Early 2013-14 stat-based observations

[Crow]

Some quick comments:

The Hawks’ Schroeder has started slow in pre-season, with bad stats in all the main categories except assists. In the first few real games, he has been just weak, not horrendous.

Boston’s guards with a collectively awful start. Team with one of the weakest 3 pt attacks. Mismatch between coach / strategy and Ainge’s current roster? Might not care or mind right now of course.

Derrick Rose and Kyrie Irving both putting up stats about as bad as imaginable for them. Ditto for Beals and Waiters.

Monta Ellis a mild positive surprise except for heavy turnovers. Did all he Dallas insiders want him or was he the choice of one element? Still don’t really get his acquisition, unless perhaps he becomes a trade chip relatively soon.

Never got anyone wanting Randy Foye either.

Clippers with Doc Rivers off to a terrible start on defense. Have to have massive improvement there or they really aren’t a serious contender.

Nick Young so far sucking. Nash looks like an incredibly bad acquisition and a should be retiree prospect. Jordan Hill with a nice comeback.
Memphis’ bench production so far has been weaker than they probably expected. Not enough quality 3 pt shooting on that team (even with Miller), especially for deep contention.

Pachulia shining in a bigger role so far.

Looking at pre-season and last season I thought Teletovic should not play at all. He has played one game, very poorly.
I have not been near as high on the Pelicans as most. Pre-season made me wonder if I was mistaken but probably not that mistaken. Evans with a rough start. Rivers still not looking like he belongs at all.

Oladipo much weaker so far than pre-season.

Carter-Williams the star of the draft. Anthony Bennett? Maybe he will grow eventually like Tristan Thompson. They hope. Horrendous start.

Portland still has a weak bench.

Giving Marcus Thornton the contract he got continues to look ridiculous. Ridiculous choice of a traditional methods, long-time insider.

Kawhi Leonard a superstar in the making? Still don’t see enough for that narrative.

Ibaka, a lousy start.

Rudy Gay doesn’t think he needs advice from advanced stats…

Kidd-Gilchrist has been blah, while Gerald Henderson has been awful.

Earl Clark has been terrible in pre-season and since. A pretty dubious free agent acquisition, especially at the somewhat inflated price.

Dirk has very good stats except rebounding.

Drummond and Monroe must be playing together a lot as I thought they would, while others did not.

Ray Allen shooting fine after a terrible pre-season.

Love back to very productive. Rubio still can’t shoot like a pro.

Archie Goodwin has been awful so far. Far, far from ready.

Main Spurs doing fine, on offense. But the defense is inadequate.

How much longer does Washington stick with Wittman?

[Bobbofitos]

Crow, Oladipo has been fantastic. Not sure what you're talking about there, he looks like the real deal

[Crow]

Oladipo:

Below or well below league average on eFG%, TS%, 3pt FG%, FT%, TO%, Off Rtg (87!), WS per 48 (0.32! Correction .032).

Good assists, steals, blocks.

Offensive inefficiency partially masked by 28% usage.

[colts18]

Oladipo:
WS per 48 (0.32!).

0.32 is a pretty good WS/48

[schtevie]

0.032, not so much (small sample size theater performance).

[dbabbitt]

Gordon Hayward's higher assist rate during preseason has so far not been a fluke. 27.5 AST% in the regular season.

Isaiah Thomas is playing out of his mind through 4 games: 65.8 TS% ~ 32.2 AST% ~ 7-15 from 3 ~ 30 mpg and 8 FTA ~ 27.8 USG

Asik and Howard have played together for a total of 60 minutes and their net rating is -3.4 ~ The Rockets net rating as a team through five games is 9.1

Sports VU: Miles Plumlee and Brook Lopez are right there along with Roy Hibbert at the top of charts for both Opponent Field Goal Percentage and Opp FGA at the Rim (per game). http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingDefe ... ND_RIM*G*4 With much less playing time and Opp FGA Mason Plumlee is right there with them too.

[AcrossTheCourt]

When Howard and Asik are on the court at the same time, the team's defensive rebound rate is 72.3. I expected something a little higher. (NBAWOWY) I'll track that as the season progresses. Yet their offensive rebound rate is 34. This is a good test for a diminishing rebound rate here.

Howard has managed to pull in 30.8% of his def. rebs playing next to Asik for a total rebound rate of 22.3.

[Crow]

0.032, not so much (small sample size theater performance).

Thanks for the correction on the number. (I updated original post.)

