2013 Playoff Summaries

[Mike G]

Heat sweep Bucks, avg score 100-85

Code: Select all

.Miami   Min   WS/48   WS   PER   eWins  e480    Milwaukee  Min   WS/48   WS   PER  eWins  e480
LeBron   147   .298   .91   27.9   .83   2.70     Ellis     152  -.050  -.16   12.3   .21   .67
Bosh     122   .189   .48   17.1   .36   1.40    Mb a Moute 136   .027   .08    9.4   .03   .12
R Allen  115   .311   .75   24.0   .43   1.78     Jennings  133  -.094  -.26    9.8   .16   .58
Chalmers 114   .157   .37   12.5   .21    .89     Ilyasova  117   .037   .09   15.9   .24   .98
Wade     101   .146   .31   19.5   .39   1.84     Sanders   113   .015   .04   14.5   .23   .96

Battier   99   .069   .14    2.8  -.05   -.23     Dunleavy   91   .226   .43   25.0   .28  1.46
Cole      85   .195   .35   13.4   .13    .75     Redick     69  -.043  -.06    8.3   .03   .21
Haslem    68   .177   .25   16.4   .18   1.28     Udoh       54   .032   .04    9.2  -.01  -.05
Andersen  59   .386   .47   31.5   .29   2.34     Henson     33  -.184  -.13   -0.6   .00   .05
Miller    25  -.016  -.01    1.2   .02    .41     Daniels    33   .068   .05   14.9   .05   .69
Lewis     14  -.073  -.02    3.4   .00    .06 
                       
.totals  949   .202  4.00   17.7  2.79   1.41     .totals   931   .005   .11   12.6  1.22   .63

Spurs sweep Lakers, avg score 104-85

Code: Select all

.Spurs  Min   WS/48   WS   PER   eWins   e480    Lakers  Min   WS/48   WS   PER  eWins  e480
Leonard 134   .240   .67   19.0   .35   1.26      Gasol  146   .009   .03   17.6   .40  1.31
Duncan  129   .230   .62   22.2   .48   1.80      Dwight 126   .020   .05   19.2   .41  1.57
Parker  127   .292   .77   29.3   .70   2.65      Morris 105   .014   .03   13.1   .10   .45
Bonner  102   .267   .57   16.2   .15    .73      Metta   84  -.131  -.23    4.4  -.01  -.03
Green    93   .146   .28   13.2   .18    .92      Clark   82  -.159  -.27    1.4  -.06  -.37

Ginobili 78   .308   .50   28.9   .41   2.55    Goudelock 80  -.031  -.05   12.4   .08   .47
Neal     77   .096   .15   10.5   .08    .52      Jamison 79   .013   .02   10.0   .02   .15
Splitter 71   .087   .13    9.1   .07    .46      Blake   75  -.009  -.01   12.1   .10   .66
Joseph   57   .217   .26   18.9   .17   1.46      Duhon   68  -.064  -.09    5.5  -.03  -.24
Blair    45   .417   .39   30.4   .21   2.26      Nash    61   .013   .02   14.6   .08   .62

Baynes   23   .139   .07   10.5   .02    .33      Hill    31   .084   .05   17.7   .06   .87
De Colo   9   .256   .05   20.5   .02   1.11      Meeks   20  -.145  -.06    1.5  -.02  -.51
Mills     7   .094   .01   12.4   .01    .83      Sacre    4  -.101  -.01    9.9   .01  1.08
McGrady   5  -.238  -.02   -4.8   .00   -.18    
                    
totals  957   .223  4.45   19.5  2.87   1.44      totals 961  -.026  -.52   11.9  1.13   .57

[Mike G]

Warriors 4, Nuggets 2, avg score 107-102

Code: Select all

Nuggets  mpg  eWin  e480   PER   WS/480   WS    Warriors  mpg  eWin  e480    PER  WS/480   WS
Iguodala 41   .72   1.42   20.0   1.41   .71     Thompson 41   .09    .17    8.6    .34   .17
Lawson   39   .70   1.41   20.4   1.28   .63     Curry    40  1.05   2.10   24.6   2.54  1.26
Chandler 34   .17    .40    8.7    .01   .00     Jack     38   .65   1.37   18.8   1.59   .76
Miller   26   .32   1.00   16.3    .37   .12     Barnes   36   .30    .68   14.2   1.39   .62
Brewer   24   .07    .23    7.2   -.51  -.16     Bogut    28   .48   1.40   18.7   1.51   .52

Faried   24   .28    .92   15.6   1.43   .43     Landry   21   .35   1.34   19.8   1.41   .37
Mcgee    19   .17    .75   14.2    .30   .07     Green    17   .34   1.63   21.2   2.42   .51
Koufos   17   .06    .27   10.1    .64   .13     Ezeli     9   .05    .44    9.6  -0.07  -.01
Fournier  9  -.03   -.26    4.0  -1.05  -.12     Lee       5   .06    .93    2.7  -2.06  -.13
Randolph  5   .18   2.83   34.2   3.19   .20    Jefferson  4   .02    .41   10.3   1.12   .05

totals  237  2.63    .89   14.8    .68  2.03     totals  238  3.40   1.14   16.8   1.39  4.12

PER and WS seem to agree David Lee was below worthless in 30 minutes.
And all thought Klay Thompson was weak, yet he played huge minutes.

