Predictions 2013-14

[Mike G]

fpliii now has the most unique predictions -- averaging 5.6 wins absolute difference from the averages.
deepak, I'll leave your numbers as they appeared in my first summary table.
jBro , and anyone: you may submit decimal fractions of wins. They might be tiebreakers, and the prizes are substantial.

[Mike G]

Code: Select all

avg     West    jBro   ncs    hDon   Bobb   jank    eW    deep   416x   fpli
56.4     LAC     55     54     58     58     56     58     52     53     64
55.4     SAS     57     56     54     59     55     55     50     56     56
54.0     Okl     56     53     53     57     64     57     47     52     48
53.7     Hou     54     56     56     51     56     50     51     54     56
50.0     Mem     50     52     50     56     56     51     49     38     48

46.2     GSW     47     47     47     46     47     42     51     37     52
44.7     Den     41     46     44     46     44     51     46     44     41
42.6     Dal     41     42     43     47     43     48     36     48     36
42.6     Min     41     36     41     41     42     45     46     50     42
39.3     NOP     40     35     35     35     40     37     40     49     43

38.3     Por     37     38     38     37     40     34     43     46     32
31.6     LAL     31     28     30     31     33     31     32     33     36
30.3     Sac     31     29     27     31     25     34     37     29     30
29.8     Uta     29     35     31     26     27     18     26     40     37
22.2     Phx     22     29     29     21     15     19     23     25     17
                                                  
 
avg     East    jBro   ncs    hDon   Bobb   jank    eW    deep   416x   fpli
58.8     Mia     60     58     60     60     61     56     55     56     63
54.6     Brk     54     53     51     52     57     60     53     48     64
52.4     Chi     54     54     56     51     56     44     51     43     63
51.6     Ind     54     54     49     50     55     53     50     44     56
46.5     NYK     45     44     45     46     47     51     46     43     52

41.2     Det     39     35     36     39     36     45     38     50     52
40.9     Atl     45     44     43     45     46     44     37     45     20
40.0     Cle     36     40     40     30     42     43     46     43     40
37.7     Tor     39     40     39     41     37     36     35     41     32
37.2     Was     38     33     41     41     35     32     37     32     46

30.8     Mil     32     34     34     30     27     34     37     33     17
28.3     Cha     24     31     28     31     25     31     29     27     29
27.4     Bos     30     28     30     27     25     24     38     24     21
25.1     Orl     26     26     20     26     23     25     30     29     20
18.8     Phl     22     20     22     19     15     22     18     15     17

[fpliii]

fpliii now has the most unique predictions -- averaging 5.6 wins absolute difference from the averages.
deepak, I'll leave your numbers as they appeared in my first summary table.
jBro , and anyone: you may submit decimal fractions of wins. They might be tiebreakers, and the prizes are substantial.

I'll submit results for my probability-based model instead of my discrete W/L machine learning numbers later today in that case. Should have them by tipoff.

[Yooper]

Mike, I hope you don't mind another new poster. Long time lurker and thought I'd give it a go. I'm not a stats guy so I don't use any formulas but I do use stats extensively to help sort out my thoughts. I watch a ton of NBA so thought it would be fun to try. First time I've ever actually done this.

Western Conference

Spurs 58
Clips 57
Griz 56
OKC 55
Rockets 54
Mavs 48
Lakers 42
Warriors 41
Wolves 41
Nuggets 40
KIngs 38
Pelicans 35
Blazers 34
Suns 30
Jazz 18

Eastern Conference

Heat 60
Bulls 60
Nets 55
Pacers 49
Knicks 47
Raptors 41
Pistons 38
Wizards 37
Bobcats 35
Hawks 35
Cavs 33
Bucks 30
Magic 26
Celtics 25
Sixers 12

[sideshowbob]

fpliii now has the most unique predictions -- averaging 5.6 wins absolute difference from the averages.
deepak, I'll leave your numbers as they appeared in my first summary table.
jBro , and anyone: you may submit decimal fractions of wins. They might be tiebreakers, and the prizes are substantial.

