.27 Bargnani,Andrea Tor .478 15.8 4.9 1.3 .66 .528 23.4 6.6 1.9 1.28
-1.20 Stiemsma,Greg Min .465 7.9 7.0 .9 .31 Bos .573 7.7 7.6 1.2 1.09
-1.13 Hibbert,Roy Ind .461 14.7 10.5 2.1 1.26 .530 17.1 11.2 2.4 1.59
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
About six weeks ago, I posted a team-by-team list of players with .5 eWins more or less than last year's rates would have predicted. For the Nuggets:
Four players significantly worse (less productive) than last year, and no one improved by this much.
Since that time, Lawson has cut his deficit to -.57 (by playing better than he did last year), but the others have continued to lag.
Two players -- Cory Brewer and Wilson Chandler -- have peeked above the +.50 eW mark. But the team's players in sum are still -2.7 eWins from what they'd done last year.
They have no significant rookies; so how can they have improved from SRS 3.16 last year to 5.05 this year? From +2.9 ppg to +4.8
Did they hit a closeout sale on players who are (a) in decline, but (b) still very good ?
They got Iguodala for Afflalo and Harrington
McGee plays 18 mpg -- roughly what they got from him/ Nene last year.
Here's the whole lineup, last year and this year, in eWins and Win Shares:
Code: Select all
eW+ Denver Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484 2012 Eff% Sco Reb Ast e484
-.53 Mcgee,Javale .562 17.9 8.7 .8 1.23 Was .531 16.1 12.2 .7 1.55
-.60 Faried,Kenneth .554 15.0 12.5 1.2 1.50 .602 17.2 13.2 1.2 1.74
-1.13 Lawson,Ty .493 15.7 2.9 7.0 1.06 .571 18.1 4.2 6.8 1.45
-1.52 Iguodala,Andre .500 14.1 5.9 4.6 1.04 Phl .527 14.8 6.5 5.2 1.53 Since that time, Lawson has cut his deficit to -.57 (by playing better than he did last year), but the others have continued to lag.
Two players -- Cory Brewer and Wilson Chandler -- have peeked above the +.50 eW mark. But the team's players in sum are still -2.7 eWins from what they'd done last year.
They have no significant rookies; so how can they have improved from SRS 3.16 last year to 5.05 this year? From +2.9 ppg to +4.8
Did they hit a closeout sale on players who are (a) in decline, but (b) still very good ?
They got Iguodala for Afflalo and Harrington
McGee plays 18 mpg -- roughly what they got from him/ Nene last year.
Here's the whole lineup, last year and this year, in eWins and Win Shares:
Code: Select all
.Denver Min eWins/484 WS/48
.Nuggets 2013 2012 2013 eW+ 2012 2013 WS+
Lawson,Ty 2214 1.45 1.31 -.63 .157 .136 -.97
Iguodala,Andre 2133 Phl 1.53 1.08 -1.99 .158 .094 -2.84
Gallinari,Danilo 1932 1.20 1.28 .32 .140 .155 .60
Faried,Kenneth 1851 1.74 1.51 -.88 .212 .169 -1.66
Miller,Andre 1631 1.04 1.03 -.03 .078 .118 1.36
Brewer,Corey 1530 .73 .90 .52 .085 .093 .26
Koufos,Kosta 1423 1.24 1.21 -.08 .163 .180 .50
Mcgee,Javale 1135 Was 1.55 1.28 -.65 .148 .167 .45
Chandler,Wilson 611 .64 1.04 .51 -.021 .114 1.72
Hamilton,Jordan 359 .72 1.11 .28 .055 .099 .33
Mozgov,Timofey 323 .94 .48 -.30 .074 .090 .11
Randolph,Anthony 185 Min 1.00 .61 -.15 .099 .008 -.35
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
My guess would be that Iggy's excellent/possibly-league-leading perimeter D, which doesn't show up in the box score is a big reason for this - especially in a league moving towards perimeter play (increase in 3-pt shooting etc).
Re: Most Improved 2012-13
If great defensive play is reflected in the team's point differential, there should be credit for that. It may go to others as much as it goes to the great defender, but it's gotta be there somewhere.
Denver eWins, being powered by their pt-diff, estimates they'd have 44.7 wins by now, and they have 45. So the credit is there. It just seems striking that their players have mostly declined, yet the team has improved.
It's all in the minutes allocation.George Karl doesn't have to be a genius to give more minutes to Faried, Chandler, Brewer, Koufos, and Gallinari. They're replacing the minutes of departed players, and they're more productive.
Regardless of "how good" he was last year, Iguodala does more than Afflalo did; several bigs are better than Harrington, even with increased minutes.
mpg are total minutes divided by 66 (67 this year).
eW shown are 66/67 of current total.
Expected wins are given by the formula:
xW = eW*2 - G/2
Denver eWins, being powered by their pt-diff, estimates they'd have 44.7 wins by now, and they have 45. So the credit is there. It just seems striking that their players have mostly declined, yet the team has improved.
It's all in the minutes allocation.
Code: Select all
. 2012 mpg e484 eW 2013 mpg e484 eW
Lawson,Ty 32.2 1.45 6.4 Lawson,Ty 34.5 1.31 6.2
Afflalo,Arron 31.6 .88 3.8 Iguodala,Andre 33.3 1.11 5.0
Miller,Andre 27.4 1.04 3.9 Gallinari,Danilo 30.2 1.29 5.3
Harrington,Al 26.6 .97 3.5 Faried,Kenneth 28.6 1.53 6.0
Gallinari,Danilo 20.4 1.20 3.4 Miller,Andre 25.5 1.00 3.5
Brewer,Corey 19.5 .73 1.9 Brewer,Corey 23.9 .89 2.9
Faried,Kenneth 15.7 1.74 3.7 Koufos,Kosta 22.4 1.32 4.0
Hilario,Nene 12.5 1.39 2.4 Mcgee,Javale 17.6 1.27 3.1
Koufos,Kosta 12.0 1.24 2.0 Chandler,Wilson 10.3 1.03 1.4
Fernandez,Rudy 10.8 .64 .9 Hamilton,Jordan 5.5 1.06 .8
Mozgov,Timofey 10.4 .94 1.3 Mozgov,Timofey 5.0 .47 .3
Andersen,Chris 7.3 1.28 1.3 Fournier,Evan 3.2 .22 .1
Mcgee,Javale 6.2 1.33 1.1 Randolph,Anthony 2.8 .58 .2
Hamilton,Jordan 3.9 .72 .4 Miller,Quincy .2 -.27 .0
Chandler,Wilson 3.3 .64 .3 Stone,Julyan .2 -.02 .0
Stone,Julyan 2.7 .78 .3
. total 242.7 1.11 36.6 total 243.0 1.15 38.8
Regardless of "how good" he was last year, Iguodala does more than Afflalo did; several bigs are better than Harrington, even with increased minutes.
mpg are total minutes divided by 66 (67 this year).
eW shown are 66/67 of current total.
Expected wins are given by the formula:
xW = eW*2 - G/2