2013 E. Conf. finals: Heat vs Pacers

[Mike G]

Preview: Lineup productions through the first 2 rounds of playoffs.

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eW/G   .Pacers       pos  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast    PF   Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.130   Paul George    SF  42  .510   19.1   7.6   4.8   3.3   1.5   3.1   .5   1.50
.107   Roy Hibbert     C  35  .533   17.2  10.6   1.9   4.0    .2   2.2  2.6   1.48
.092   David West     PF  35  .524   18.8   7.6   2.6   2.8    .8   2.4   .7   1.27
.083   George Hill    PG  34  .538   18.3   4.4   4.9   1.7   1.0   2.3   .3   1.18
.074 Lance Stephenson SG  34  .502   11.6   9.2   4.2   2.0   1.2   1.9   .1   1.05

.024   D.J. Augustin  PG  18  .551   16.3   2.2   1.7   2.7   1.1   1.1   .0    .64
.016   Gerald Green   SF   8  .567   22.2   4.1   1.3   2.3    .0   1.9   .4   1.00
.007 Tyler Hansbrough PF  14  .445   10.5   8.6    .9   6.1   1.0   2.7   .0    .23
.006   Ian Mahinmi     C   8  .409    6.9  11.7    .5   6.3    .0   2.7  3.0    .38
.005   Sam Young      SG   5  .400    8.5   9.5   2.1   4.8    .6   1.8   .6    .45

.001  Orlando Johnson SG   2  .333   13.6   3.7    .0    .0    .0   1.8   .0    .19
.000 Jeff Pendergraph PF   6  .318    5.6   9.9    .6   7.3    .0   1.6   .5   -.02
-.001  Ben Hansbrough PG   1  .000     .0   4.7   7.9   2.2    .0   4.6  2.2   -.26
.545                     240                           
                                    
eW/G   .Heat         pos  Min  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   PF    Stl   TO   Blk   e480
.218   LeBron James   PF  39  .600   30.0   7.6   9.4   1.5   1.5   3.3   .2   2.65
.104   Chris Bosh      C  32  .564   18.1  10.7   2.6   3.6    .8   1.6  2.3   1.56
.098   Dwyane Wade    SG  29  .486   17.0   6.0   9.0   2.2   2.1   3.2   .8   1.60
.064   Ray Allen      SG  25  .621   22.3   4.6   2.9   2.0   1.1   1.7   .3   1.24
.057   Chris Andersen  C  14  .768   26.0  10.4   1.2   5.3    .6   1.7  3.0   1.99

.051   Norris Cole    PG  22  .725   20.0   4.3   3.9   3.7   1.2   2.1   .0   1.11
.050   Mario Chalmers PG  27  .488   11.2   4.0   8.4   4.0   1.5   2.0   .1    .91
.040   Udonis Haslem  PF  18  .622   16.7   9.2   1.0   4.7   2.1   1.9   .7   1.10
.008   Mike Miller    SF   5  .353    9.0   6.1   8.2   3.9    .0    .8   .0    .83
.007   Rashard Lewis  PF   3  .500   16.2   5.7   1.9   2.6   2.6   2.6  2.5   1.16

.000   Joel Anthony    C   2  .500    7.5  11.0    .0   7.8   2.0   5.9  2.0    .01
-.001  James Jones    SF   2  .750    9.3   4.9    .0   2.2    .0   2.2   .0   -.19
-.006  Shane Battier  SF  23  .435    7.2   3.4   1.2   4.3    .5    .5   .3   -.12
.691                     240                           

Pacers' sum to .545 eWins/G, Heat to .691. They can't win 1.236 games per game; so dividing both by that number, it's Mia .56 - .44 Ind
The equivalent Pythagorean ratio is .62 to .38; about 3 ppg to Miami; most likely resulting in a 4-2 Heat series.

[Mike G]

Side by side, some summary stats.