[EvanZ]

And all thought Klay Thompson was weak, yet he played huge minutes.

Floor spacing and defense.

[Mike G]

Just wanting to freeze-frame these basketball-reference stats. A bit of a data dump, hopefully readable.
First round, Western Conference:

Code: Select all

.   GSW          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          Den          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Klay Thompson    246    8.6   .035   .18      Andre Iguodala   243   20.0   .141   .71
Stephen Curry    239   24.6   .254  1.26      Ty Lawson        236   20.4   .128   .63
Jarrett Jack     228   18.8   .159   .76      Wilson Chandler  205    8.7   .002   .01
Harrison Barnes  213   14.2   .140   .62      Andre Miller     154   16.3   .037   .12
Andrew Bogut     166   18.7   .151   .52      Corey Brewer     146    7.1  -.051  -.16
Carl Landry      126   19.7   .141   .37      Kenneth Faried   145   15.6   .143   .43
Draymond Green   101   21.2   .243   .51      JaVale McGee     112   14.2   .030   .07
Festus Ezeli      55    9.5  -.007  -.01      Kosta Koufos     100   10.0   .064   .13
David Lee         30    2.7  -.206  -.13      Evan Fournier     53    3.9  -.105  -.12
Richard Jefferson 21   10.2   .112   .05      Anthony Randolph  30   34.2   .319   .20
Kent Bazemore      9  -28.1  -.771  -.14      Julyan Stone      13    6.0   .126   .03
Scott Machado      4    7.1  -.104  -.01      Jordan Hamilton    2  -20.2  -.540  -.02
Dwayne Jones       2     .0  -.012   .00                  
total           1440   16.4   .133  3.98        total         1439   14.7   .068  2.05

                              
.   Hou          Min   PER   WS/48   WS           OKC          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
James Harden     243   20.6   .100   .51      Kevin Durant     256   28.9   .263  1.40
Chandler Parsons 238   13.4   .035   .17      Thabo Sefolosha  192   11.2   .107   .43
Omer Asik        208   16.9   .124   .54      Serge Ibaka      188   21.0   .188   .74
Patrick Beverley 200   14.6   .097   .40      Reggie Jackson   180   16.0   .118   .44
Francisco Garcia 164   14.6   .116   .40      Kevin Martin     173   13.3   .074   .27
Carlos Delfino   120   11.7   .054   .14      Derek Fisher     127   14.0   .158   .42
Jeremy Lin        84  - 0.6  -.174  -.30      Kendrick Perkins  93     .5  -.092  -.18
Aaron Brooks      67   11.6  -.070  -.10      Nick Collison     90   26.3   .294   .55
Greg Smith        59   13.1   .072   .09      Russell Westbrook 68   24.8   .133   .19
Terrence Jones    35   10.8  -.015  -.01      DeAndre Liggins   55    4.5   .010   .01
James Anderson    18   -1.7  -.141  -.05      Ronnie Brewer      8    -.6   .012   .00
Donatas Motiejunas 5   54.3   .527   .05      Perry Jones        5   -5.7  -.194  -.02
.                                             Hasheem Thabeet    5   14.4   .018   .00
total           1441   14.3   .061  1.83        total         1440   17.3   .142  4.25
    
                          
.   LAC          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          Mem          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Chris Paul       224   29.3   .269  1.26      Marc Gasol       234   19.7   .186   .91
Matt Barnes      162   18.4   .167   .56      Mike Conley      217   22.9   .208   .94
Jamal Crawford   161   12.5   .021   .07      Tayshaun Prince  213   10.4   .049   .22
Blake Griffin    158   16.2   .045   .15      Zach Randolph    202   23.5   .183   .77
DeAndre Jordan   144    7.3  -.038  -.11      Tony Allen       177   21.7   .199   .73
Caron Butler     136   10.1  -.012  -.03      Quincy Pondexter 127   11.8   .090   .24
Chauncey Billups 115    5.6  -.081  -.19      Jerryd Bayless    97   10.8  -.013  -.03
Lamar Odom       107   10.3  -.030  -.07      Darrell Arthur    75   13.5   .158   .25
Eric Bledsoe      97   19.8   .125   .25      Keyon Dooling     54    3.7   .003   .00
Ronny Turiaf      59   11.1   .081   .10      Ed Davis          29    3.6  -.059  -.04
Ryan Hollins      37    9.7   .036   .03      Austin Daye        6     .0  -.140  -.02
Grant Hill        20    7.3   .026   .01      Tony Wroten        6   36.8   .335   .04
Willie Green      19   22.9   .240   .10      Jon Leuer          3   -6.4  -.013   .00
total           1439   15.2   .071  2.11        total         1440   17.0   .134  4.02
  