I'll submit results for my probability-based model instead of my discrete W/L machine learning numbers later today in that case. Should have them by tipoff.

Looking forward to this

[fpliii]

fpliii now has the most unique predictions -- averaging 5.6 wins absolute difference from the averages.
deepak, I'll leave your numbers as they appeared in my first summary table.
jBro , and anyone: you may submit decimal fractions of wins. They might be tiebreakers, and the prizes are substantial.

I'll submit results for my probability-based model instead of my discrete W/L machine learning numbers later today in that case. Should have them by tipoff.

Looking forward to this

Ask and ye shall receive:

Code: Select all

   East	
Team  adjW
MIA	62.0
CHI	59.6
BRK	58.7
IND	55.3
WAS	46.7
NYK	45.5
DET	44.7
CLE	41.6
TOR	36.5
ATL	32.9
CHA	28.4
ORL	25.2
MIL	24.9
BOS	21.0
PHI	17.7

Code: Select all

   West	
Team  adjW
LAC	62.8
SAS	55.6
HOU	54.7
OKC	48.3
MEM	47.9
GSW	47.8
DAL	42.9
NOP	41.2
DEN	40.7
POR	38.0
MIN	37.4
LAL	37.0
UTA	29.6
SAC	27.8
PHO	17.5

Mike G - Please use these instead. I'll leave my old post here just for archiving's sake.

[Mike G]

OK, got that, fpliii. Will wait for a final roll call to post the update.
Yooper, got you too.
Crow, are you sitting this one out?
What about Pelton? Does anyone have his?
Hollinger is probably out for this one.
Bill Simmons has won before, though he likely doesn't know it.
Perhaps someone will inform us when 'Vegas' finally settles.
I may submit the average of all guesses and call it APBR.

[Statman]

OK, got that, fpliii. Will wait for a final roll call to post the update.
Yooper, got you too.
Crow, are you sitting this one out?
What about Pelton? Does anyone have his?
Hollinger is probably out for this one.
Bill Simmons has won before, though he likely doesn't know it.
Perhaps someone will inform us when 'Vegas' finally settles.
I may submit the average of all guesses and call it APBR.

Good job pulling this together Mike. I'll definitely put out my picks NEXT season - my projection model unfortunately is still a work in progress.

[nbacouchside]

Code: Select all

╔═══════════════════════╦══════╗
║         Team          ║ Wins ║
╠═══════════════════════╬══════╣
║ Miami Heat            ║   59 ║
║ Houston Rockets       ║   56 ║
║ San Antonio Spurs     ║   56 ║
║ L.A. Clippers         ║   54 ║
║ Brooklyn Nets         ║   53 ║
║ Chicago Bulls         ║   53 ║
║ Indiana Pacers        ║   53 ║
║ Oklahoma City Thunder ║   53 ║
║ Memphis Grizzlies     ║   52 ║
║ Golden State Warriors ║   46 ║
║ Denver Nuggets        ║   45 ║
║ New York Knicks       ║   45 ║
║ Atlanta Hawks         ║   44 ║
║ Dallas Mavs           ║   43 ║
║ Toronto Raptors       ║   40 ║
║ Cleveland Cavs        ║   39 ║
║ Minnesota T-Wolves    ║   38 ║
║ Portland Blazers      ║   38 ║
║ Detroit Pistons       ║   36 ║
║ Milwaukee Bucks       ║   35 ║
║ New Orleans Pelicans  ║   35 ║
║ Utah Jazz             ║   35 ║
║ Washington Wizards    ║   35 ║
║ Charlotte Bobcats     ║   30 ║
║ Sacramento Kings      ║   30 ║
║ Boston Celtics        ║   29 ║
║ L.A. Lakers           ║   28 ║
║ Orlando Magic         ║   25 ║
║ Philadelphia Sixers   ║   23 ║
║ Phoenix Suns          ║   22 ║
╚═══════════════════════╩══════╝

Updated results with mean regression for HCA and to reflect the Gortat trade. These are my final predictions.