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.Indiana   Min  WS/G   WS/48   PER   e480  eW/G     .Miami   mpg  WS/G  WS/48   PER   e480  eW/G
George     498  .120   .139   17.1   1.50  .130     LeBron   355  .246  .299   27.3   2.65  .218
West       419  .094   .129   16.2   1.27  .092     Bosh     289  .134  .200   18.8   1.56  .104
Hibbert    418  .130   .179   19.4   1.48  .107     Wade     263  .083  .137   17.6   1.60  .098
Stephenson 409  .078   .110   12.9   1.05  .074     Chalmers 239  .071  .128   11.7    .91  .050
Hill       406  .098   .139   15.7   1.18  .083     Allen    223  .118  .228   19.2   1.24  .064
Augustin   218  .051   .134   11.6    .64  .024     Battier  208  .035  .072    4.8   -.12 -.006
Hansbrough 170  .016   .055    9.1    .23  .007     Cole     199  .094  .203   16.6   1.11  .051
Mahinmi     92  .005   .029    8.2    .38  .006     Haslem   159  .070  .189   16.7   1.10  .040
Green       91  .018   .114   15.6   1.00  .016    Andersen  123  .108  .378   29.2   1.99  .057
Pendergraph 66 -.006  -.054     .4   -.02  .000     Miller    44  .004  .044    6.9    .83  .008
Young       59  .006   .056    7.8    .45  .005     Lewis     26  .004  .074   15.2   1.16  .007
Johnson     19 -.004  -.121     .1    .19  .001     Anthony   17 -.003 -.071     .1    .01  .000
BHansbrough 15 -.008  -.304   -6.3   -.26 -.001     Jones     15  .001  .037    3.9   -.19 -.001
totals          .597   .597   14.5   5.45  .545     .totals       .964  .964   17.7   6.91  .691

[Mike G]

Heat 1, Pacers 0
score: 103-102
Pyth Wins: .53 - .47 , eWins .52 - .48
Overtime game -- 530 player minutes per win.

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eWins   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.18   Lebron James   Mia   47  .545   25.4   9.2   9.3    .0   3.1  2.3   2.02
.17   Chris Andersen Mia   19  1.00   50.7  10.9    .0   1.8   1.8  5.4   4.62
.12   Dwyane Wade    Mia   41  .559   19.1   6.4   5.3   2.7   2.7   .9   1.54
.11   Paul George    Ind   47  .628   25.9   3.7   4.2    .0   4.6   .0   1.21
.08   David West     Ind   41  .619   28.2   5.3   1.0    .0   3.5   .0   1.08

.07   D.J. Augustin  Ind   14  .800   28.6    .0   2.7    .0    .0   .0   2.76
.07   Chris Bosh     Mia   36  .607   19.6   2.4   1.2    .0   1.0  2.0   1.06
.07   George Hill    Ind   45  .263    2.4   3.8   7.3   4.0   2.4   .0    .78
.06   Roy Hibbert    Ind   41  .500   16.2   9.6   1.1    .0   1.8  1.8    .83
.06 Lance Stephenson Ind   43  .292    3.8  12.1   3.3   2.5   3.4   .0    .71

eWins   per36 rates  tm   Min   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e530
.06   Mario Chalmers Mia   21  .714   24.9   2.1   4.2   1.8   3.6   .0   1.40
.05 Tyler Hansbrough Ind   12  .625   34.2  20.4    .0   2.8   2.8   .0   2.14
.03   Udonis Haslem  Mia   21  .167    1.5  15.0   4.5   3.6   3.6   .0    .85
.00   Ian Mahinmi    Ind   11  .000     .0  11.1    .0    .0    .0   .0    .01

-.02  Norris Cole    Mia   28  .250    1.5   6.0   6.1   1.2   6.2   .0   -.30
-.02  Sam Young      Ind   10  .000     .0    .0    .0   3.4    .0   .0   -.88
-.04  Ray Allen      Mia   22  .222    3.0   3.8    .0    .0   1.6   .0   -.85
-.06  Shane Battier  Mia   31  .250    1.7   1.4    .0   1.1   1.1   .0  -1.00

