Misc. offseason notes
Misc. offseason notes
Congrats to Adam Silver for hiring Rod Thorne to run basketball operations for the league. A welcome change.
Re: Misc. offseason notes
Wonder if Thorne will impact the rules much in next few years and in what direction.
Re: Misc. offseason notes
Outlier team rosters on height and weight
Based on what I see about current rosters (may not be totally up to date / accurate)…
Memphis and Washington have the most guys who weigh 260+ lbs at 3. A handful or a bit more have 2. The rest at one or zero. May be considered not that important as it doesn’t address guys between 245-260 who may be nearly as strong / strong enough but it was something I noticed for consideration. Being really beefy down low does appear to be a fairly significant part of the Memphis strategy and not of many others.
Dallas, Minnesota, Portland and Washington appear to the current leaders in guys who weigh 200 or less with at least 6. Dallas currently at 7. Thunder, Pacers and Heat only have 2. Intentional strategy or not.
Portland and Hornet with only 4 guys over 230.
Of course things may change as roster are finalized and get down to 15.
Based on what I see about current rosters (may not be totally up to date / accurate)…
Memphis and Washington have the most guys who weigh 260+ lbs at 3. A handful or a bit more have 2. The rest at one or zero. May be considered not that important as it doesn’t address guys between 245-260 who may be nearly as strong / strong enough but it was something I noticed for consideration. Being really beefy down low does appear to be a fairly significant part of the Memphis strategy and not of many others.
Dallas, Minnesota, Portland and Washington appear to the current leaders in guys who weigh 200 or less with at least 6. Dallas currently at 7. Thunder, Pacers and Heat only have 2. Intentional strategy or not.
Portland and Hornet with only 4 guys over 230.
Of course things may change as roster are finalized and get down to 15.
Re: Misc. offseason notes
Some quick questions, if anyone wants to chime in on them...
Not that it really matters much in terms of the race for the title (probably), but best frontcourt partner for Dirk? B Wright, Blair or other? Dirk-Wright was very good last season in about 8 minutes per game, up from barely used for a total of 18 minutes the season before. Will that continue or increase? I'd try a lot of that duo again and see. With Blair might be good, got to give that an adequate test too. With B James was mildly negative last season. With Marion pretty bad.
Anyone ever looked closely at the recent average winshare / salary ratios for domestic vs. international players in general or at team level? I can't recall if anyone has published anything on this topic.
If Lakers are 5+ games below .500 near the trade deadline what do they / Kobe do? Probably nothing.
Will Jeff Hornacek be able to teach the many terrible 3 point shooters on the Suns what a good shot is or how to get it? How many years til they have enough decent shooters?
Number of teams who will win 50+? Under 25?
Number of Nets who will still be on team next fall? Should be? Tenure of Jason Kidd? Under or over 4 years?
Will George Karl get re-hired in NBA? Only about 5 current coaches are much over 55 years old and that may not change much.
Anybody have average yearly roster spot turnover by team for say last 5 years?
Best surprise player in 2013-4?
Worst backcourts going forward next season?
Orlando
Detroit
Philly
Utah
Minny
Sacramento
A couple of these teams have to know that their backcourts are comparatively weak. A few of these teams probably think otherwise (Philly and Minny). I think they will be proven wrong but time will tell.
Not that it really matters much in terms of the race for the title (probably), but best frontcourt partner for Dirk? B Wright, Blair or other? Dirk-Wright was very good last season in about 8 minutes per game, up from barely used for a total of 18 minutes the season before. Will that continue or increase? I'd try a lot of that duo again and see. With Blair might be good, got to give that an adequate test too. With B James was mildly negative last season. With Marion pretty bad.
Anyone ever looked closely at the recent average winshare / salary ratios for domestic vs. international players in general or at team level? I can't recall if anyone has published anything on this topic.
If Lakers are 5+ games below .500 near the trade deadline what do they / Kobe do? Probably nothing.
Will Jeff Hornacek be able to teach the many terrible 3 point shooters on the Suns what a good shot is or how to get it? How many years til they have enough decent shooters?
Number of teams who will win 50+? Under 25?
Number of Nets who will still be on team next fall? Should be? Tenure of Jason Kidd? Under or over 4 years?
Will George Karl get re-hired in NBA? Only about 5 current coaches are much over 55 years old and that may not change much.
Anybody have average yearly roster spot turnover by team for say last 5 years?
Best surprise player in 2013-4?
Worst backcourts going forward next season?
Orlando
Detroit
Philly
Utah
Minny
Sacramento
A couple of these teams have to know that their backcourts are comparatively weak. A few of these teams probably think otherwise (Philly and Minny). I think they will be proven wrong but time will tell.
Re: Misc. offseason notes
Has anyone…
Looked at the overall correlation of first year boxscore stats with rest of career stats and then 1st + 2nd yr and 1-3 and so on for first 5 seasons? How fast does the correlation improve?
Looked at % of free agents (and maybe also just restricted free agents) who re-sign with current team by major sports agency (for maybe last 5-10 years)? By draft rank, position, age or previous salary? Perhaps that should influence team strategy with acquisitions and trades.
Looked at % of 1st or 2nd year players who play well in March-April, at least 25% better than early season, who maintain that level in the next season? How good a signal is late spring improved play?
Looked at average number of NBA player trades by year of GM tenure or previous season performance level (say lottery, playoff and maybe conference finals or above)? How does it change?
Looked at the top few factors (out of as many criteria as one can reasonably track) with highest correlation to GM and / or head coach getting fired in current season? It is a curiosity to most but not to them. Some stats research could potentially be self interested.
