I would think that shot sequencing affects defensive behavior somewhat but I don’t know how much. I’d think that shot sequencing could affect offensive performance as well.
So, for those with the data, coding skills and computing power, what 2-3 prior shot sequences (categorized as inside, mid-range and 3 point shots and maybe also categorized as taken by a backcourt or front court player) for the league or a team are most likely to lead to: a shot at the rim / a trip to the line? What 2-3 prior shot sequences are most likely to lead to an open 3 point shot? And the highest overall EPV? In the new world of big data and big data analysis, these seem like obvious early questions to get answered.
What 2-3 prior shot sequences are most likely to lead to a non-shot possession (stolen, blocked or offensive foul drawn)? (I chose this sequence length to simplify the analysis and because I assume that the impact of shot sequencing is pretty short-term.)
What 3-4 shot sequences (including the final shot in the sequence) have the highest and lowest average yield overall?
What 3-4 shot sequences are the most common overall? Which teams have the most and least consistent own and opponent play sequencing? Is there a positive or negative correlation between high or low consistency of play sequencing and overall EPV or open shots? In the regular season or playoffs? What teams allow the most and least consistent shot sequences by offenses and the sequences that they most or least use or want?
What 3-4 shot sequences are the most common in the final 2-5 minutes of games? Which are best and worst?
How does shot sequencing patterns vary by the PGs on a team? By the average age of teams, degree of continuity of main rotation, years with a particular coach?
Are east and west fairly similar on all this or notably different in some ways?
How does shot sequencing change on average given scoreboard situation, in game FG%s by distance, home / away, facing good/ average / poor defenses or shot defenses, rate fouls called, etc?
If one can do all that, can you add heavily contested vs lightly or not contested?
Can it be taken down to more particular shot locations (especially the 3 point shots)?
Can you look at exactly how plays run to get the most desirable shots?
I thought of all this in terms of half-court play but perhaps the influence of transition play can be added in and studied as well.
What were the most used and most and least successful shot sequences for recent title-winners in the playoffs?
On average how does shot sequencing change as teams move from above average to elite?
Which team’s shot sequencing optimizes their particular shooting talent mix the most / least?
Which players perform better in more consistent shot sequences than less consistent ones? What can one learn from that which can be applied to lineup construction, rotation sequencing and player acquisition?
Which players have the most / least consistency of shot sequences? What degree of consistency do you typically see when a “star” offensive player (frontcourt or backcourt) is on the court or 2 or more such teammates are out there? How disruptive of consistency are high (and maybe very low) usage players on average and to what net scoreboard effect?
What can the NBA learn from the NFL or MLB about play sequencing and coach / player sequential behavior? How often can you go to your best sequences without prompting an effective defensive correction?
What sequences do the Houston Rockets and Rio Grande Vipers use most and /or for best effect? Similar? How different from other teams especially the Heat and Spurs? How different are the Pacers, Thunder, Blazers, Clippers, etc. from these two?
What is the best sequence of sequences on average? What sequences were used in the top 5-10 best offensive games in a season or in the playoffs for a particular team or anywhere in the league? How about a detailed analysis of shot sequencing thru a finals series? What changes if any were planned? What worked, what didn’t?
How much have the best coaches and PGs actually thought thru these issues? How good are their thoughts or instincts? How likely is it that one can influence these? What would be the best way to do it? Should teams just focus on changing shot distributions or does it make sense to think about changing shot sequences too?
What else would you suggest doing on this topic?
Could one apply machine learning to find even better patterns and defensive response patterns?
(The shot sequences could be for any possible grouping within the overall game sequence or maybe the possibilities are simplified by looking at those sequences that are initiated after a play stoppage and then the next set, next set, etc. until the next stoppage.)