                            
.   LAL          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          SAS          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Pau Gasol        146   17.9   .013   .04      Kawhi Leonard    134   18.9   .241   .67
Dwight Howard    126   19.0   .019   .05      Tim Duncan       129   22.1   .229   .62
Darius Morris    105   13.0   .014   .03      Tony Parker      127   29.1   .288   .76
Metta World Peace 84    4.4  -.129  -.23      Matt Bonner      102   16.0   .270   .57
Earl Clark        82    1.0  -.161  -.28      Danny Green       93   13.2   .148   .29
Andrew Goudelock  80   12.3  -.030  -.05      Manu Ginobili     78   28.7   .306   .50
Antawn Jamison    79    9.9   .014   .02      Gary Neal         77   10.5   .096   .15
Steve Blake       75   12.1  -.008  -.01      Tiago Splitter    71    8.9   .088   .13
Chris Duhon       68    5.4  -.061  -.09      Cory Joseph       57   18.8   .217   .26
Steve Nash        61   14.5   .014   .02      DeJuan Blair      45   30.1   .416   .39
Jordan Hill       31   17.7   .086   .06      Aron Baynes       23   10.3   .140   .07
Jodie Meeks       20    1.4  -.142  -.06      Nando De Colo      9   20.3   .253   .05
Robert Sacre       4   10.3  -.097  -.01      Patrick Mills      7   12.3   .096   .01
.                                             Tracy McGrady      5   -4.9  -.236  -.02
total            961   11.8  -.025  -.50        total          957   19.4   .223  4.44

It seems average PER is closer to 16 than to 15; varies widely by series.

In the East, I deleted players with less than 3 mpg. Unfortunately, this messes with team totals.

Code: Select all

.   Atl          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          Ind         Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Devin Harris     225    9.2   .012   .06      Paul George     240   20.4   .220  1.10
Al Horford       218   19.1   .137   .62      George Hill     209   17.4   .181   .79
Jeff Teague      213   10.8  -.011  -.05      David West      202   15.4   .130   .55
Josh Smith       199   17.2   .054   .22     Lance Stephenson 199   10.5   .084   .35
Kyle Korver      177   10.0   .065   .24      Roy Hibbert     193   18.7   .177   .71
Ivan Johnson     108   11.3   .089   .20      D.J. Augustin   100    6.8   .065   .14
Johan Petro      101   10.4   .079   .17      Tyler Hansbrough 96   14.4   .149   .30
Anthony Tolliver  68   15.3   .170   .24      Gerald Green     72   15.2   .150   .23
DeShawn Stevenson 45    9.2   .107   .10      Jeff Pendergraph 59    1.3  -.032  -.04
John Jenkins      24   -5.9  -.205  -.10      Ian Mahinmi      40    6.5   .044   .04
Shelvin Mack      22   32.3   .363   .17      total          1410   14.8   .141  4.15
Mike Scott        20   25.1   .231   .10                  
Dahntay Jones     19     .1  -.091  -.04                  
. total         1439   12.9   .064  1.92                  
     
                         
.   Bos          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          NYK          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Jeff Green       258   14.6   .114   .61      Carmelo Anthony  248   18.9   .111   .57
Paul Pierce      255   10.5  -.030  -.16      Raymond Felton   246   17.8   .160   .82
Kevin Garnett    212   17.2   .146   .64      Tyson Chandler   171   13.6   .187   .67
Brandon Bass     204    9.2   .120   .51      Iman Shumpert    171   17.2   .225   .80
Avery Bradley    191    6.6   .008   .03      J.R. Smith       159   11.5   .048   .16
Jason Terry      189   14.8   .148   .58      Jason Kidd       158    6.4   .067   .22
Jordan Crawford   59    1.4  -.136  -.17      Kenyon Martin    120   13.7   .183   .46
Terrence Williams 48     .4  -.131  -.13      Pablo Prigioni   112   15.6   .196   .46
Courtney Lee      39    6.6   .091   .07      Steve Novak       42   17.3   .261   .23
.  total        1455   11.3   .066  2.00      Chris Copeland    24   -7.2  -.183  -.09
.                                                total        1451   14.6   .142  4.29

