Most "Above Average" Player

[italia13calcio]

This has been a little project of mine for a while. Using the SportVu data I've essentially found the league average for all the categories which it has made public on NBA.com (shooting, rebounding, passing, rim defense) and then found which players contribute the most to their team above what an average player would contribute. I've written out my methodology in much greater detail on my new blog: http://www.aabstats.weebly.com

Anyways, I'm posting here for two reasons. One is to plead with people to review my methodology and see if they agree with it. There are certainly a lot of questionable methods I use.

The other is to share my list of top MVP candidates based on this stat. If you think about it, this stat is geared towards answering the MVP question: it literally calculates which players add the most to their team above an average player, ie which players are most valuable. My top ten is below. It's important to realize that this does not account for wins, and I've done it on a cumulative basis and not a per game basis. The reason for that is that if a player misses games he is less valuable to his team since he didn't play. PAA stand for points above average.

1. Kevin Durant - 188 PAA
2. LeBron James - 165 PAA
3. Stephen Curry - 164 PAA
4. Chris Paul - 146 PAA
5. LaMarcus Aldridge - 133 PAA
6. Andre Drummond - 124 PAA
7. Dwight Howard - 123 PAA
8. Carmelo Anthony - 118 PAA
9. Paul George - 116 PAA
10. Ty Lawson - 114 PAA

I welcome all questions, criticisms, etc

[Bobbofitos]

Kevin Love and Roy Hibbert are conspicuously absent

[italia13calcio]

I wouldn't say Roy Hibbert is conspicuously missing. I just looked at some other top ten lists and he's not on them so I don't think that he is a big omission. Kevin Love on the other hand definitely is. By my model he's all the way down 24th. How? His defense is atrocious (worst in the league). His rebounding is solid, but places him at 8th, a far cry from his league leading rate with regular stats. His passing is good for a big man, but nothing spectacular. And his shooting is pretty average in everything except catch and shot shots, in which he ranks in the top twenty.
Furthermore, the aspects of the game I don't have (namely perimeter defense and turnovers) wouldn't likely help his cause.
I may try to figure out a way to include record and teammates ability, since those are a large part of what voters look at for an MVP candidate. Those would probably help him, since the t-wolves have been decent while Love's teammates have been awful.

After I'm more confident about my methodology, I plan to look at players on an individual basis and break down where the've been good and where they haven't. I'll keep you guys posted for that.

[mbosset]

Are all values rated equally? Not saying this is right or wrong but some would argue that passing is not as important of a skill for big men as rebounding is. Since for most teams post are not required to facilitate the offense as much as they are required to rebound and play defense.

[italia13calcio]

Yes, all are equally rated. The way it works though is that big men who aren't called upon to pass much aren't affected either way - that is, they're value added is basically zero. Because this places equal emphasis on both the quantity and the quality of actions, if a player doesn't do a certain thing much then they aren't effected heavily either way. Therefore, big men don't see their rating changed much by passing or outside shooting (unless it's a Kevin Love type player) and guards don't see their rating changed much by interior shot defense and close shots.

Does that answer your question?

[italia13calcio]

Just updated the site to reflect a small change in the methodology that I made.
Top five are the same as before, so not a big change.

I'm looking for suggestions on who to do the first Individual Player Report on. If you have any suggestions let me know either here or in the comments on the site.

Happy holidays.

[v-zero]

I'd be very interested to see an in depth look at KLove, given your comments above and his odd placement at present.

[italia13calcio]

Just got back from an extended vacation due to the winter storm, and I quickly updated the modified stats. Whether due to the changes or to his torrid play of late (31 ppg, 50% + from the field) KLove has jumped up to number five. I'll update the stats tomorrow to make sure there weren't any glitches (there sometimes are) and then post an in depth look at him.

Really quick, the top twenty players with the new changes are in order: Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Love, Serge Ibaka, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Robin Lopez, Klay Thompson, Isiah Thomas, Ty Lawson, Damian Lillard, Arron Afflalo, Andrew Bogut, and Nicolas Batum.

PAA seems to be more like win shares than PER in terms of the top players. The main flaw I see in PAA so far is that it doesn't account for perimeter defense, only defense at the rim, which leads to defensive big men being higher than usual. SportVu data tracks steals, but I am still trying to figure out a way to determine steals above average. If anyone has any ideas about that let me know.

[italia13calcio]

New IPR on Kevin Love up. He's now slipped down to seventh overall, but is fifth on a per game basis.

http://aabstats.weebly.com/1/post/2014/ ... -love.html

[italia13calcio]

Made a few tweaks to the model, now includes steals. New top twenty:

Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, LeBron James, Kevin Love, Serge Ibaka, Paul George, Andre Drummond, Dirk Nowitzki, Isaiah Thomas, Klay Thompson, Ty Lawson, Robin Lopez, Monta Ellis, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Andrew Bogut, Wesley Matthews, James Harden, Manu Ginobili.

[nbacouchside]

Is there a reason you are only posting the rankings here and not on the website? Or maybe they are there and I just can't seem to find them?

[italia13calcio]

I wasn't posting a top 20 list on the website because a) I am still fiddling around with the model and don't want to make anything 'official' and b) I just got back a few days ago from vacation and I didn't have my computer with me so I wouldn't have been able to consistently update them.

Having said that, I will try to get a top 20 (or 30 or however many) list up within the week, and will try to update it at least once a week.

[italia13calcio]

Just updated the site. It now includes top 25 rankings, top 5 five rankings of every position, top five rookies, bottom five players, and more. All can be found by going to the site and clicking on the link on the sidebar that says "Rankings". I'm also trying to find a player to do the next in depth look at. I'm currently leaning towards doing LeBron, since he's a 'low' four overall, but if you have any other preferences just let me know.

[colts18]

Have you tried using synergy defensive stats in your stat?

[italia13calcio]

No... Are they available to the public?