The NBA's Best Shooter

[talkingpractice]

from nba.com today. "Drummond, the NBA's best shooter, held up his end of the bargain by going 8-for-10, but the rest of the Pistons were held to 37.7 percent from the floor."

they just have to stop saying this. for years now, we've had to read about "Tyson Chandler, the NBA's best shooter". and now this.

they just have to stop saying this.

[EvanZ]

Think of it this way. If they stopped saying it, there would be no need for us anymore.

As a Warriors fan, I was happy with that win last night, but watching Smith and Jennings shoot the ball is absolutely painful. It's unbearable at times. I felt bad for the rims.

[steveshea]

Haha

Drummond and Chandler are both efficient in their production. They don't miss much, and since they aren't typically asked to create offense or handle the ball, they don't have a particularly high turnover rate. Since they operate around the hoop, they grab offensive boards (extending offensive possessions). So, for the advanced metrics that value efficiency and measure efficiency through inputs such as fg%, ORB, and TO, these players rate very well. However, I wouldn't classify either as a particularly good NBA shooter.

I think the interesting question here is how do you balance quality of shots (or efficiency in production) and quantity of shots when measuring the value of an individual? With a 24 second shot clock, someone on the team eventually has to shoot. Sometimes, there isn't a good shot to be taken, and a team's "star" (Durant, LeBron, Carmelo, etc) is given the burden of the difficult field goal attempt. Quality and quantity are not independent. Perhaps Carmelo goes too far and takes many shots when he should pass. Where do we draw the line? How do we identify the bad vs good choice in shot attempt, pass etc?

[AcrossTheCourt]

The NBA's best shooter probably shouldn't shoot 14.3% from the foul line.

[Crow]

Worst shooting efficency (eFG%) so far among those with 50+ FGAs:

6th worst Westbrook
5th Rose
4th Rubio
3rd Jefferson
2nd T. Evans
1st Garnett

http://bkref.com/tiny/uYaOi

How much longer will Rubio get to "grow out of it"? He is the one name who is a long-term resident at this depth.
Pelicans made a bad choice to sign Evans.
How much will Rose and Westbrook recover? And will All-Star voters largely ignore it if they don't shoot even decently?
Is Garnett just in a brief bad shooting spot or has he lost it?

All but Rubio have a usage above 20%. Westbrook with the 2nd highest usage in league and highest of his career (and a -0.022 winshares per 48 to go with it because of the horrendous shooting and volume). Rose at 5th and it will probably go up not down, regardless of eFG%.

[EvanZ]

I think the interesting question here is how do you balance quality of shots (or efficiency in production) and quantity of shots when measuring the value of an individual? With a 24 second shot clock, someone on the team eventually has to shoot. Sometimes, there isn't a good shot to be taken, and a team's "star" (Durant, LeBron, Carmelo, etc) is given the burden of the difficult field goal attempt. Quality and quantity are not independent. Perhaps Carmelo goes too far and takes many shots when he should pass. Where do we draw the line? How do we identify the bad vs good choice in shot attempt, pass etc?

There are quite a lot of things that can be done to begin to address these issues. Here are the things I've tried in the past:

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/04/ ... g-seasons/

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/02/ ... of-coffee/

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2011/12/ ... -by-psams/

[steveshea]

There are quite a lot of things that can be done to begin to address these issues. Here are the things I've tried in the past:

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/04/ ... g-seasons/

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2012/02/ ... of-coffee/

http://www.d3coder.com/thecity/2011/12/ ... -by-psams/

Thanks for the links. Looking at the first one, there is a lot of overlap between what you have measured as the best scoring seasons with respect to production and efficiency and our attempt at quantifying the best offensive seasons (including assists) with respect to production and efficiency. We call our stat EOP+ (Efficient Offensive Production, or EOP, adjusted for different scoring rates in different eras).

We looked at 1977-78 through 2012-13. Jordan's 89,88 and 90 seasons ranked 2,3, and 4. James' 09 season was 10th, and Bryant's 06 was 15th. These all also rated well in your measure. Of course, it is not surprising that Jordan rates well on an offensive measure, but perhaps it's interesting that we agree on which seasons were the best.

[Mike G]

When Wilt Chamberlain set the mark for FG% in a season, 1972-73, he had zero FG in his last 2 regular season games. Maybe he didn't attempt any shots, nor miss any.

[Mike G]

Best eFG% for a given number of attempts. When there are ties, only the earliest entry is shown.

Code: Select all

.best shooter      yr    eFG%    FGA
Tyson Wheeler     1999  1.500      1
Mike Peplowski    1995  1.000      5
Steve Scheffler   1997   .857      7
Amir Johnson      2006   .800     10
Lorenzo Williams  1998   .765     17
Jelani McCoy      1999   .737     76
Wilt Chamberlain  1973   .727    586
Wilt              1967   .683   1150
Kareem            1980   .604   1383
Shaq              1994   .599   1591
Kareem            1971   .577   1843
Kareem            1972   .574   2019
Wilt              1963   .528   2770
Wilt              1962   .506   3159

Wilt owns both ends of the tradeoff continuum, over 100 FGA in a season. Jelani's fine season was about 2 games for Wilt.