Shooting: Mia .523 - .515 Ind
Rebounds (per48): Ind 38.9 - 34.4 Mia
Turnovers: 20-20

[Mike G]

Pacers 1, Heat 1
Avg score: Ind 99.5 - 98.0 Mia
Pyth Wins: 1.10 - .90 , eWins 1.05 - .95

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eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.49   Lebron James   Mia   46  .647   32.8   8.5   5.4   1.2   3.5  1.6   2.69
.28   Roy Hibbert    Ind   40  .615   26.1  10.7   1.1    .0   2.7   .9   1.75
.24   Paul George    Ind   43  .628   25.6   3.1   5.5    .0   3.4   .0   1.42
.24   Chris Andersen Mia   17  1.00   40.3  10.0    .0   1.0   1.0  4.2   3.69
.19   Dwyane Wade    Mia   41  .508   15.1   6.4   5.0   1.3   2.2   .9   1.17

.17   David West     Ind   41  .557   19.3   6.6   2.1    .4   2.7   .4   1.05
.17   George Hill    Ind   43  .548   10.6   4.7   5.2   3.4   2.1   .0    .98
.13 Lance Stephenson Ind   41  .354    5.9  11.1   4.7   2.2   2.2   .0    .83
.12   Chris Bosh     Mia   37  .557   18.0   4.2   1.1    .5   1.5  1.0    .83
.07 Tyler Hansbrough Ind   10  .625   19.7  17.0    .0   1.7   1.7   .0   1.83

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e505
.05   Mario Chalmers Mia   25  .571   13.5   1.8   5.7    .7   2.9   .0    .51
.02   D.J. Augustin  Ind   15  .625   13.2   2.9   1.4    .0    .0   .0    .43
.01   Udonis Haslem  Mia   17  .188    1.5  13.0   2.5   2.2   3.3   .0    .19

-.00  Ian Mahinmi    Ind   10  .333    2.3   8.5    .0    .0   1.7  3.4   -.01
-.03  Sam Young      Ind   10  .125     .5   4.2    .0   1.7   1.7   .0   -.87
-.04  Ray Allen      Mia   22  .313    5.1   4.7    .0    .0   1.6   .0   -.51
-.06  Shane Battier  Mia   23  .167     .9   3.7    .0    .8    .8   .8   -.70
-.07  Norris Cole    Mia   24  .250    2.2   3.6   3.4    .7   4.5   .0   -.79

Shooting: Ind .550 - .531 Mia
Rebounds: Ind 39.0 - 33.3 Mia
Turnovers: Ind 16.5 - 17.0 Mia

[Mike G]

Heat 2, Pacers 1
Avg score: Mia 103.3 - 98.3 Ind
Pyth wins: 1.98 - 1.02 , eWins: 1.74 - 1.26

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eWins   per36 rates  Tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e497
.64   Lebron James   Mia   44  .620   28.5   7.0   5.5    .8   2.4  1.1   2.37
.44   Roy Hibbert    Ind   39  .581   23.0  13.1   1.8    .0   2.5  1.2   1.88
.40   Chris Andersen Mia   18  .970   37.0  12.9    .0    .6    .6  3.9   3.64
.36   Dwyane Wade    Mia   39  .531   16.3   5.8   7.5   1.2   2.2  1.2   1.53
.23   David West     Ind   39  .545   18.8   7.9   1.9    .3   2.5   .3    .98

.22   Paul George    Ind   42  .585   19.4   2.7   6.5    .0   3.7   .0    .86
.20   Chris Bosh     Mia   32  .598   20.6   4.4   1.0    .8   1.1   .8   1.05
.19   George Hill    Ind   41  .609   14.0   3.4   4.2   2.3   1.8   .0    .77
.15   Mario Chalmers Mia   26  .638   17.6   1.7   6.7    .9   1.9   .0    .97
.13   Udonis Haslem  Mia   19  .571   14.5  13.1   2.6   1.3   2.6   .0   1.09

