(Note: revised after I recognized I had gone too far, too quickly)
I checked the correlation of team mid-range shot frequency (as % of all shots) and other stats for this regular season:
Age -0.13
Proj Team Wins -0.35
ORtg -0.57
DRtg -0.06
Pace -0.42
eFG% -0.58
TOV% -0.14
ORB% 0.09
FT/FGA -0.34
Age is simple team roster average and thus not properly weighted for playing time but this could be re-run if anyone has a quick and accurate minutes weighted average team age dataset handy. [see correction below]
Projected team wins, offensive rating, eFG% and FT/FGA all decline on average as the % of team shots taken from mid-range shot frequency increases and vice versa and some of the correlations are what I would call fairly strong (at least strong enough to be worth being aware of). Pace declines with more mid-range shots as well. TOV% is very modestly negatively correlated. Defensive rating and OR% get slightly "better" as mid-range shot frequency increases.
I need to compare this information to several other correlations (to inside shots and 3 point shots) but this much seems like an overall at least mild argument for less rather than more frequency of team mid-range shots. Of the 18-20 teams I know enough about to call (generously perhaps) "analytics"-equipped, about two thirds have higher than league average team mid-range shot frequency. Maybe they have a justifiable rationale for this based on other data and analysis that I am not currently aware of. I will look into it more.
Correlation of team mid-range shot frequency and other stats
Re: Correlation of team mid-range shot frequency and other s
b-r.com has teams' Age in the miscellaneous stats table, on season summary page.
Re: Correlation of team mid-range shot frequency and other s
That is the source of the data I used, but I assumed it was simple age unweighted by minutes played, as that is what I commonly see around. I just checked it for two teams and it appears in fact to be the minutes weighted age. Good to get that clarified.Mike G wrote:b-r.com has teams' Age in the miscellaneous stats table, on season summary page.
Re: Correlation of team mid-range shot frequency and other s
Inside shots are fairly modestly correlated (almost .4) with pace and offensive rebounding (compared to the correlations of the other stats considered). The rest are very low.
The 3 pt shooting correlations are pretty close to the mirror image of the mid-range correlations.
The string of correlations for inside shots are generally much milder than for these other two distances. The mid-range - 3 pt decision making of teams is only one of many factors affecting these roll-up stats but the general strategic lesson seems to favor more 3 point shots and less mid-rangers. Maybe there is a supportable rationale for the about 2/3rds of teams with analytic staff (to my knowledge) which have mid-range frequencies above the league average based on other / perhaps deeper analysis (such as what works against strong team playoff defense?). I currently wonder about the wisdom of this basic pattern but will try to look for more understanding.
The 3 pt shooting correlations are pretty close to the mirror image of the mid-range correlations.
The string of correlations for inside shots are generally much milder than for these other two distances. The mid-range - 3 pt decision making of teams is only one of many factors affecting these roll-up stats but the general strategic lesson seems to favor more 3 point shots and less mid-rangers. Maybe there is a supportable rationale for the about 2/3rds of teams with analytic staff (to my knowledge) which have mid-range frequencies above the league average based on other / perhaps deeper analysis (such as what works against strong team playoff defense?). I currently wonder about the wisdom of this basic pattern but will try to look for more understanding.