Aging curves by team quality tier

[Crow]

I know at least a handful of people reading here have developed aging productivity curves, spm or rapm based. Has anyone divided their data into 2-4 tiers based on average team performance for the dataset used to construct the overall aging performance curve? Are the better teams achieving a disproportionate share of the yr to yr improvement or less of the declines? It would seem likely but I don't know how pronounced it is. Internal or natural development is unlikely to be even, I think. Is there an age segment where their superiority is greatest or weakest? If so that should inform and influence the team's age distribution. The good, average or weak.

[Mike G]

This is fairly tangential, but I found correlations between year-to-year aging and other "miscellaneous statistics" at b-r.com, for teams from 2000 to 2014.

Code: Select all

corr    stat         corr    stat
.288    SRS         -.004   OpTO%
.245    eFG%        -.140    Pace
.165    ORtg        -.166    TO%
.133    3PAr        -.166   Op eFG%
.113    DReb%       -.206    DRtg
.057   FT/FGA       -.227   OpFT/FGA
.038    FTr         -.262    OReb%

The biggest jump in Team Age was the Celtics from 2007 to 2008, from 23.5 to 27.9 avg age; it's also the biggest jump in SRS, from -3.7 to +9.3

A more revealing study would be of age changes and correlations with year-3, year-5 SRS and etc
It could also be done for playoffs.

EDIT: The negative correlations with TO% and opponent rates may be misleading. Since they are better when smaller, lower corr. = improvements.

[Crow]

Interesting to see. Doesn't your last point apply to own turnover rate instead of opponent and all defensive factors or am I turned around?