[Jacob Frankel]

SCHOENE's are here:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/preview2 ... rojections

Wages of Wins are here:
http://www.boxscoregeeks.com/previews

Might want to throw in previous season's SRS too.

Here are mine:

Atlanta Hawks 45
Boston Celtics 26
Brooklyn Nets 56
Charlotte Bobcats 26
Chicago Bulls 55
Cleveland Cavaliers 41
Dallas Mavericks 43
Denver Nuggets 40
Detroit Pistons 36
Golden State Warriors 46
Houston Rockets 56
Indiana Pacers 54
Los Angeles Clippers 56
Los Angeles Lakers 33
Memphis Grizzlies 55
Miami Heat 61
Milwaukee Bucks 27
Minnesota Timberwolves 43
New Orleans Pelicans 40
New York Knicks 47
Oklahoma City Thunder 63
Orlando Magic 24
Philadelphia 76ers 16
Phoenix Suns 18
Portland Trail Blazers 40
Sacramento Kings 25
San Antonio Spurs 55
Toronto Raptors 37
Utah Jazz 30
Washington Wizards 36

[Jacob Frankel]

Oh, and here's ESPN's summer Forecast

East:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95599 ... -standings

West:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/95609 ... -standings

[AcrossTheCourt]

Mine are mine:

Atlanta Hawks 41
Boston Celtics 24
Brooklyn Nets 56
Charlotte Bobcats 22
Chicago Bulls 52
Cleveland Cavaliers 37
Dallas Mavericks 44
Denver Nuggets 33
Detroit Pistons 39
Golden State Warriors 49
Houston Rockets 55
Indiana Pacers 56
Los Angeles Clippers 60
Los Angeles Lakers 32
Memphis Grizzlies 53
Miami Heat 58
Milwaukee Bucks 32
Minnesota Timberwolves 46
New Orleans Pelicans 30
New York Knicks 48
Oklahoma City Thunder 55
Orlando Magic 21
Philadelphia 76ers 20
Phoenix Suns 23
Portland Trail Blazers 41
Sacramento Kings 32
San Antonio Spurs 58
Toronto Raptors 42
Utah Jazz 35
Washington Wizards 36

http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.bl ... stern.html

I wrote up an explanation and preview for all the eastern conference teams. I would have had it done for the western conference, but I spent too much time digging through rosters and looking up stats.... But this are my final estimates, after changing stuff due to the Gortat trade and a couple minor news pieces.

[Mike G]

As a group, We are expecting the East to win 48% of all games. Last year, thanks to a .418 mark vs the West, they were .457 Pythagorean. So, we are expecting the East to better-than-halfway close the gap to .500 .

It's a nice hope, we tend to have it every year, and it basically never happens. The East tends to get the higher draft picks, they have the more productive rookies, and something just as big offsets all that.

The reason I bring it up is that team win expectations are somewhat dependent on this eternal imbalance. SRS needs an adjustment to predict Wins, depending on East or West Conference.

I didn't make any such adjustment in my predictions. Last year in the East, Chi, Atl, and Bos were over .500, with negative SRS. Western teams had SOS about 0.7 PPG tougher than Eastern teams had. This makes a difference of about 2 wins per team, plus or minus.

[AcrossTheCourt]

For comparison, here's Matt Moore, Royce Young, and Zach Harper:


I didn't see that decimal predictions could be made. Here are mine in case it's not too late:
40.62 Atlanta Hawks
24.27 Boston Celtics
56.01 Brooklyn Nets
21.51 Charlotte Bobcats
51.93 Chicago Bulls
37.27 Cleveland Cavaliers
43.50 Dallas Mavericks
33.03 Denver Nuggets
39.35 Detroit Pistons
49.44 Golden State Warriors
54.61 Houston Rockets
56.40 Indiana Pacers
59.51 Los Angeles Clippers
32.08 Los Angeles Lakers
53.33 Memphis Grizzlies
58.31 Miami Heat
31.76 Milwaukee Bucks
46.15 Minnesota Timberwolves
29.68 New Orleans Hornets
48.29 New York Knicks
55.42 Oklahoma City Thunder
21.03 Orlando Magic
19.59 Philadelphia 76ers
23.20 Phoenix Suns
40.78 Portland Trail Blazers
32.22 Sacramento Kings
58.14 San Antonio Spurs
41.52 Toronto Raptors
34.66 Utah Jazz
36.40 Washington Wizards


With champion Hollinger working for Memphis, who will step up?

