Mike G wrote:Player chemistry is a hard thing to predict. While it may be possible to see that Irving would be more valuable on a different team, it's still a tough sell to give up "more value" to get him.
GM's have staffs of scouts and analysts who study this stuff for a living. It's unlikely any of them are told to "get a sexy name, even if we have to give up more than we're getting".
With Irving, the Cavs have probably less than 1% chance of a Ring within 10 years. Trading him, I'd say it's still less than 1%.
Well... a lot of this comes from the owners, a lot of whom indeed seem to have the mindset of "Ooo... shiny!!!" when making trades like this
I could see a trade like ORL dealing their high pick for Kyrie. I feel like ORL wants to start winning next year. Also if the Lakers almost for sure would give their pick for Kyrie (as he'd then be a springboard for other FAs), albeit their pick may not be high enough to appease CLE
Irving's RAPM estimate was -2.5 in year 1, then -1.5 both of the last 2 seasons. His SPM this season is -1.1. Year 1 or 2 RAPM is usually low but who has been -1.5 in year 3 and gone on to be +2 (minimum criteria for a simple "star" to me) or better by year 5? I could hunt for that later maybe. JE or anyone else have a database set already for an easy search of that kind of question?
His winshares per 48 has barely budged up so far in his young career and is currently just at .135.
I'd certainly listen to trade offers or better yet would try to fashion the best one I could get, hopefully mostly or all young rookie contract players and / or draft picks since they have no chance of a title in next 2-3 seasons.
There about 10 ten teams who might have serious interest in Irving. Given that no one should or probably will trade for him soon unless they can re-sign him and that the Cavs would ask a lot and few have it, I'd guess the most likely candidates would be NY (maybe in a multi-team deal involving Anthony), Orlando, Atlanta and maybe Sacramento. Much more likely the Cavs keep him or re-sign and trade 2+ years down the road.