Possessions following a STL/BLK

[Devin Black]

I noticed this little line in pmaymin's recently posted study:

"For example, we find that if a play starts with a steal, the average points scored increases from 0.83 to 1.04."

What I'm wondering is whether there is any research/data on shooting percentages (FG%, eFG%) in possessions following a steal or a block that is available?

[EvanZ]

There was a study that someone posted here a while back on that subject. I think it was before "the hack". Clearly, steals often lead to transition plays which are among the highest efficiency types of plays. Not sure about blocks, but my guess is the percentages are also higher when the defense gets the rebound.

[Mike G]

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... .php?t=192

Code: Select all

Effic.   Possession start
126.8   Steal
124.5   (2p FG missed, off. reb.)

115.5   (3p FG missed, off. reb.)
112.5   2p FG missed, def. reb.
111.6   Non-steal turnover

110.4   Average

108.4   FT made
107.3   3p FG missed, def. reb.
107.0   2p FG made
106.9   3p FG made

104.7   Start of quarter
103.2   FT missed, def. reb.

Where does one find that the average possession is worth 0.83 points?
Is that a 'play' devoid of any offensive rebound?

[Crow]

Yes, I believe so; that a 'play' devoid of any offensive rebound could average 0.83 points. Simply looking at overall turnover rate and overall TS% (as rough approximations, the specific values for this group of plays could vary a bit) it would seem likely that this value to be close to .83.

[Devin Black]

There was a study that someone posted here a while back on that subject. I think it was before "the hack". Clearly, steals often lead to transition plays which are among the highest efficiency types of plays. Not sure about blocks, but my guess is the percentages are also higher when the defense gets the rebound.

I should have been more clear. That's the only scenario I was referring to in terms of possessions after a block -- when a team blocks a shot and gains possession.

http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/vi ... .php?t=192

Code: Select all

Effic.   Possession start
126.8   Steal
124.5   (2p FG missed, off. reb.)

115.5   (3p FG missed, off. reb.)
112.5   2p FG missed, def. reb.
111.6   Non-steal turnover

110.4   Average

108.4   FT made
107.3   3p FG missed, def. reb.
107.0   2p FG made
106.9   3p FG made

104.7   Start of quarter
103.2   FT missed, def. reb.

Where does one find that the average possession is worth 0.83 points?
Is that a 'play' devoid of any offensive rebound?

Thank you.

And yeah, I would assume they are referring to "play" versus "possession" as Oliver does in BoP

It's in the "Chemistry and synergies in the NBA" thread if you care to ask. Thanks again.