Vote players into our alltime top 160, etc.

[Bobbofitos]

Around here, people suggested Marion was the "real" MVP for the Suns, when Nash was getting the award. After all, he played both ends.

Did we?

I think APBR largely avoids group think. I also think Nash's MVPs just predated my association with this forum, but I thought a lot of +/- and so forth backed up Nash's MVPs. (Or at least hammered away he was more responsible than Marion)

All that said, the Matrix has been shafted his whole career. Very underrated player and its great he earned a ring as a key member of the Mavericks.

[Mike G]

Some people thought Marion was the lynchpin on the Suns; some thought Amar'e; some -- not nearly as many as the frenzied media -- thought Nash.

We are probably about through the players who are "good enough to lead a team to a title". There have been a few committee-type champs, the '79 Sonics perhaps. And we're now voting on Sikma, DJ, and Gus from that squad. The 2000 Pacers had a chance to upend the Lakers without any superstar.

A player like Willis Reed or Rick Barry can lead a team to a title, if he also has a deep supporting cast.
Kirilenko's couple of years in the statistical limelight did not coincide with his being on a good team. Maybe he only flourished as the go-to guy, and was less comfortable as a supporting player. With (all)stars at C (Okur), PF (Boozer) and PG (DWill), AK and the Jazz rather underperformed in playoffs.

PO/RS is shorthand for Playoff/Regular-Season ratio in a given stat. You can do it with a player's PER or his Reb% or whatever. With WS/48, it's very team-dependent: If your team tanks, your WS shrink.

I use my own "T rate" in po/rs, since it's standardized for environment (points and rebounds available). There are ratios for career aggregate totals, and annual ratios (summed and minutes-weighted) for perspective.

In general, a player's po/rs will be less than 1.00 . Players we've been electing have been around .96, which is pretty good. Over 1.00 is extremely good.
If you do it with ws/48, expect ratios to be around .80 -- RS competition is vs .500 teams (on avg), and in playoffs it's more like .625, in recent decades.

[Mike G]

Regarding the Playoff/Regular Season performance ratio for career totals, here are averages for those we've voted or are voting on.
A list (top 25) .977
B list (#26-47) .990
C list (#48-69) .960
current crop .962

This supports the notion that superstars are just that because, at least in part, they have their way in the postseason. And/or they have gotten preferential treatment.

Is there an era bias? I'm going to casually call the players we've seen the 'top 120' here. Averages are not minutes-weighted. Under .era is the decade in which a career started; so '60s may be thought of as '60s-'70s typically.

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.era   top120  next500
'50s    .982    .950
'60s    .975    .951   
'70s    .980    .947
'80s    .985    .940 
'90s    .957    .895   
'00s    .948    .921

In the '50s and early '60s, 6 of 8 (or 9) teams got into the playoffs. A lot of playoff opponents were below avg teams.
In the mid '80s, playoffs included 16 of 23 teams; now it's 16 of 30, so it's rare that a sub-.500 team is your opponent.
The little uptick in the po/rs in this century is likely a selection bias issue: There's a disproportionate number of excellent players midway through their careers. In other words, the rank-and-file po/rs (.921) represents a higher caliber of players.

[Mike G]

The perception of era strength is a fascinating subject. I'm pretty sure NtA and I meant exactly the opposite when we agreed that 'making the allstar game isn't what it once was'.
So here are the weakest PER by position, of players named to the NBA All Star game. I'm just listing from 1955 onward, i.e., the shot clock era.
A PER of 15.0 is an 'average' player, though it runs higher for centers and lower for guards.

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Center    yr   PER     Forward   yr   PER     Guard     yr    PER
Eaton     89   10.6  Sauldsberry 59   10.8    Harrison  56    8.0
Clifton   57   12.1    Meschery  63   12.9    Martin    58    9.3
Donaldson 88   12.4    Hutchins  57   13.0    Martin    59    9.3
Kareem    89   12.9    Pollard   55   13.2    Regan     57   10.0
Imhoff    67   13.6    C Lee     68   13.4    Martin    57   10.5
Duckworth 89   13.9    LaRusso   63   13.6    Noble     60   10.9
Embry     65   14.2    Bradley   73   13.8    Gola      62   11.4
Reed      66   14.4    Wedman    76   13.9    Gola      64   11.6
Cowens    80   14.8    Deng      12   14.1    George    57   11.7
S Johnson 88   14.9    Shelton   82   14.2    Gola      63   12.0
Thurmond  74   15.0    Havlicek  78   14.3    Wilkens   63   12.1
Thurmond  66   15.0    Heinsohn  65   14.3    Hundley   61   12.2
Unseld    75   15.0    Hutchins  56   14.4    McGuire   58   12.2
Embry     64   15.1    Caldwell  69   14.5    Ohl       64   12.2
Rocha     52   15.2    P Silas   75   14.6    Rodgers   64   12.4
Russell   69   15.2    A Walker  03   14.6    A Smith   64   12.4
Lacey     75   15.3    AC Green  90   14.7    Garmaker  59   12.5
Sampson   87   15.4    Havlicek  77   14.7    Wilkens   64   12.5
Dukes     60   15.5    Rowe      76   14.7    McGuire   56   12.7
Kerr      56   15.7  TVanArsdale 72   14.7    Hundley   60   12.9