[Mike G]

Here is the list of predictions by 11 of us. If you don't like your abbreviation -- it means "hurl" in Hungarian, perhaps -- let me know.

Code: Select all

avg   tm    jBro  ncs   hDon  Bobb  ATC   jank  Yoop   eW   deep  416x  fpli
41    Atl    45    44    43    45    41    45    35    44    37    45    33
27    Bos    30    29    30    27    24    26    25    24    38    24    21
54    Brk    54    53    51    52    56    56    55    60    53    48    59
28    Cha    24    30    28    31    22    26    35    31    29    27    28
53    Chi    54    53    56    51    52    55    60    44    51    43    60

39    Cle    36    39    40    30    37    41    33    43    46    43    42
44    Dal    41    43    43    47    44    43    48    48    36    48    43
43    Den    41    45    44    46    33    40    40    51    46    44    41
40    Det    39    36    36    39    39    36    38    45    38    50    45
46    GSW    47    46    47    46    49    46    41    42    51    37    48

avg   tm    jBro  ncs   hDon  Bobb  ATC   jank  Yoop   eW   deep  416x  fpli
54    Hou    54    56    56    51    55    56    54    50    51    54    55
52    Ind    54    53    49    50    56    54    49    53    50    44    55
57    LAC    55    54    58    58    60    56    57    58    52    53    63
33    LAL    31    28    30    31    32    33    42    31    32    33    37
51    Mem    50    52    50    56    53    55    56    51    49    38    48

59    Mia    60    59    60    60    58    61    60    56    55    56    62
32    Mil    32    35    34    30    32    27    30    34    37    33    25
43    Min    41    38    41    41    46    43    41    45    46    50    37
38    NOP    40    35    35    35    30    40    35    37    40    49    41
46    NYK    45    45    45    46    48    47    47    51    46    43    46

avg   tm    jBro  ncs   hDon  Bobb  ATC   jank  Yoop   eW   deep  416x  fpli
54    Okl    56    53    53    57    55    63    55    57    47    52    48
25    Orl    26    25    20    26    21    24    26    25    30    29    25
19    Phl    22    23    22    19    20    16    12    22    18    15    18
23    Phx    22    22    29    21    23    18    30    19    23    25    18
39    Por    37    38    38    37    41    40    34    34    43    46    38

31    Sac    31    30    27    31    32    25    38    34    37    29    28
56    SAS    57    56    54    59    58    55    58    55    50    56    56
39    Tor    39    40    39    41    42    37    41    36    35    41    37
29    Uta    29    35    31    26    35    30    18    18    26    40    30
37    Was    38    35    41    41    36    36    37    32    37    32    47

What's the best way to sort the teams? East and West, alphabetically? Best to worst?

The submissions of 416x are pretty wild -- he has the highest guess for 6 teams and the lowest for another 6. He has 7 of the 12 biggest outliers (departures from avg).
Other than 416x, we have:
- jBro is not highest or lowest on any team.
- ncs is highest on Uta and Phl; lowest on Min, LAL
- hDon is highest on nobody; lowest on Orl, Brk, Ind
- Bobb is high on Mem, SAS; low on Cle
- ATC is high on Ind, Tor; way down on Den, NOP
- jank is way high on Okl, low on Sac, Phx
- Yoop is highest on LAL, Phx, Sac, Cha, Chi; lowest on Uta (tie), Phl, Por, GSW
- eW is high on Den, Brk, NYK, Det; way low on Uta (tie), Chi, Was, Hou
- deep is way high on Bos, Cle, GSW, Mil, Orl, Por; low on Dal, Okl, SAS, LAC, Tor
- fpli is highest on Was, LAC, NOP, Mia; far lowest on Atl, Mil, Bos, Min, Phx (tie), Mem