6th Man, 2014

[Mike G]

Not sure, but I think the 6th Man award goes to someone who has started less than half his team's games. Or is it less than half of the games he's been in?
In any case, it's probably more impressive to be closer to zero starts. And some of these who are over 50% now may be under by year's end -- Reggie Jackson?

To be systematic about it, of players who have started less than 60% of their games (GS%), I've sorted by eWins projected to the full season (e82) and included the per-minutes rates : eW/484 min, PER, and WinShares/48 (from b-r.com)

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e82      player        mpg    GS%    tm     e484     PER    ws48
6.8    Crawford,Jamal   31    .35    LAC    1.30    17.8    .123
6.0    Jackson,Reggie   29    .54    Okl    1.23    14.9    .088
5.8    Gibson,Taj       29    .15    Chi    1.17    16.1    .120
5.2    Morris,Markieff  25    .00    Phx    1.22    18.4    .142
5.0    Henson,John      22    .47    Mil    1.35    18.1    .091

4.9    Blatche,Andray   20    .13    Brk    1.47    19.8    .115
4.8    Ginobili,Manu    19    .04    SAS    1.52    19.4    .162
4.7    Oladipo,Victor   32    .56    Orl     .88    13.9    .030
4.5    Evans,Tyreke     21    .00    NOP    1.26    16.5    .045
4.4    Kanter,Enes      25    .46    Uta    1.05    15.6    .058

e82      player        mpg    GS%    tm     e484     PER    ws48
4.4    Belinelli,Marco  25    .40    SAS    1.03    15.6    .140
4.4    Collison,Darren  23    .33    LAC    1.11    16.3    .132
4.2    Carter,Vince     24    .00    Dal    1.05    16.3    .110
4.1    Augustin,D.J.    19    .26    Chi    1.25    15.4    .144
4.1    Hill,Jordan      19    .35    LAL    1.24    18.0    .135

4.0    Burks,Alec       27    .15    Uta     .87    15.8    .074
4.0    Mills,Patty      18    .02    SAS    1.30    18.9    .170
4.0    Lin,Jeremy       25    .56    Hou     .93    14.0    .099
3.8    Diaw,Boris       24    .34    SAS     .95    14.9    .128
3.8    Koufos,Kosta     18    .41    Mem    1.24    16.6    .119

mpg are minutes divided by team games.

[Crow]

The last 8 6th man award winners have played 30+ minutes and scored 14+ points per game. Only Crawford and Oladipo on this list meet both criteria. Oladipo has almost started 60% of his games and is a rookie. It would be surprising to me if anyone but Crawford won this award this season. Markieff Morris might finish second and might have an outside shot to win, in part because Crawford won it in 2009-10. Several players won it twice long ago but not in last 20 years.

[Mike G]

Interesting. But if R Jackson doesn't start any more games, now that Westbrook is back, he'll still have just 30 starts on the year.
And an argument could be made that a good 6th man (or 7th, etc) can start when needed. In fact, any above-avg player should start somewhere; coming off the bench is a temporary situation for most quality players.

He goes 29 mpg and is averaging 13.4 pts.
Thunder are 22-8 when he starts, 22-7 when he doesn't and Westbrook is playing.

It's actually very easy to look up prime 6th-man candidates: http://bkref.com/tiny/i9A4F
In the last 20 years, Ginobili has 4 of the top 8 WS seasons by non-starters.
Sort by Season to view annual lineups.

[Crow]

Jackson will probably get some consideration. Not sure if there is a set limit on games started vs off the bench.

[Mike G]

It's very, very close, but the guy on top also started very few games.
Last year's winner JR Smith started half his games, but not half of the Knicks' games.

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eWins   per36 rates   tm    GS   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
5.77   Gibson,Taj     Chi    8   82   29  .516   18.7   8.9   1.4    .6   2.4  1.5   1.19
5.73   Crawford,Jamal LAC   24   69   30  .547   23.8   2.7   4.1   1.0   2.4   .2   1.33
5.71   Evans,Tyreke   NOP   22   72   28  .495   18.7   6.4   6.1   1.5   3.3   .3   1.37
5.64   Jackson,Reggie Okl   36   80   29  .521   17.8   5.2   5.7   1.3   2.8   .1   1.20
5.53  Morris,Markieff Phx    0   81   27  .553   19.2   8.1   2.4   1.1   2.5   .8   1.25