Looked at demographics of players who break thru .100 winshares per 48 minutes for the first time after age 25? And looked at % who repeat .100+ for 1 or more seasons thereafter?
Looked at % of players who played at least 25% of their time at PF and C (over say a 500 minute threshold) who did better in net counterpart boxscores and team results when at C?
Looked at average age for exceeding .100 winshares per 48 minutes by position and draft rank?
Looked at % of team minutes for first time title winning team that returned from previous year? (gets to the question of how much to stay the course vs, make late adjustments to get over the top)
Looked at the overall correlation of first year boxscore stats with rest of career stats and then 1st + 2nd yr and 1-3 and so on for first 5 seasons? How fast does the correlation improve?
Looked at % of free agents (and maybe also just restricted free agents) who re-sign with current team by major sports agency (for maybe last 5-10 years)? By draft rank, position, age or previous salary? Perhaps that should influence team strategy with acquisitions and trades.
Looked at % of 1st or 2nd year players who play well in March-April, at least 25% better than early season, who maintain that level in the next season? How good a signal is late spring improved play?
Looked at average number of NBA player trades by year of GM tenure or previous season performance level (say lottery, playoff and maybe conference finals or above)? How does it change?
Looked at the top few factors (out of as many criteria as one can reasonably track) with highest correlation to GM and / or head coach getting fired in current season? It is a curiosity to most but not to them. Some stats research could potentially be self interested.
Looked at demographics of players who break thru .100 winshares per 48 minutes for the first time after age 25? And looked at % who repeat .100+ for 1 or more seasons thereafter?
Looked at % of players who played at least 25% of their time at PF and C (over say a 500 minute threshold) who did better in net counterpart boxscores and team results when at C?
Looked at average age for exceeding .100 winshares per 48 minutes by position and draft rank?
Looked at % of team minutes for first time title winning team that returned from previous year? (gets to the question of how much to stay the course vs, make late adjustments to get over the top)
Re: Misc. offseason notes
A handful of teams last season had 2 guys who were close to +4 or above on RAPM on offense and a handful on defense. The Spurs with the only ones who were very close on both with Ginobli, Parker, Duncan, Splitter.
Next season Nets with have a top 3 guy on both offensive and defensive RAPM (Williams and Garnett) and three guys with strong balance (around +2 or above on both sides of the court) in Pierce, Kirilenko and Lopez.
Houston will bring together two of the top defensive RAPM guys in Howard and Asik (with Paul being one of the best on offense). Can they play much together and well together? Will their level of defensive impact sustain or see diminishing returns. Time will tell. One example that might be useful to study would be Duncan-Splitter. Don't have recent adjusted +/- data for that pair but the raw +/- was fine regular season and playoffs. Harden is their only guy with much above a +1 on offense.
Heat had most powerful cumulative offensive RAPM duo. On defense Andersen was by far the highest rated with Bosh at a nice enough but more moderate +2 level.
Thunder had the only pair each with +5s on offense.
Next season Nets with have a top 3 guy on both offensive and defensive RAPM (Williams and Garnett) and three guys with strong balance (around +2 or above on both sides of the court) in Pierce, Kirilenko and Lopez.
Houston will bring together two of the top defensive RAPM guys in Howard and Asik (with Paul being one of the best on offense). Can they play much together and well together? Will their level of defensive impact sustain or see diminishing returns. Time will tell. One example that might be useful to study would be Duncan-Splitter. Don't have recent adjusted +/- data for that pair but the raw +/- was fine regular season and playoffs. Harden is their only guy with much above a +1 on offense.
Heat had most powerful cumulative offensive RAPM duo. On defense Andersen was by far the highest rated with Bosh at a nice enough but more moderate +2 level.
Thunder had the only pair each with +5s on offense.
Re: Misc. offseason notes
The only players ever to average 25 pts/36 while shooting .640 TS%, and 7 Reb/36, and 4 Ast/36: LeBron and Durant, both last season.
The only players to average (per 36 min.) 23 pts, 4 Reb, 7.5 Ast, and 1.7 Stl in a season: Westbrook last year and Magic in '87.
Without the Steals requirement, Oscar Robertson had 8 such seasons. Lebron has one (2010) with 1.5 Stl/36
The only players to average (per 36 min.) 23 pts, 4 Reb, 7.5 Ast, and 1.7 Stl in a season: Westbrook last year and Magic in '87.
Without the Steals requirement, Oscar Robertson had 8 such seasons. Lebron has one (2010) with 1.5 Stl/36
Re: Misc. offseason notes
I computed salary for the best four starters on the expected 10 best teams for next year divided by the cumulative RAPM impact estimate last season to get a sense of how much these teams are paying for their best talent. The average was about $3.4 million per RAPM point. The Spurs are spending the least per RAPM point achieved / expected (about $2.6 million) followed closely by the Heat and then the Thunder. The Rockets, Griz, Pacers and Clips were very near the group average. The biggest / least efficient spenders on this are the Nets and Warriors at about 4.4 million and Bulls are 3rd.
As I said this calculation was for the best four starters. Several teams had big salary players who were not included because they were not in the best 4 by RAPM estimate last season (Thunder, Bulls, Nets and Pacers). These teams might be seen in the bigger picture as achieving less efficiency than indicated in the above calculation.
As I said this calculation was for the best four starters. Several teams had big salary players who were not included because they were not in the best 4 by RAPM estimate last season (Thunder, Bulls, Nets and Pacers). These teams might be seen in the bigger picture as achieving less efficiency than indicated in the above calculation.