                              
.   Brk          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          Chi          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
Deron Williams   292   20.6   .170  1.03      Carlos Boozer    280   16.8   .100   .58
Joe Johnson      271   11.6   .042   .24      Jimmy Butler     269   14.9   .127   .71
Brook Lopez      263   25.4   .191  1.05      Luol Deng        224    8.1  -.059  -.28
Gerald Wallace   243   13.9   .109   .55      Joakim Noah      217   19.5   .083   .38
Reggie Evans     209   12.2   .126   .55      Nate Robinson    210   19.3   .115   .50
C.J. Watson      161   15.3   .128   .43      Kirk Hinrich     162   12.6   .070   .24
Andray Blatche   138   21.8   .185   .53      Marco Belinelli  156   21.0   .183   .59
Kris Humphries    83   13.5   .086   .15      Taj Gibson       115    9.0   .047   .11
MarShon Brooks    40    3.9  -.041  -.03      Nazr Mohammed     80   21.5   .181   .30
Jerry Stackhouse  28   -8.5  -.295  -.17      Marquis Teague    23   16.4   .082   .04
Keith Bogans      23   -2.4  -.064  -.03         total        1736   15.7   .088  3.18
.  total        1751   16.1   .118  4.29                  


.   Mia          Min    PER   WS/48   WS          Mil          Min    PER   WS/48   WS
LeBron James     147   27.7   .295   .90      Monta Ellis      152   12.3  -.050  -.16
Chris Bosh       122   17.0   .189   .48      Luc Mbah a Moute 136    9.3   .029   .08
Ray Allen        115   23.8   .310   .74      Brandon Jennings 133    9.8  -.094  -.26
Mario Chalmers   114   12.4   .159   .38      Ersan Ilyasova   117   15.8   .037   .09
Dwyane Wade      101   19.4   .144   .30      Larry Sanders    113   14.3   .015   .04
Shane Battier     99    2.7   .072   .15      Mike Dunleavy     91   24.8   .226   .43
Norris Cole       85   13.2   .197   .35      J.J. Redick       69    8.2  -.043  -.06
Udonis Haslem     68   16.2   .177   .25      Ekpe Udoh         54    9.1   .035   .04
Chris Andersen    59   31.2   .386   .47      Marquis Daniels   33   14.8   .069   .05
Mike Miller       25    1.2  -.014  -.01      John Henson       33    -.5  -.182  -.13
Rashard Lewis     14    3.4  -.072  -.02         total         931   12.6   .006   .12
.  total         949   17.6   .202  4.00                  

On this side of the league, 2 series in which both teams are below avg PER; and in sum, well below.

[v-zero]

Clearly average PER will be higher than league average as these are most of the best teams in the league.

Spurs playing at a ridiculously high level, probably not sustainable.

[Mike G]

Why wouldn't PER adjust to the level of the competition?
On average, players rebound less, shoot worse, and etc, in the playoffs.
What's happened is that in defensive series -- Atl/Ind, NY/Bos -- PER are universally depressed. In offensive series like GS/Den, they're too high, it seems to me.

[v-zero]

It would only adjust if the coefficients were calculated using only values from the playoffs.

[Mike G]

Relative to their competition in the first round, top 30 in eWins per game.
These are based on games actually played. Appropriate for Wade, who will return; not so much for Westbrook.
e480 is actually eWins per player-minutes per game in a given series. For the Bulls and Nets, this is eW/501.4 (50.14 * 10)

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.231   Kevin Durant   Okl   43  .596   30.6   6.7   5.5   1.1   3.0   .9   2.60
.207   LeBron James   Mia   37  .662   34.8   8.8   8.8   1.0   4.7   .2   2.70
.182 Russel Westbrook Okl   34  .500   26.0   7.0   8.9   3.2   4.3   .0   2.57
.181  Carmelo Anthony NYK   41  .474   30.3   5.4   1.9   1.2   2.3   .1   2.14
.175   Tony Parker    SAS   32  .543   32.0   4.0   9.6   1.4   2.0   .3   2.65

.174   Stephen Curry  GSW   40  .611   24.5   4.2   8.5   2.0   3.0   .2   2.10
.157   Paul George    Ind   40  .544   20.8   9.1   5.2   1.7   2.4   .8   1.89
.155   Chris Paul     LAC   37  .620   25.0   4.5   6.2   1.8   1.5   .0   1.99
.154   Brook Lopez    Brk   38  .538   22.9   8.0   1.4    .8   2.2  3.0   2.06
.142   Mike Conley    Mem   36  .533   18.9   4.2  10.4   1.2   1.7   .5   1.89

