Winning percentages associated with team stats in 2013-4

[Crow]

https://chiningchang.wordpress.com/2014/06/20/post-1/

3pt FG% more helpful than attempts, offensive rebounding (at least off reb totals) pretty negative, steals hardly mattered (in face of the talk about how important steals are to team wins and draft pick future success?), spending more and being older look like generally successful strategies.

[Mike G]

OReb% has -.32 correlation with FG%.
Bad team shooting is likely a bad team W%, but they often crash the offensive glass.

[Statman]

OReb% has -.32 correlation with FG%.
Bad team shooting is likely a bad team W%, but they often crash the offensive glass.

Yeah, I think this is a bit the correlation, also with steals.

Bad teams often don't shoot as well or efficiently - so maybe the coach tries to get big guys in there that can get those O rebounds to make up for the poor shooting?

Bad defensive team coaches KNOW that they're a bad defensive team - so maybe schemes/players are utilized that are riskier to get more steals because if the offense is allowed to work for their shot there's a good chance for success? Great defensive teams don't have to take such risks - steals happen if they happen in the scheme, not by risks outside of/extending the scheme.

[Statman]

OReb% has -.32 correlation with FG%.
Bad team shooting is likely a bad team W%, but they often crash the offensive glass.

Actually - looking at the chart - I THINK team TOTALS are being used (not ORB%) - which would completely explain the negative correlation - BAD teams shoot worse, many more OReb opportunities. It would also give better defensive teams better D rebound totals.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think that's what's going on here.

[Crow]

The chart does use off. reb. totals as I tried to indicate.

[Mike G]

That's correct, as Crow observed earlier. I looked at correlations with OReb%, since that would not by definition indicate more missed shots.

[Statman]

The chart does use off. reb. totals as I tried to indicate.

Sorry Crow - missed it.

[Mike G]

From this page: http://www.basketball-reference.com/lea ... misc_stats
Correlations with SRS, 2013-14

Code: Select all

corre   stat
.829    ORtg
.697   -DRtg
.686    eFG%
.671   -Opp eFG%
.539    Age
.505    Attendance
.420    FT/FGA
.336    DReb%
.314   -Opp FT/FGA
.312    3PAr
.284    FTr
.195   -TO%
.134    SOS
.067    Opp TO%
.008    Pace
-.004   OReb%

For a couple of these, there's almost certainly no causation; just correlation.

Over the last 10 seasons:

Code: Select all

correl  stat
.746    ORtg
.713   -DRtg
.672    eFG%
.671   -Opp eFG%
.365    DReb%
.297   -TO%
.250   -Opp FT/FGA
.189    FT/FGA
.090    Opp TO%
-.010   OReb%
-.068   Pace

http://bkref.com/tiny/ZRz0R

[Crow]

Appreciate the crunched data. So for this season the off rtg correlation moved a good amount above historical avg. While def rtg slipped a bit. Would also be interested in comparing for age, 3pt rate and ft/fga, if you are interested too and willing.