The late '80s were amazingly thin on good (or productive) centers, according to PER. The '50s were replete.
I thought surely there were more recent duds among the stars at C. Finally at #23 we come to Mutombo, 2002. None lower than 16.0 in the '90s, '00s, or '10s. [At 16.5, Magloire '04 ranks 30th.]

Forwards are more evenly spread through time, though more rare in recent decades. And with 2 forwards per 1 center (in theory), about twice as many are below 14.8 or so.

Guards were apparently doing their job without being productive, in the old days. These bottom 20 are all from 1964 and earlier. So I'll list lowest allstar guard PER by decade:

Code: Select all

1970s    yr   PER    1980s    yr  PER     1990s     yr   PER    2000s    yr   PER
Van Lier 76  13.0   Archibald 82  14.3    Dumars    95  13.9    Iverson  10  13.4    
Maravich 79  13.4   Archibald 81  14.3    Sprewell  95  14.1    Sprewell 01  15.1
Van Lier 77  13.4   Thomas    82  14.5    Armstrong 94  14.5    Francis  04  15.8
White    74  14.0   Archibald 80  15.3    Majerle   95  15.1    Iverson  09  15.8
Buse     77  14.1   Nixon     82  15.3    Majerle   93  15.4    Houston  01  16.1
Hollins  78  14.3   Nixon     85  15.6    Dumars    92  15.4    R Allen  11  16.4
White    76  14.6   Ainge     88  15.9    Thomas    93  15.4    R Allen  08  16.4
White    73  14.7   D Johnson 80  15.9    Dumars    97  15.6    Kidd     10  17.2
White    77  14.9   Thompson  83  16.1    Richmond  93  15.6  M Williams 09  17.2
White    75  14.9   J Malone  86  16.3   A Hardaway 98  15.9   J Johnson 08  17.3

That last column looks the best, and that's with 14 seasons of potential weak allstars.

[Mike G]

It looks like Allstar rosters were increased from 10 per side to 12 in 1968, coinciding with league expansion. I think they were still trying to get at least one per team in the game.

Not wanting to name names (too much work), here's a breakdown in Win Shares per 48 minutes (WS/48), from pages like this: http://bkref.com/tiny/M1Akm
There have been 40 all-star centers with ws/48 less than .120 (.100 is average, but as with PER, it runs higher for centers and lower for guards).
To be proportional by position, I also find 82 forwards named to the allstar game with < .110 ws/48; and 81 guards at < .095

Breaking it into 5-yr intervals in the shot-clock era (no ASG in '99) and the last 3 yrs.

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years  C<.12   F<.11   G<.095
55-59    4       7      16
60-64    5      12      16
65-69    5      14       8
70-74    3      18       8
75-79    2       5      11
80-84    1       4       3
85-89   12       5       3
90-94    2       5       3
95-00    1       7       4
01-05    1       4       4  
06-10    2       2       3
11-13*   0       1       2

The late '80s were just freakish for centers. The late '70s guard weakness I mentioned a few posts back is especially weak relative to the other positions at the time and to everything since.
The ABA was apparently hoarding the forwards.

[MW00]

The best careers available by a combination of rankings by win shares (Regular Season) and version of Hollinger EWA (crude and somewhat modern skewed, not fully up to date, subjectively modified for defense (not by me), with weighted playoffs)

Shawn Marion
Walt Bellamy
Larry Nance
Elton Brand
Chauncey Billups
Alex English
Grant Hill
Jack Sikma
Neil Johnston
Vlade Divac
Rasheed Wallace
Bailey Howell
Paul Arizin
Shawn Kemp
Chris Webber
Terry Cummings
Ed Macauley
Jeff Hornacek
Sidney Moncrief
Amar'e Stoudemire
Eddie Jones
Horace Grant
Chet Walker
Terry Porter
Andre Miller
Chris Mullin
Chris Bosh
Detlef Schrempf
Jason Terry
Marques Johnson
Sam Jones
Tim Hardaway
Sam Cassell
Rod Strickland
Harry Gallatin
Bill Laimbeer
Marcus Camby
Rashard Lewis
Walter Davis
Bernard King
Vern Mikkelsen
Nate Archibald
Cliff Hagan
Lenny Wilkens
Antawn Jamison
Maurice Cheeks
Stephon Marbury
Andrei Kirilenko
Alvan Adams
Carlos Boozer
Bobby Jones
Shareef-Abdur-Rahim
Predrag Stojakovic
Clyde Lovellette
John Drew
Calvin Murphy
Yao Ming
Mark Price