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.140   Kevin Garnett  Bos   35  .555   16.4  14.7   4.3    .9   3.3  1.0   1.93
.139   Deron Williams Brk   42  .560   19.6   3.1   7.6    .9   2.7   .5   1.67
.136   James Harden   Hou   41  .534   23.4   6.2   4.1   1.8   4.0   .7   1.62
.131   Zach Randolph  Mem   34  .595   26.2  10.3   2.2    .9   2.7   .2   1.87
.129   Dwyane Wade    Mia   34  .436   16.0   8.7  10.0   3.3   4.3  1.1   1.84

.128   Raymond Felton NYK   41  .500   18.4   4.1   5.6   1.5   1.9   .5   1.52
.123   Marc Gasol     Mem   39  .539   17.1   8.3   3.9    .3    .6  1.5   1.51
.121   Tim Duncan     SAS   32  .547   23.6   9.2   2.2   1.7   1.7  1.1   1.80
.120   Andre Iguodala Den   41  .610   17.4   7.7   4.4   1.8   2.5   .3   1.42
.116   Ty Lawson      Den   39  .510   18.5   3.3   7.0   1.5   2.0   .0   1.41

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.112   Al Horford     Atl   36  .518   18.4   8.5   3.3   1.0   1.5   .8   1.47
.109   Jarrett Jack   GSW   38  .614   20.2   5.3   6.6    .5   3.8   .5   1.37
.108   Josh Smith     Atl   33  .472   20.0   7.9   4.2   2.0   2.9   .6   1.57
.107   Ray Allen      Mia   29  .653   27.1   5.9   3.8   1.2   1.5   .0   1.78
.104   Roy Hibbert    Ind   32  .540   20.1  10.6   2.0    .2   2.7  2.1   1.55

.104   Manu Ginobili  SAS   20  .608   27.4   5.5  10.2   3.0   3.4   .9   2.55
.103   Dwight Howard  LAL   32  .567   22.3  13.4   1.0    .6   4.7  2.3   1.57
.103   Jeff Green     Bos   43  .567   21.4   4.7   2.2    .3   2.7   .6   1.16
.101   Joakim Noah    Chi   31  .447   12.5  12.6   2.4    .7   2.2  3.6   1.64
.100   Paul Pierce    Bos   43  .477   18.7   5.0   5.6    .7   4.6   .4   1.15

In the .099-.100 range: Pau Gasol, George Hill, Carlos Boozer

[Mike G]

Second round summaries. Subtracting 1st-round minutes, Win Shares, and PER-minutes from totals through 2 rounds, I've derived these PER and WS/48. Not sure that WS actually work this way; Boozer had a PER of 17 in his 2nd-round minutes, but no gain in WS from rd 1.

Heat 4, Bulls 1 -- avg score 97-84

Code: Select all

.Chi      Min  eWins  e480   PER   WS/48   WS      Mia    Min  eWins  e480    PER   WS/48   WS
Butler    221   .28   .61   14.2   .079   .36     LeBron  208  1.13   2.61   27.0   .303  1.31
Robinson  194   .28   .69   12.0   .003   .01     Bosh    167   .58   1.67   19.9   .208   .72
Noah      192   .27   .67   14.0   .063   .25     Wade    162   .49   1.46   16.5   .134   .45
Belinelli 169   .05   .13    7.2  -.016  -.06    Chalmers 125   .24    .93   10.9   .101   .26
Boozer    151   .40  1.26   17.1  -.002  -.01     Cole    114   .33   1.38   19.1   .209   .50
Gibson     91   .16   .84   16.7   .076   .14     Battier 109   .00   -.01    6.7   .071   .16
Hamilton   68   .06   .53    7.7  -.067  -.09     Allen   108   .15    .66   14.3   .142   .32
Teague     49  -.05  -.48   -1.2  -.114  -.12     Haslem   91   .18    .97   17.1   .198   .38
Mohammed   34   .06   .91   17.1   .026   .02    Andersen  64   .22   1.68   27.4   .374   .50
.                                                 Miller   19   .05   1.38   14.2   .127   .05
total    1169  1.51   .62   12.4   .021   .52     total  1179  2.24    .91   18.1   .192  4.71

Grizzlies 4, Thunder 1 -- avg score 94-90

Code: Select all

.Mem      Min  eWins  e480    PER   WS/48   WS      OKC     Min   eWins  e480    PER   WS/48   WS
Gasol     209   .85   1.95   22.9   .230  1.00     Durant   229   1.11   2.32   23.6   .158   .75
Conley    207   .71   1.65   18.4   .134   .58     Jackson  188    .43   1.11   15.2   .134   .53
Randolph  198   .67   1.62   18.9   .171   .71     Ibaka    178    .35    .95   13.4   .070   .26
Prince    157  -.01   -.02    3.8  -.030  -.10     Martin   150    .30    .97   15.5   .118   .37
Allen     140   .29    .99   15.1   .146   .43     Fisher   134    .07    .27    8.7   .072   .20
Bayless   113   .19    .82   11.2   .082   .19     Perkins  117   -.14   -.56   -1.7  -.129  -.31
Pondexter 101   .15    .72   12.3   .150   .32    Sefolosha 108    .05    .21    9.5   .064   .15
Arthur     54   .01    .06    5.9   .031   .03     Collison  88    .02    .10    5.9   .014   .02
Dooling    31  -.04   -.62    3.2   .055   .04     Thabeet   21   -.03   -.65   -4.4  -.022  -.01
.                                                  Liggins   13   -.02   -.79   -2.8  -.006   .00
total    1224  2.82   1.11   14.8   .127  3.25      total  1226   2.14    .84   12.5   .076  1.95

