Attempt to improve FG% numbers

[siedemnastka]

Hi,
below, i'll link to an article containing a list of best mid-range shooters in the nba, season 2012/13.

I think it's cool by itself.
However, I do sometimes have a hard time judging players by ther FG% numbers. why?
- shoot a 70-ft 3-pointer late in a period and your %s go down,
- go for '2 for 1' with a quick 3 and your %s go down,
- as a primary ballhandler, often find yourself in a situation where the shot clock is running out and attempting any kind of shot at all becomes an issue, and your %s go down.

Is Kobe generally shitty in deciding whether to attempt a mid-range jumper? Or are his numbers affected negatively by many situations where there's no better option available, and Kobe's ability to shoot a decent percentage on those difficult shots is actually great.

How to answer this question? We need a number more reflective of player's actual decisions.
I believe all* of the shots taken with a lot of time left on the shot clock fall into this category.
- if you're attempting a three with 15 seconds left on the clock, it's on you.
- if you're attempting a low-percentage mid-range jumper with 9 seconds left on the clock and LeBron James basically hugging you, it's on you.
- however, if your inefficient shot comes when there's no time for a better option, i'd be cautious judging you.

Below you'll find my article. It containts numbers not only on mid-range jumpshots, but also on 3-pointers (what do OKC often do in late-clock situations? they hand the ball to KD so that he can attempt a difficult shot which affects his %s).
I basically create FG% numbers on shots taken early in the shot clock and compare them with FG% on other attempts.

http://sharetext.org/Bm8a

It's not very sophisticated and please let me know if I'm reinventing the wheel, which is certainly a strong possibility. If you find this stuff interesting though, also let me know and I'll prepare sth more on previous seasons.
and follow me on http://twitter.com/siedemnastkaNBA . I've just started tweeting in English.

[Mike G]

Hey, welcome and try to hang out here. This is fascinating stuff.
I'd say it's good that you discard data from the final minute of quarters. If you should compile these shots separately, then you could compare players' shooting in clutch/desperation/garbage time. For what that may be worth.

I've always wanted to see % of players' misses which are O-rebounded. This could be recycled back into the FG%, in some sense. Josh Smith last year shot just 28% on early midrange shots, and his misses were OReb only 12.5% of the time? That's phenomenally bad on both counts.

Why do you only list ORb% for 'early' shots? If we can compare FG% and ORb% for both early and late shots, we might guess at what players should do differently.

In your final table, you list some shooters from the '90s. How did you get PBP for those years?

[siedemnastka]

I'm glad you liked it.

Why do you only list ORb% for 'early' shots? If we can compare FG% and ORb% for both early and late shots, we might guess at what players should do differently.

ORb% was not central to my little article. Just a "why not?" thing on the side that would potentially make it a bit more interesting to you guys.

It doesn't really make any theoretical sense that I included ORb% on early shots (although, i did include ORb% on all mid-range shots). It was just a *little* easier to program and as I said, wasn't key anyway.

ORb% is highly dependent on those shooters' teammates and their team's strategy. These numbers do probably demand more work before I would consider them really interesting.

In your final table, you list some shooters from the '90s. How did you get PBP for those years?

I only use data from last 2-3 seasons from the 90s. It's all available on Nba.com.