5.15   Ginobili,Manu  SAS    3   68   23  .581   22.2   4.6   6.7   1.6   3.2   .3   1.60
5.04   Augustin,D.J.  Chi    9   61   31  .565   21.8   2.6   5.7   1.0   2.4   .1   1.31
4.72   Kanter,Enes    Uta   37   80   27  .517   17.0  10.6   1.2    .5   2.5   .7   1.07
4.70  Collison,Darren LAC   35   80   26  .565   17.6   3.3   5.7   1.6   2.4   .2   1.10
4.66   Smith,J.R.     NYK   37   74   33  .523   17.1   4.7   3.2   1.0   1.7   .3    .93

eWins   per36 rates   tm    GS   G   mpg   Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   Stl   TO   Blk   e484
4.46   Henson,John    Mil   23   70   27  .535   15.5   9.8   2.0    .8   2.3  2.4   1.16
4.40   Blatche,Andray Brk    7   73   22  .523   19.0   8.6   2.5   1.6   2.5   .8   1.31
4.40 Varejao,Anderson Cle   29   65   28  .519   11.4  13.3   2.6   1.4   1.5   .6   1.18
4.38   Carter,Vince   Dal    0   81   24  .532   17.8   5.1   3.7   1.1   1.9   .6   1.07
4.31  Belinelli,Marco SAS   25   80   25  .599   19.1   4.1   3.3    .9   1.7   .1   1.04

4.22   Mills,Patty    SAS    2   81   19  .584   21.8   3.9   3.5   1.5   1.4   .2   1.34
4.15   Burks,Alec     Uta   12   78   28  .535   18.5   4.4   3.1   1.1   2.5   .2    .92
4.08   Waiters,Dion   Cle   24   70   30  .502   19.9   3.5   3.4   1.1   2.8   .2    .95
4.02   Mozgov,Timofey Den   30   82   22  .570   16.0  10.8   1.2    .5   2.5  1.7   1.10
4.00   Lin,Jeremy     Hou   33   71   29  .559   17.0   3.4   5.7   1.2   3.2   .4    .94

During the season, I don't even notice that, for example, Varejao isn't starting. Or that Markieff started 0 games.

[Mike G]

The top 20 in Win Shares, along with WS/48 and PER from b-r.com; and my own stuff.

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. player          tm    WS    WS/48   PER   e484  eWins
Morris,Markieff  Phx   6.41   .143   18.4   1.25   5.53
Augustin,D.J.    Chi   5.97   .154   16.2   1.31   5.04
Andersen,Chris   Mia   5.96   .205   18.5   1.05   3.03
Belinelli,Marco  SAS   5.88   .140   15.0   1.04   4.31
Collison,Darren  LAC   5.87   .136   16.2   1.10   4.70

Gibson,Taj       Chi   5.74   .117   16.0   1.19   5.77
Ginobili,Manu    SAS   5.70   .176   20.0   1.60   5.15
Mills,Patty      SAS   5.55   .175   18.7   1.34   4.22
Varejao,Anderson Cle   5.41   .144   17.0   1.18   4.40
Crawford,Jamal   LAC   5.32   .122   17.3   1.33   5.73

. player          tm    WS    WS/48   PER   e484  eWins
Wright,Brandan   Dal   5.12   .227   23.5   1.36   3.05
Webster,Martell  Was   5.05   .112   11.5    .49   2.20
Jackson,Reggie   Okl   4.94   .104   15.4   1.20   5.64
Diaw,Boris       SAS   4.94   .120   14.1    .93   3.78
Plumlee,Mason    Brk   4.68   .176   19.0   1.22   3.20

Mozgov,Timofey   Den   4.55   .123   16.7   1.10   4.02
Green,Draymond   GSW   4.45   .119   12.7    .78   2.89
Hill,Jordan      LAL   4.41   .141   19.3   1.26   3.90
Lin,Jeremy       Hou   4.41   .103   14.3    .94   4.00
Singler,Kyle     Det   4.38   .090   11.8    .40   1.94

. not top 20:     tm    WS    WS/48   PER   e484  eWins
Carter,Vince     Dal   4.32   .105   15.9   1.07   4.38
Smith,J.R.       NYK   3.68   .073   14.0    .93   4.66
Blatche,Andray   Brk   3.68   .109   18.8   1.31   4.40
Henson,John      Mil   3.25   .084   17.9   1.16   4.46
Burks,Alec       Uta   3.20   .070   15.8    .92   4.15
Evans,Tyreke     NOP   3.08   .073   18.4   1.37   5.71
Kanter,Enes      Uta   2.23   .050   15.6   1.07   4.72
Waiters,Dion     Cle   1.60   .037   14.0    .95   4.08

Of the top 20, 12 are the same; the other 8 from my list are at bottom.