Kendrick Perkins' 11 game PER of -0.7 is the lowest ever in a postseason of at least 200 minutes. Jason Collins had held the mark, at 1.8 in 2005.
Al Harrington in 2003 went 103 min. with a -0.8 PER

Perk's WS/48 of -.113 is also worst ever in as many minutes, breaking a 50-yr record; but 28 players have done worse in 100-209 minutes.

[Statman]

Mike, I commend you for the work you put in on this site updating your ratings - I have no idea how you find the time.

I always love seeing your results - especially since I rarely have time to compile my own. Thanks for keeping it up all these years.

[Mike G]

Thank you, Dan.
It's something to do while drinking coffee. I also have a heating pad on the back of my chair, to get my back loose for the day.

I notice b-r.com now has series stats for players, but they're just totals and per-game averages.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... 3_ECS.html

[Mike G]

Here's a sort of preview, sort of late, regarding the Spurs-Grizzlies.
For years now I've tracked players' tendencies to perform better or worse, relative to others, between the regular season and the playoffs -- RS to PO.

A player has a career RS/PO ratio in any statistic. Rebound rate, PER, WS/48, etc. These are just bulk ratios.
A player also has an annual weighted PO/RS. In a good year or a weak year, his playoffs may tend to be better or worse than the season just finished.

Cutting to the chase, here are players from SA and Mem who have playoff experience prior to this year, and they are also at least 3rd-year players.
Showing minutes per game in this year's playoffs (thru 2 rounds), career and annual (minutes weighted, my summary stat) PO/RS; and for this exercise, the average of the two -- shown as p/r3.
The XY column is mpg*(p/r3). It's how many "minutes worth" of production we might expect from these players, in the mpg shown.

Code: Select all

.Spurs  mpg  p/rC  p/rA  p/r3   xy     .Grizz   mpg  p/rC  p/rA   p/r3  xy
Parker   36   .88   .88   .88   32      Gasol    40  1.01  1.03  1.02   41
Duncan   34   .99   .97   .98   33      Conley   39  1.04   .97  1.00   39
Green    31   .93   .95   .94   29      Randolph 36   .96   .95   .96   34
Ginobili 26   .91   .95   .93   24      Prince   34   .97  1.00   .98   33
Splitter 21   .96   .98   .97   20      Allen    29   .74   .71   .73   21
Bonner   15   .65   .67   .66   10      Bayless  19  1.04   .97  1.01   19
Diaw     15  1.09  1.04  1.06   16      Arthur   12   .98   .93   .95   11
Blair     6   .94   .88   .91    5      Dooling   9   .99  1.17  1.08   10
McGrady   2  1.06   .99  1.02    2      .total  218        .960        209
totals  186              .925  172                     					

.925 = 172/186
Kawhi Leonard leads the Spurs in minutes and is not included in this list.
Included Spurs are led by Parker, who has been a big underachiever in most of his playoffs. Duncan and Ginobili were once massive overachievers in playoffs, but both have fallen off in recent years.
The Grizz, with less than half the playoff experience, feature younger players with better overall PO/RS. This indicates about 3 ppg to the Grizz.

But some of these guys have long playoff histories, and others do not. If we regress to the mean, we get a different view.
The mean is about .935 for an average NBA player, for PO/RS, in my summary production stat.
The regression factor is : K = (playoff minutes/15,000)^0.5
A player's regressed po/rs is then: p/r3*K + .935*(1-K)

Code: Select all

.Spurs   Min   mpg  RFac  po/rs  xy      .Grizz   Min  mpg  RFac  po/rs  xy
Parker   5521   36   .61   .90   32      Gasol    778   40   .23   .95   38
Duncan   7412   34   .70   .97   33      Conley   785   39   .23   .95   37
Green     300   31   .14   .94   29     Randolph  967   36   .25   .94   34
Ginobili 4216   26   .53   .93   24      Prince  4387   34   .54   .96   33
Splitter  218   21   .12   .94   20      Allen   1124   29   .27   .88   25
Bonner    536   15   .19   .88   13      Bayless  177   19   .11   .94   18
Diaw     1706   15   .34   .98   15      Arthur   202   12   .12   .94   11
Blair     220    6   .12   .93    6      Dooling  686    9   .21   .97    9
McGrady  1695    2   .34   .96    2      .total  9106  218        .941  205
.total  21824  186        .934   174                     

