Daryl Morey’s D-League Plan to Do Away With Midrange Shots

[rlee]

http://basketballintelligence.wordpress ... ueceltics/

[Crow]

Part of the plan or the plan's results is that the Vipers are also #1 on offensive rebounding % and 3rd best on own turnover rate. They are only 5th best on 3pt FG% at 36. 1%, The strategy is probably still worthwhile at 35% but might get much less so at 34%. Rockets at 35.4% with a 3ptA frequency rate of 32.5. If they went above 40% 3ptA frequency rate I would expect the 3pt FG% to drop but I don't know if it would be closer to 35% or 34% or below. Only a test in the NBA will really answer this question. Houston shot more 3s and a higher percentage last season. How much of the declines are from change in personnel and their performance versus defensive adjustment and greater defensive effort and impact to limit the 3pt game? 15 teams have averaged 25+ 3ptAs per game. the median FG% is short of 37%. Someone will probably take 30+ 3ptA per game soon. They will probably stay over 35%. The expansion of 3ptA per game both league average and maximum case will probably expand as long at the line stays where it is and the 3pt FG% stays above 35%. Up to the defenses to try to get it under 35%.


IMO, awarding 3 foul shots for a foul of a three point shooter is excessive. I do not think a 3pt attempt that gets fouled should have an expected value better than any other play outcome except a made 3 pointer. You should reward 3 point success but I think it is too generous to award 3 foul shots for an attempt. Just give 2 like any other attempted but unsuccessful fouled shot attempt.

[Crow]

Small update.

I stumbled upon the information that the Vipers only shot in the low 20%s from 3 in the 2013 NBDL championship series. They still won because they did other things well.

The Rockets shoot more 3s per game in the playoffs last time than the regular season but 2 %pts worse at a bit under 35%. Will watch to see what happens this time.

[rlee]

btw - here are the links to the three days we ran Vipers stories at basketball Intelligence:

http://basketballintelligence.wordpress ... icksdraft/

http://basketballintelligence.wordpress ... y-assists/

http://basketballintelligence.wordpress ... ach-thibs/

[Crow]

The Rockets shoot more 3s per game in the playoffs last time than the regular season but 2 %pts worse at a bit under 35%. Will watch to see what happens this time.

Rignt now in playoffs 3pt rate is down over 15% compared and 3pt FG% is down to 31%, hurting overall FG% and making it below league playoff average. Bad series or strategy? It didn't work for Houston last time either but this time it is much worse, so far (small sample size but that is what a series is.)