Of course it is a very small sample but it seemed to me like a thing worth mentioning / watching in the sea of things seen and unseen and that it might generate some additional commentary here. I just said his NBA season start was much worse than his better pre-season. I expect him to get better and very probably be good or better with time (in a few months or years). but in the first games his overall production rates in many categories are well below average and so I wouldn't call that a good start. Not that surprising but not where he wants to get to yet. I kinda dislike when players get over hyped or skate in the media on bad efficiency numbers, especially flashy high usage perimeter players. Oladipo is clearly not the worst offender of this type and has other redeeming qualities but he may be being pushed to be or personally going for being a flashy high usage perimeter player too much for his skills as of now. A lot of flashy high usage perimeter players are not as helpful to their team overall (according to RAPM) as they and many believe. A good number of these actually hurt their team overall according to RAPM.

[Statman]

Gordon Hayward's higher assist rate during preseason has so far not been been a fluke. 27.5 AST% in the regular season.

Isaiah Thomas is playing out of his mind through 4 games: 65.8 TS% ~ 32.2 AST% ~ 7-15 from 3 ~ 30 mpg and 8 FTA ~ 27.8 USG

Speaking of playing out of his mind (last night) - Nikola Vucevic just jumped into my top 10 in NBA WAR (where Spencer Hawes has been residing for 6 continuous days?!): http://www.hoopsnerd.com/uploads/DailyN ... atings.pdf

[Crow]

Asik and Howard have played together for a total of 60 minutes and their net rating is -3.4 ~ The Rockets net rating as a team through five games is 9.1

Thanks for that observation. I share interest in how well that works.

[Crow]

When Howard and Asik are on the court at the same time, the team's defensive rebound rate is 72.3. I expected something a little higher. (NBAWOWY) I'll track that as the season progresses. Yet their offensive rebound rate is 34. This is a good test for a diminishing rebound rate here.

Howard has managed to pull in 30.8% of his def. rebs playing next to Asik for a total rebound rate of 22.3.

Ideally it would be useful to know how often two or more rebounders on the same team have the a "rebound opportunity" of the same play or could have it they felt it was worth the effort to get into such position. The low level of contested rebounds overall suggests that rebounding is usually a role fulfillment enterprise and not that exerting but it would add to the discussion of diminishing returns (and lineup design more broadly) to know how often 2+ teammates are available for that role fulfillment.


Asik's early contested rebound percentage in more than twice Dwight's.

[dbabbitt]

Asik and Howard have played together for a total of 60 minutes and their net rating is -3.4 ~ The Rockets net rating as a team through five games is 9.1

Thanks for that observation. I share interest in how well that works.

Howard ~ Asik: 92.3 OffRtg 95.7 DefRtg 93.14 Pace
Rockets: 111.1 OffRtg 102.0 DefRtg 100.10 Pace

[dbabbitt]

Detroit Pistons

Overall = 102.1 OffRtg 103.7 DefRtg
Drummond - Monroe - Smith = 99.8 OffRtg 114.1 DefRtg

[Crow]

Oladipo's winshares per 48 rate is now -0.01. His turnover rate is in the top 10 in the league among those who play more than scant minutes. It was the worst in league a few days ago. His turnover rate is a good reason for looking at offensive rating in addition to shooting / scoring efficiency numbers. His offensive rating is down to 82, which puts him in bottom 15 along with Derrick Rose.

[Statman]

Oladipo's winshares per 48 rate is now -0.01. His turnover rate is in the top 10 in the league among those who play more than scant minutes. It was the worst in league a few days ago. His turnover rate is a good reason for looking at offensive rating in addition to shooting / scoring efficiency numbers. His offensive rating is down to 82, which puts him in bottom 15 along with Derrick Rose.

To quote myself on my much too long write up and college ratings breakdown of the draftees back on July 11:

"Oladipo's fairly poor turnover rating is probably his biggest red flag"

Not an exciting quote.

Statistically (all things considered - pace, SoS, blah, blah, blah) that was probably his only real area of concern. I expected it to be his biggest prob - since almost ALL rookies struggle in offensive efficiencies (TO rate & TS%).

He'll be fine, but I'd expect his turnover rate to be a bit worse than league average for a few years. He might be at least a little better than league average for a SG almost everywhere else by the end of this year or next.

When I update my HnR this morning - I'll post his update here if I remember. 100 would be a league average player - we'll see where my numbers have him.

I haven't updated the site for two days (family weekend w/ my younger son's 6th birthday) - I'll be all caught up and everything posted this morning.