Duncan's p/r3 of .98 is 70% of his expectation; the norm of .935 is only 30% of it.
The Grizzlies' "advantage" has been cut to a fraction of what

[Mike G]

Stars of the 2nd round, ranked by eWins per game

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.226   LeBron James   Mia   42  .557   26.6   6.8   9.9   1.9   2.3   .2   2.61
.221   Kevin Durant   Okl   46  .520   26.0   8.6   5.3   1.0   3.5  1.0   2.32
.176  Carmelo Anthony NYK   39  .506   30.0   7.8   1.2    .8   2.3   .2   2.18
.170   Marc Gasol     Mem   42  .548   20.8   7.6   2.2   1.4   1.2  2.4   1.95
.142   Mike Conley    Mem   41  .466   17.0   5.9   6.6   1.9   1.9   .2   1.65

.134   Tony Parker    SAS   39  .496   22.7   4.2   6.6    .6   2.3   .2   1.75
.133   Zach Randolph  Mem   40  .500   19.2  10.3   2.2    .6   1.5   .4   1.62
.122   Tim Duncan     SAS   36  .483   20.1  10.1   2.1    .5   1.9  1.4   1.72
.116   Chris Bosh     Mia   33  .548   17.5  10.5   3.3    .9   1.3  2.4   1.67
.111   Roy Hibbert    Ind   38  .526   14.7  10.7   1.7    .2   1.8  3.0   1.42

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.106   Stephen Curry  GSW   43  .502   19.5   2.8   5.9   1.0   2.8   .1   1.25
.102   Paul George    Ind   43  .481   17.5   6.3   4.5   1.4   3.8   .3   1.14
.098   Dwyane Wade    Mia   32  .525   17.6   4.3   8.4   1.4   2.5   .7   1.46
.095   David West     Ind   36  .512   16.5   8.4   2.9    .8   2.3   .7   1.26
.093   Manu Ginobili  SAS   30  .442   15.2   5.7   8.7   2.0   3.0   .4   1.59

.087   Reggie Jackson Okl   38  .570   16.2   6.2   3.6    .4   1.7   .6   1.11
.085 Lance Stephenson Ind   35  .504   13.2   9.1   2.6   1.0   1.0   .0   1.16
.081   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   41  .595   14.9   7.9   1.5   1.3   1.3   .3   1.01
.079   Carlos Boozer  Chi   30  .455   17.8  12.3   1.0   1.5   2.7   .2   1.26
.075   Carl Landry    GSW   20  .570   22.9  11.4   3.4    .6   2.7   .0   1.89

These are eWins per game that the team has played.
Under e480 are eWins per whatever player-minutes were averaged in games, depending on overtimes.

Leaders of the first two rounds combined, among the 8 teams which won in round 1 --

Code: Select all

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.227   Kevin Durant   Okl   44  .561   28.4   7.6   5.4   1.1   3.2   .9   2.47
.218   LeBron James   Mia   39  .600   30.0   7.6   9.4   1.5   3.3   .2   2.65
.179  Carmelo Anthony NYK   40  .489   30.1   6.6   1.6   1.0   2.3   .2   2.16
.151   Tony Parker    SAS   36  .514   26.0   4.1   7.6    .9   2.2   .2   2.06
.144   Marc Gasol     Mem   40  .543   18.8   8.0   3.1    .8    .9  2.0   1.72

.142   Mike Conley    Mem   39  .500   18.0   5.0   8.5   1.5   1.8   .3   1.77
.140   Stephen Curry  GSW   41  .553   22.0   3.5   7.2   1.5   2.9   .1   1.66
.132   Zach Randolph  Mem   36  .551   22.8  10.3   2.2    .7   2.1   .3   1.74
.130   Paul George    Ind   42  .510   19.1   7.6   4.8   1.5   3.1   .5   1.50
.122   Tim Duncan     SAS   34  .505   21.4   9.8   2.2   1.0   1.8  1.3   1.75

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.107   Roy Hibbert    Ind   35  .533   17.2  10.6   1.9    .2   2.2  2.6   1.48
.104   Chris Bosh     Mia   32  .564   18.1  10.7   2.6    .8   1.6  2.3   1.56
.099   Carlos Boozer  Chi   36  .517   17.2  11.2   1.4    .9   2.5   .1   1.25
.098   Dwyane Wade    Mia   33  .486   17.0   6.0   9.0   2.1   3.2   .8   1.60
.097   Manu Ginobili  SAS   26  .492   18.9   5.7   9.2   2.3   3.1   .5   1.88

