My list of top 50 Greatest NBA players of all-time (Revised)

[D-rell]

you say this about shawn bradley based on what?...

shawn bradley was a very good to excellent defender most of his career...

aside from having watched him, here's just one 3rd party claim to bradley's excellent defense - here's what jordan cohn had to say about him in his books:

94-95 - with bradley in the lineup, sixers opponents shot 46% scored 97 pts/g, went 20-29, without him opp FG% jumped to 51%, pts/g against 111, team went 5-28... he rates bradley's defense as AA...

95-96 - when bradley played 30+ min/g, sixers opponents shot 43%, philly went 17-26, in less than 30 min/g, opponents shot 51%, sixers went 7-33... he rates bradley's defense AAA...

96-97 - he doesn't list any on/off numbers, but rates his defense AAA, the highest he can rate a player in his system (D suspect, C mediocre, B middle of the pack, A first rate, AA big time, AAA top of the line)...

so that's 3 straight years he's got shawn bradley rated as a big time to top of the line defender, and this is early in bradley's career (ages 22-24). if that's not excellent defense i don't know what is...

so my question for you is just what is your statement that bradley was not an excellent overall defender based on?...

But to claim Nance as an elite defender simply off of BPG seems a bit incomplete.

and just who has made this claim? perhaps you should re-read this thread - blocked shots is just part of it, along with watching a player and reading everything about a player you can...

greatest all-time lists are fun to debate - but to "claim" one player is better than another without taking in to full consideration a player's contribution on the defensive side of the floor (aside from ratings that apportion equal defensive contribution towards team defensive rank based solely on minutes played) will skew your list towards offensive minded players...

For one, it seems you don't understand the conceptual difference between Defensive Rating and DBPM.

Defensive Rating differs from plus/minus in that it's predicated on individual "defensive stops" per 100 possessions, or in Oliver's defensive rating "only the buckets scored as a result of [a players] defensive mistakes are counted against him" - BleecherReport

I think you're confusing Oliver's defensive rating w/ DBPM.

Shawn Bradley's Drtg = 100.92 (54th all-time)

That's not bad, but in my defensive ratings I also include "awards" to help serve as a sort of expert 'eye test'. Bradley has no defensive honors in his career.

Obviously, Bradley was an elite shot-blocker, but in my list I consider elite all-time defenders >110, that means:

Bill Russell
Wilt Chamberlain
Hakeem Olajuwon
Tim Duncan
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Ben Wallace
David Robinson
Dwight Howard
Kevin Garnett
Dikembe Mutumbo
LeBron James
Artis Gilmore
John Havlicek
Dennis Rodman
Michael Jordan
Patrick Ewing
Dave DeBusschere
Bobby Jones
Scottie Pippen
Nate Thurmond

In that order. I've only ranked about 150 players, so some prominent defensive specialist are not included, such as Bowen, Battier maybe. Nance is definitely not in this category.

Another important detail in my list that I forgot to mention as far as defensive ratings, is that once the initial ratings are determined, they are then adjusted by position. In other words, guards/SF are then rated against other guards/SF, big men against other big men.

Shawn Bradley's career defensive rating = 97, 1 point lower than Nance, 1 point higher than Chris Webber.

But back to that "position relative" thing in the second step, comparing big men to big men, perimeter players to perimeter players.

Bradley and Alvin Roberston have virtually the same initial defensive rating in my system, but after the "position relative" step is applied:

Alvin Roberston = 104
Shawn Bradley = 97

[schtevie]

D-rell, do you not think your approach has a serious "Ben Wallace problem"? This is to say that defense, generally, is under-weighted in your scheme? Seven of your top twenty defenders don't crack the Top 50 list. The accuracy of that list aside, general evidence suggests that this should not be the case.

[Mike G]

So if 7 of the top 20 defensive players don't make the overall top 50, then 13 do.
Is 13 of 50 a smallish ratio?

Since the DPOY Award has been issued (1983) the top 50 WS seasons range from 21.2 down to 15.6
Among DPOY winners, just 2 -- Jordan '88 and Olajuwon '93 -- are in that top 50.

These guys all played at least 2250 minutes. The 50th best season (>2250 min) in ws/48 in the interval is .249. The 50th best BPM is 7.0. The #50 VORP is 6.9
Just 3 DPOY winners are among each of these 'top 50' seasons.
http://bkref.com/tiny/Or8Ix

[schtevie]

Mike, yes, 13 out of 50 is a smallish ratio (and but one of the problems).

One need not have a strict preference for xRAPM in all statistical matters to believe that this measure speaks more authoritatively than all others about the relative importance of defense, generally and specifically on a positional basis.

If you look at J.E.'s xRAPM estimates of the Top 10 players between 2001 and 2014 what you see is that on average 4.3 of these slots obtained to players who were rated better on defense than on offense. (And this group of players ranked 5th on average, so they weren't below average within the group.) So, if this 14 year stretch provides a frame for one's beliefs (and it should): one should expect great players with primarily defensive reputations to occupy close to half of any Top 50 list.

Then another (secondary) lesson from xRAPM: elite defensive status simply doesn't obtain to smaller players. This, of course, is not to deny relative excellence on a position by position basis, but the best of the best, in terms of influencing the scoreboard, are paint defenders. Period. A single, representative fact (that hopefully I've got right). Between 2001 and 2014, only one player 6'6" and under (who was not a PF/C) has ever had a DxRAPM at or above 4.0. So, Michael Jordan being awarded a DOPY should not be considered evidence of anything except the inadequacies of the electorate.