That's down to 125

[MW00]

Write in: Bailey Howell, Sidney Moncrief, Nate Archibald, Eddie Jones, Chet Walker, Walter Davis, Bernard King and Lenny Wilkens. (The last 5 mentioned were all fairly perhipheral).

[Mike G]

Heinsohn and Walton are not on that list, and we're about to elect them, it seems.

Due to arrive on Tuesday and not in that list: Blaylock, Bridges, Chambers, Mel Daniels, Daugherty, Greer, Penny, Ron Harper, Haywood, Oakley, Jermaine, Zach, Willis Reed, Rondo, Josh Smith, Smits, Thorpe, Westbrook, Deron Williams
The biggest 'reach', relative to my list is Peja (243 to me); then John Drew (232), Murphy (216), Shareef (208), Rashard (182), Mullin (166), Macauley (155)

From the list you submitted, we'll also be voting on Cheeks, Laimbeer, Schrempf, Andre Miller -- perhaps Mikkelsen, Camby, Yao -- in the next round.

Even when you approach perfection in attributing wins -- and even when you give playoffs appropriate weight -- it's still not quite there in assessing the impact of a Rondo or a Reed, IMO

[Mike G]

Down the home stretch here. Voting ends tomorrow morning (Tues.) Six people have placed 146 votes, I think. Remember you may change any of your votes.

George McGinnis looks like the best player/career on course to be fumbled in this round, with just 2 supporters among 6 voters.
McGinnis is the guy who averaged 32-16-8 in the playoffs, through the 1975 ABA Finals. He was co-MVP that year (w Erving).
He jumped to the Sixers and was all-NBA 1st team. A total of 6 allstar games, 3 in each league.

With write-ins, 59 players have gotten consideration. Of these, 26 have at least 3 votes, including write-in Sidney Moncrief; and previous-round write-ins Rodman and Sharman.
Just 14 players have more than half of our votes; so it would be nice if more voters would register, and perhaps create a better sense of consensus.

Another 14 players have just one vote each, including 2 who were just me: Alvan Adams and Lamar Odom. One reason I like these guys is their Versatility: They were bigs who loved to pass the ball.

Odom has bad press right now, but he was the #3-4 guy on two Lakers champs. Even when he wasn't starting, he was pretty indispensable for them, playing 3 positions.
After 14 seasons, he's 93rd in NBA minutes, 36th in D-Reb, and above average in almost every production.

Players with 30,000 minutes and at least 14 pts, 9 reb, and 4 ast per 36: Bird, Webber, and Odom.
With 20k minutes, add Alvan Adams and Billy Cunningham.
Webber is the only one better at everything (except shooting %), and some do not consider him to be an all-time great.
http://bkref.com/tiny/vdkRj

[mark kieffer]

Odom had top 100 talent/potential, but he's not a top 100 player.

C-Webb, I initially thought would go in the Top 100 before I looked at his numbers, but I think he's borderline. Could go either way with him.

[mark kieffer]

Also with C-Webb, you have to look at it that PF is a pretty damn strong position:

Tim Duncan > C-Webb
KG > C-Webb
Karl Malone > C-Webb
Charles Barkley > C-Webb
Dirk > C-Webb
Elvin Hayes > C-Webb
Bob Pettit > C-Webb
Kevin McHale > C-Webb
Rodman > C-Webb
Nance > C-Webb
Shawn Marion > C-Webb
Sheed > C-Webb
DeBusschere > C-Webb
Jerry Lucas > C-Webb

So to me, he's at least the 15th best PF of all time....Then I think about guys like Chris Bosh, Elton Brand, Pau Gasol, Shawn Kemp, Antwan Jamison, Larry Johnson, and Derrick Coleman.... And I feel like C-Webb is in that class of guys, which means he could be anywhere from 15th to 22nd or lower of all time at PF.... But to me that class is a little lower than the class I have above.... So I leave C-Webb out

[Mike G]

Mark, welcome to the convo! Hope you will vote.

Indeed, a search for PF here -- http://bkref.com/tiny/q45jF -- using as criteria that the player is F or F-C, and his Total Rebound % is greater than 12, shows Webber as 31st in career regular season Win Shares. And this only includes forwards who registered a TRb%, which is to say, after 1971.