.093   Raymond Felton NYK   38  .486   15.5   3.7   4.9   1.6   1.6   .4   1.19
.092   David West     Ind   35  .524   18.8   7.6   2.6    .8   2.4   .7   1.27
.084   Jarrett Jack   GSW   36  .579   19.3   4.7   4.7    .9   3.2   .3   1.16
.084   Kawhi Leonard  SAS   38  .598   15.3   8.1   1.6   1.5   1.1   .5   1.10
.083   George Hill    Ind   37  .538   18.3   4.4   4.9   1.0   2.3   .3   1.18

eW/G    per36 rates   tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.083   Serge Ibaka    Okl   33  .480   13.0   9.3    .9    .0    .7  3.3   1.20
.082   Joakim Noah    Chi   34  .466   11.0  11.7   2.3    .9   2.1  2.2   1.18
.080   Tony Allen     Mem   29  .521   15.4   8.3   2.5   2.9   1.6   .5   1.32
.078   Reggie Jackson Okl   33  .573   17.0   5.5   4.3    .5   2.1   .6   1.12
.074 Lance Stephenson Ind   34  .502   11.6   9.2   4.2   1.2   1.9   .1   1.05

.069   Andrew Bogut   GSW   27  .548   10.0  15.3   2.5    .7   2.5  2.0   1.24
.067   Carl Landry    GSW   21  .563   22.4   9.3   2.4   1.0   2.7   .3   1.61
.066   Nate Robinson  Chi   34  .531   18.0   3.3   4.5   1.1   2.8   .2    .97
.064   Ray Allen      Mia   25  .621   22.3   4.6   2.9   1.1   1.7   .3   1.24
.063   Iman Shumpert  NYK   28  .523   14.3   8.8   1.9   1.4   1.5   .3   1.09

[Mike G]

NBA playoffs can be seen live here, for free:

http://www.nba.com/tntovertime2/

The camera work is shaky, and the feed is jerky. Just don't watch too closely, to avoid a headache.
You get the audio feed from TNT, but no replays.

[Mike G]

Memphis finished 8-7 in the postseason, with a total of 7.73 eWins

Code: Select all

eWins   Grizzlies   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
1.93   Marc Gasol    41  .516   16.9   8.4   3.2   3.2   .8   1.1  2.0   1.53
1.82   Mike Conley   38  .486   17.2   4.9   7.7   2.2  1.6   2.2   .3   1.53
1.60   Zach Randolph 37  .498   18.6  10.8   1.8   3.4   .7   2.0   .5   1.39
1.06   Tony Allen    28  .500   14.2   8.7   2.6   4.1  2.6   1.6   .4   1.22
0.48  Jerryd Bayless 21  .463   15.2   3.5   3.8   3.8   .8   1.7   .5    .73

.47 Quincy Pondexter 24  .616   15.2   4.1   1.1   3.0  1.1    .9   .2    .64
.21  Tayshaun Prince 30  .396    7.1   5.1   2.8   1.4   .6    .8   .4    .22
.17   Darrell Arthur 12  .504   11.5   8.2   1.2   6.9   .4   1.3   .7    .48
.02   Ed Davis        3  .464    9.0   8.9    .0   4.7   .0   1.4   .6    .21
-.07   Keyon Dooling  8  .500    7.9   1.7   1.5   4.2   .3    .9   .0   -.29

San Antonio going into the Finals is 12-2, with 8.88 total eWins

Code: Select all

eWins   Spurs       mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk   e484
2.30   Tony Parker   37  .532   27.4   3.9   8.9   1.3   1.2   2.7   .1   2.21
1.72   Tim Duncan    34  .501   20.7  10.0   2.9   2.8    .9   2.0  1.8   1.78
1.30   Manu Ginobili 26  .506   18.4   6.1   8.7   2.8   1.8   3.2   .6   1.79
1.16   Kawhi Leonard 37  .619   15.2   8.0   1.3   1.7   1.6   1.1   .6   1.11
0.75   Danny Green   30  .574   12.9   5.2   2.9   2.3   1.3   1.0  1.0    .89

.56   Tiago Splitter 20  .617   13.9   5.9   3.2   4.6   1.3   2.0  1.4   1.00
.30   Dejuan Blair    4  .692   29.1   9.2   4.0   7.1   1.7    .6   .5   2.46
.24   Cory Joseph    11  .485   11.5   5.7   4.9   3.4    .9   1.1   .4    .80
.20   Matt Bonner    17  .648   12.1   4.9    .9   4.8    .6    .3   .7    .43
.13   Boris Diaw     13  .500    8.5   4.8   4.1   3.8    .8   1.6   .4    .36
.11   Gary Neal      16  .464   10.8   4.4   1.7   3.6    .5    .8   .2    .25