.07 Tyler Hansbrough Ind   10  .438   12.8  17.7    .0   1.2   1.2   .0   1.16
.07 Lance Stephenson Ind   39  .343    4.7   7.7   4.2   1.9   1.6   .0    .29
.04   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    9  .600    8.2  12.1    .0    .0   1.3  2.6    .63
.02   D.J. Augustin  Ind   14  .722   13.4   2.0   1.0    .0    .0   .0    .19

-.03  Sam Young      Ind    9  .300    2.2   7.8    .0   1.3   1.3   .0   -.61
-.04  Ray Allen      Mia   21  .364    6.3   4.0   1.6    .6   1.7   .6   -.31
-.07  Shane Battier  Mia   22  .333    3.2   3.8    .7    .5    .5   .5   -.54
-.07  Norris Cole    Mia   21  .313    3.5   3.4   3.9   1.7   3.5   .0   -.58

Shooting: Mia .563 - .534 Ind
Rebounds: Ind 40.9 - 34.1 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 13.0 - 14.3 Ind

[Mike G]

Heat 2, Pacers 2
Avg Score: Mia 100.5 - 98.5 Ind
Pyth Wins: 2.27 - 1.73 , eWins: 2.13 - 1.87

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eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e493
.78   Lebron James   Mia   44  .609   26.7   6.7   5.1   .8   2.2  1.4   2.16
.60   Roy Hibbert    Ind   39  .595   23.8  12.7   1.7   .2   2.3   .9   1.88
.42   Dwyane Wade    Mia   39  .508   15.6   5.3   7.2  1.2   2.4  1.2   1.34
.36   Chris Andersen Mia   19  .970   26.7  10.5    .0   .5    .5  2.8   2.39
.34   George Hill    Ind   41  .581   15.0   3.8   5.0  1.8   1.6   .2   1.04

.33   David West     Ind   39  .536   17.5   9.0   2.0   .2   2.1   .5   1.05
.27   Paul George    Ind   40  .565   18.2   4.1   6.2   .0   4.1   .5    .84
.27   Mario Chalmers Mia   27  .602   20.4   2.5   5.0  1.4   1.4   .0   1.25
.22   Chris Bosh     Mia   32  .571   17.5   4.5   1.1   .6    .9   .9    .85
.18   Udonis Haslem  Mia   19  .578   14.7  11.5   1.9  2.1   2.1   .0   1.17

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e493
.16 Lance Stephenson Ind   39  .431    8.3   6.9   3.8  1.4   1.4   .0    .50
.08 Tyler Hansbrough Ind   10  .472   12.6  12.5   1.1   .8    .8   .0    .96
.04   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    9  .571    8.2  10.2    .0   .0   1.0  3.0    .61
.04   Sam Young      Ind   11  .500    6.8  10.3    .0  2.5    .8   .0    .43
.00   Ray Allen      Mia   24  .380    7.2   5.7   1.4   .7   1.5   .4    .00

-.01  D.J. Augustin  Ind   15  .722    9.9   1.3   2.8   .0   1.1   .0   -.08
-.05  Norris Cole    Mia   19  .368    4.6   3.8   3.5  1.4   2.8   .0   -.31
-.07  Shane Battier  Mia   21  .368    3.9   3.9    .5   .4    .4   .4   -.43

Shooting: Mia .549 - .543 Ind
Rebounds: Ind 42.9 - 33.1 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 11.3 - 13.8 Ind

With almost identical shooting%, Miami with a 2.5 TO advantage, Indiana getting 10 more rebounds per game -- how can the Pacers not be winning this series?
Is Miami getting a lot more team rebounds and/or fewer team turnovers?

[xkonk]

With almost identical shooting%, Miami with a 2.5 TO advantage, Indiana getting 10 more rebounds per game -- how can the Pacers not be winning this series?
Is Miami getting a lot more team rebounds and/or fewer team turnovers?

That's even leaving out the giant advantage Indiana has at the foul line - across four games, they have 24 more points on 35 more attempts.