Win Shares isn't fond of Webber, mostly due to his low shooting%, relative to his era.
Among those top 100 in WS, he's 40th in WS/48.

Among the same top 100 WS players, he's 10th in PER. Again, in regular seasons.
He's 27th in minutes, and among those with as many minutes, he's 8th in PER. When Elton Brand plays a few more substandard minutes, Webber will be 7th.
Just 14 have higher WS/48 for as many minutes.

His career playoffs are slightly weaker. He's 27th in minutes, 37th in WS; among those with as many minutes, he's 11th in PER and 25th in WS/48.
Only Larry Bird had a higher playoff Assist % for as many minutes. With less than CWebb's 2900 min., we go all the way to Grant Hill's 1232 min. with a higher Ast%. Not sure either is actually a PF, in general.

Webber led the league in Reb/G in 1999.
He's 83rd in b-r.com's Hall of Fame probability, which they estimate at 75% likely.
Per 36 minutes, only Bird, Webber, and Cunningham have averaged 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 assists in over 50 career min.
http://bkref.com/tiny/VPlnY

[Mike G]

I realize this is totally evil, but here are some recent PF/C and their peak salaries.

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top salary, $ millions
Garnett    2004   28.0
Duncan     2010   22.2
Nowitzki   2013   20.9
K Malone   2003   19.3
Webber     2006   19.1
P Gasol    2013   19.0
Marion     2009   17.8
Bosh       2013   17.5
Brand      2012   17.1
Rasheed    2004   17.0
Jamison    2008   16.4
B Wallace  2007   16.0
Kemp       2004   14.9
Barkley    2000    9.0

Obviously many factors are at work here. But Webber was making 9 mill in 1997-98, when Barkley was getting 2.25, Malone 5.1, Kemp 8.6, Rodman 4.5 ...
Most Win Shares by PF: Malone, Duncan, Garnett, Barkley, Nowitzki.
Webber may not have ever been the best at his position. But at other times in NBA history, he may well have been.

[mark kieffer]

I realize this is totally evil, but here are some recent PF/C and their peak salaries.

Code: Select all

top salary, $ millions
Garnett    2009   24.8
Duncan     2010   22.2
Nowitzki   2013   20.9
K Malone   2003   19.3
Webber     2006   19.1
P Gasol    2013   19.0
Marion     2009   17.8
Bosh       2013   17.5
Brand      2012   17.1
Rasheed    2004   17.0
Jamison    2008   16.4
B Wallace  2007   16.0
Kemp       2004   14.9
Barkley    2000    9.0

Obviously many factors are at work here. But Webber was making 9 mill in 1997-98, when Barkley was getting 2.25, Malone 5.1, Kemp 8.6, Rodman 4.5 ...
Most Win Shares by PF: Malone, Duncan, Garnett, Barkley, Nowitzki.
Webber may not have ever been the best at his position. But at other times in NBA history, he may well have been.

Salary logic..... Stephon Marbury made 17 million his last full season in the NBA... You want to put him up there on any all time lists (other than all time over paid or all time suck?)?

in 1997-1998, Malone was 34, Barkley was 34, Kemp was 28, Rodman was 36... C-Webb was 24. Of course he was going to make more. He was the only guy on the list not in his prime yet, and salaries in the NBA were skyrocketing....

If you look at all time win-shares, Webber is in the Top 120.

Since you are quoting win-shares, Webber has only had 1 season ever when he was in the Top 10 in winshares... All time, he is outside of the Top 100, like 117th or something.

Like I said, he's a borderline player for Top 100 of all time. If I were coaching a team, would I take him in his prime over lots of guys? Yeah.... But to think he's in the Top 100 is stretching it for me.

[Mike G]

We got another voter! And some stray votes.
Now there are 19 with 4+ votes and 31 with 3+
What a dilemma!

Someone drag a voter in here.
Or, explain why you think we should promote and replace 31 players, or just 19 .
Should we advance players with fewer than half our votes?

Those on the bubble (3 of 7 votes) are : English, Bosh, Lovellette, DeBush, DJ, McGinnis, Hornacek, Sheed, Sam Jones, Moncrief, TBug, Zelmo

On the one hand, all these guys are likely to be voted in easily in the next round.
On the other, they got half or fewer votes than some of the other guys.

It'll take a lot longer to go through all the players if we are too selective in each round. But then, who's in a hurry? If an undeserving player gets in, we'll wonder how he got there.

Adding 31 to the 69 we've got is -- presto! -- 100 players. We'd be back on track. But we'd have set a precedent. Is that OK ?