It's all an exercise in sample size really. We could use his exact split, in which case you're looking at 1-1 on open catch and shoot shots when taken above the break but that's useless because of the sample size. Or you could use JR's overall 3pt%, which is less detailed and doesn't account for his splits but has a much larger sample. The numbers I mentioned earlier with the difference in shot defense for JR had a decent sample (60+ fga's for contested vs. 120+ for open) so I would use that 4% difference in contested vs. open shots in the adjustment.steveshea wrote: On JR's shot % here, I just think this is an example where you could make a compelling case in either direction. There seems to be as much evidence to suppose he's about 30% as there is to push to 44%. This is important because our evaluation of JR's decision heavily hinges on whether or not we believe NY can get a comparable shot (in terms of make %) with 3 seconds on the clock.
Since I don't have the data for this year- my estimation for JR making an open shot would be:
in the sample I used, about 2/3s of his shots from 3 were contested, so if assuming that split again, JR has about 232 contested 3s this year vs. 116 open 3s. Then estimating that 4.2% difference and accounting for the 2/3 shots being contested, he'd have approximately a 37.6% FG% on open shots from 3 this year. This would be making 2 assumptions: 1) his contested/open shot ratio remained the same- probably fair due to having a somewhat large enough sample 2) the 4.2% difference is the true difference for JR in regards to open vs. contested 3s- again, based on over 60 fga's for open shots