I think the issue is in the aggregation. In game 1, Miami shot a little better and kept rebounds close, which made up for Indiana's free throw advantage (TO were tied). In game 2, Indiana won all four factors but none by a huge margin. In game 3, Miami was pounded on the boards and again lost the free throw battle but they shot much, much better than Indiana and turned the ball over far less. Last night the game 3 pattern held but Indiana won the eFG battle.

Overall, it seems obvious that Indiana will get to the line more and get more rebounds; Miami will probably turn the ball over less. Any given game will come down to if Miami shoots well enough (or Indiana poorly enough) to make up the difference. Twice they have and twice they haven't.

[Mike G]

Well, FT are a high % shot, and that is accounted for in the shooting% shown : Eff% = Pts/(FGA*2 + FTA). Rebounds-minus-turnovers (differential) should give a team an advantage in scoring attempts; whether from the foul line, the 3-pt line, or elsewhere.

Pts = attempts * Eff% * 2

[xkonk]

Ah, I skimmed over and thought it was eFG, not Eff. Although since you mention it, that implies that the Heat are doing much better from the floor than Indiana is if they can offset 8 points a game from the line. I think when I looked at the first four games, Indiana's rebound advantage was around 4 offensive and 6 defensive per game. If Indiana is getting 4 more possessions/opportunities on the boards and Miami is getting 2.5 via turnovers, that isn't a huge difference overall.

In tonight's game, Miami again won the turnover battle and Indiana again won the free throw battle, but Miami kept the rebound battle pretty much even (in terms of raw numbers) and shot better. They got the win.

[Mike G]

Heat 3, Pacers 2
Avg score 98.4 - 94.6
Pyth Wins: 3.14 - 1.86, eWins: 2.82 - 2.18

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eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e490
1.07  Lebron James   Mia   44  .592   27.5   6.9   5.4  1.0   2.3  1.3   2.37
.78   Roy Hibbert    Ind   39  .604   24.5  12.0   1.3   .2   2.4  1.1   1.93
.50   Paul George    Ind   41  .598   20.9   5.8   5.8   .2   4.1   .4   1.20
.48   Chris Andersen Mia   18  .973   27.7  10.2    .0   .8    .4  3.0   2.57
.47   Dwyane Wade    Mia   39  .500   14.2   5.5   6.7  1.1   2.4  1.1   1.18

.44   David West     Ind   39  .523   16.8   9.4   1.6   .4   1.7   .6   1.10
.34   Mario Chalmers Mia   28  .579   19.0   2.2   5.9  1.3   1.3   .0   1.18
.32   Udonis Haslem  Mia   20  .667   20.9   9.5   1.4  1.5   1.5   .4   1.55
.27   George Hill    Ind   40  .544   11.9   3.3   4.9  2.0   1.8   .2    .65
.26   Chris Bosh     Mia   32  .563   16.1   4.8   1.2   .7    .7   .7    .78

eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e490
.12 Lance Stephenson Ind   37  .414    7.4   6.9   3.7  1.4   1.8   .2    .31
.10 Tyler Hansbrough Ind   10  .455   12.4  13.2    .9   .7    .7   .0    .98
.06   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    9  .500    8.4  10.8    .0   .0    .8  3.2    .69
-.00  Sam Young      Ind   12  .550    6.9   8.6    .0  1.8   1.8   .0   -.03

-.01  Ray Allen      Mia   23  .400    8.0   6.1   1.2   .6   1.8   .3   -.04
-.03  Norris Cole    Mia   18  .409    5.5   3.6   4.0  1.2   2.3   .4   -.15
-.09  D.J. Augustin  Ind   16  .591    6.6   1.1   2.2   .0   1.3   .0   -.58
-.12  Shane Battier  Mia   18  .333    3.3   3.6    .5   .4    .8   .8   -.61

Shooting: Mia .550 - .539 Ind
Rebounds: Ind 40.9 - 32.9 Mia
Turnovers: Mia 11.0 - 14.4 Ind

[Mike G]

