Since Stotts is talking in generalities here and not about any specific player, then I think it's safe to say he's just wrong. I've done the research on this. Vantage tracks open shots as no defender within 5 feet and most open mid-range shots fall in between 45-50%. Obviously it varies depending on the zone (I've broken it down by zone and shot defense) but the highest open FG% was at the Left Hash, where it's a 53% shot.AcrossTheCourt wrote: By the way, I just read this:What are his source? What do you think of that?Stotts takes it one step further, suggesting that dismissing midrange shots is a fatal strategy. “It’s not easy getting to the basket, and it’s not easy getting open shots in this league,” he says. “Half of the guys in the league, I would not want to leave open at 15 feet. An open midrange shot is a quality shot in this league. Teams basically make twice as many shots if they’re uncontested. If they’re contested, they make 30 percent; if they’re uncontested, they make 60 percent.”
http://grantland.com/features/portland- ... -aldridge/
Also, his numbers seem to be speaking in generalities, which I assume indicates he hasn't done the research. Again, wrong. There is a big difference between uncontested and contested but thats at the basket where it's around 20%. In the mid-range/3 area, it's about 10%, sometimes less. 30% is a bit extreme.
FYI, the %'s are broken down by shot defense for threes in this article: http://blog.cacvantage.com/2014/01/defending-three.html
The splits aren't much different for mid-range shots.
Now if he wants to talk about specific players, that's a different debate. Obviously players are going to have different splits from the league. For example, I believe Bosh was around 58% on open mid-range shots, obviously much higher than the league.
How do you want to define open? From what we do have (defender not within 5 feet), the %'s are around 45-50%, with the Left Hash being 53%. Now maybe Chris Bosh shooting at the Left Hash is at 60% but I wouldn't say that for the whole league.Mike G wrote:I'm guessing it's rather a description of the extremes. Seldom is a player truly wide open at 15', unless he's an incompetent shooter. League-wide, such shots might be made at 60%, with many players doing better than that.
And not that often does someone have to take a seriously contested shot at that distance. At mid-range, you can usually give it up to a teammate further out or closer in. At some level of 'contestedness', due in part to the clock, players shoot <30%.
Players and teams have always and will always take what the defense allows. Has there been a successful team that swarms the arc and protects the rim, while literally giving opponents the open mid-range shot?
Yeah, I think there's no doubt there's varying degrees of contestedness, as you can see that with the shot clock numbers.
Well the Rockets D-League team has been trying out that on offense (no mid-range shots) and I believe they're one of the most efficient D-League teams. Also, has anyone tried what you've said? Furthermore, I think it's more difficult to swarm BOTH the rim and the arc. Pacers might be the best example of that. From a few weeks ago:
I'd argue the best defenses are able to do both obviously but they have to be weak somewhere right? If it means you can swarm both the rim and 3 point shot but give up open mid-range shots, I think it makes sense. Problem is I think it's more difficult to swarm both the rim and arc then anyone realizes.