Heat 3, Pacers 3
Avg score: Mia 94.8 - 94.0 Ind
Pyth Wins: 3.18 - 2.82, eWins: 3.09 - 2.91

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eWins   per36 rates  tm   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  Stl   TO   Blk   e488
1.26  Lebron James   Mia   44  .590   27.9   6.7   5.3  1.1   2.5  1.2   2.35
.92   Roy Hibbert    Ind   40  .593   24.5  11.7   1.1   .2   2.3  1.1   1.87
.73   Paul George    Ind   41  .611   23.0   6.1   5.7   .6   4.2   .3   1.44
.60   David West     Ind   39  .500   16.0  10.3   2.2   .5   1.7   .8   1.25
.48   Dwyane Wade    Mia   38  .481   13.6   4.9   5.6  1.3   2.4  1.1   1.03

.44   Chris Andersen Mia   15  .973   24.6   9.8    .0   .8    .4  3.0   2.33
.39   George Hill    Ind   40  .557   13.0   3.0   5.2  1.7   1.8   .1    .78
.37   Mario Chalmers Mia   27  .576   19.1   2.3   4.9  1.4   1.6   .0   1.12
.26   Udonis Haslem  Mia   20  .627   16.6   8.6   1.1  1.6   1.6   .3   1.09
.20   Chris Bosh     Mia   32  .523   13.7   4.8    .9   .6   1.2   .8    .51

.18 Lance Stephenson Ind   38  .413    7.1   7.9   3.8  1.3   2.1   .2    .39
.11 Tyler Hansbrough Ind   10  .442   11.5  12.6    .7   .6    .6   .0    .91
.03   Ian Mahinmi    Ind    8  .500    7.5   9.7    .0   .0   2.0  2.7    .33
.02   Sam Young      Ind   11  .583    8.3   8.0    .0  1.6   1.6   .0    .17
.02   Ray Allen      Mia   23  .388    8.2   5.5   1.3  1.0   1.5   .3    .07

.01   Norris Cole    Mia   20  .466    7.6   3.3   3.6   .9   1.8   .3    .05
.01   Joel Anthony   Mia    6  .167     .7   9.7    .0   .9    .0  2.8    .16
-.09  D.J. Augustin  Ind   15  .625    7.1    .9   1.9   .0   1.2   .0   -.48
-.11  Shane Battier  Mia   16  .333    3.4   3.6    .4   .4    .7   .7   -.55

Shooting: Ind .540 - .538 Mia
Rebounds: Ind 42.9 - 32.9 Mia
Turnovers: 11.3 Mia - 15.0 Ind

[Guy]

Miami with a 2.5 TO advantage, Indiana getting 10 more rebounds per game -- how can the Pacers not be winning this series?

Using rebound differential will exaggerate Indiana's advantage, I think. Each TO and each rebound is worth c. 1 point, but each rebound yields an increase of 2 in the rebound differential. So if I'm doing the math right, Miami's current TO advantage (3.7) is nearly as valuable as Ind's +10 on rebounds.

[DSMok1]

Also, expected points off live-ball turnovers is significantly greater than expected points off of defensive rebounds. See NBAWOWY (Prior events) or this post: http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.p ... 368#p12368

[colts18]

Also, expected points off live-ball turnovers is significantly greater than expected points off of defensive rebounds. See NBAWOWY (Prior events) or this post: http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.p ... 368#p12368

I must have missed it but where did show the expected points off of an offensive rebound?

[Mike G]

Additional points off turnovers should be contained in shooting%, and more directly, in points scored.
I'm already counting the event twice, in a sense.

Already figured a 2-rebound advantage is = 1 rebound this way rather than that way. But the ratio was 4:1 (now not quite 3:1)

If Miami hits the first of 2 FT and misses the 2nd, the Pacers get a rebound.
If Miami misses the first and hits the 2nd, there's no rebound. But each sequence has the same value for both teams.
Is Miami tending to miss their 2nd FT? While Indiana's misses have mostly been the 1st one?