[bchaikin]

elite defensive status simply doesn't obtain to smaller players.... Michael Jordan being awarded a DOPY should not be considered evidence of anything except the inadequacies of the electorate.

sheer nonsense...

from 80-81 to 85-86, a period of 6 seasons, the milwaukee bucks were the league's top defensive team, allowing just 101.1 pts/100poss. the next best team was the boston celtics at 102.3 pts/100poss allowed. the difference between the pts/100poss allowed of these two teams was also the difference between boston and the 6th best defensive team, the new jersey nets (103.4 pts/100poss allowed)...

i.e. the milwaukee bucks were a dominant defensive team over a long stretch of 6 years...

bucks 6-4 SG sidney moncrief played 16483 minutes during that time, 1/7 of the team's total minutes played and over 6400 more minutes that the bucks player that played the 2nd most minutes. he won not one but two DPOY awards...

he was the key reason that team was dominant defensively for so long, and his rates for steals and blocks were nothing out of the ordinary for SGs of that time...

[schtevie]

Bob, no one should be bothered that you enjoy barking at the moon. Maybe future improvements on J.E.'s numbers will overturn the interpretation I offered, regarding the primacy of size/role paint defense in determining defensive potential, but these data say what they say. And then there is the fact that the interpretation is supported by the basic geometry of the game: the highest quality shots occur around the basket, hence it is rather reasonable to believe that those tasked with the greatest defensive responsibilities (disrupting these shot opportunities) see the greatest reward.

That you are somehow offended about what this implies about Sidney Moncrief is neither here nor there. I'm not saying he wasn't a good defender, and there's nothing obvious to me about the record you cite that suggests that he was an all-time elite defender in plus-minus terms, the issue to which my comments were directed.

[Mike G]

.. 13 out of 50 is a smallish ratio....

Sorry, I misstated it: it's not 13 of 50, it's 13 of 20 'top defenders' who made the top 50.

If 2/3 of the top 20 defensive players and 2/3 of the top 20 offensive players make the overall top 50, that leaves at least 24 spots to be taken by players who are not quite top 20 on either D or O. Most of these are likely top 30-40 on one end or the other; and a few will be just about evenly talented at both ends.

The very best players are of course valuable at both ends. A defensive or offensive specialist generally plays fewer minutes, or for fewer seasons, or both. When his one skillset fades, he becomes a liability.

Michael Jordan being awarded a DOPY should not be considered evidence of anything ..

I can't find the quote, but some NBA guard said the only job as bad as guarding Jordan was being guarded by Jordan. It may have partly been that guarding him was especially tiring, and frustrating; leaving you weak and driftless. Either way, it's a great thing when your star player can be having an off night and still dominate the game, by wreaking havoc on defense.

[Mike G]

Laboriously counted up all the DPOY votes, year by year, that players have received since 1985.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/awa ... .html#dpoy

Vote totals have crept up from 78 to 125 in these years. Roughly 4 per team in the league.
Moncrief won the first 2 awards, but the votes don't seem to be available. If he took 50 votes each time, he's tied with Jordan.

Code: Select all

418  Mutombo    139  Garnett    57  Ibaka     16  Dumars
384  Rodman     118  Robertson  50  Blaylock  15  Marion
375  Olajuwon   114  Noah       46  Chandler  15  Kirilenko
352  B Wallace  106  Bowen      42  Moncrief  14  Ratliff
351  Dwight     106  Pippen     35  LeBron    14  Christie
268  Payton     104  Camby      30  M Gasol   13  T Allen
261  Robinson    90  Artest     23  Shaq      12  E Jones
159  Mourning    68  Cooper     22  Pressey   12  DJ
156  Eaton       68  Bol        20  Battier   11  Hibbert
142  Jordan      61  Duncan     18  Cheeks    11  Outlaw

Others who were at one time considered to be pretty good defenders:

Code: Select all

10  McMillan  4  Sanders     2  Deng       2  Hanzlik
10  Ewing     4  Paul        2  C Hayes    2  Rivers
10  McHale    4  Smoove      2  Sefolosha  2  Stockton
8   DeAndre   4  G Wallace   2  Bogut      1  A Davis
8   George    4  McKey       2  Kidd       1  Tucker
8   Kobe      4  Richardson  2  B Knight   1  G Hill
8   HoGrant   4  Vranes      2  Elie       1  Bogans
8   Buck      4  Lever       2  Fox        1  Rondo
8   DHarper   3  Wade        2  Kemp       1  J O'Neal
7   Iguodala  3  L Hughes    2  Sprewell   1  Q Ross
7   Mason     3  C Robinson  2  Majerle    1  Iverson
6   Oakley    3  Gill        2  Starks     1  M Curry
6   Dunn      2  Bradley     2  Malone      

That's M.R. Richardson, A Bradley, PJ Tucker

[schtevie]

A few replies. Mike, I took your 13 out of 50 in proper context, I believe. There is a very common bias against and confusion about defensive excellence - what certainly obtained when the Sidney Moncriefs and Michael Jordans were winning their DPOY awards and lasting much later still. (To this very day?) Perhaps you've missed a count, but not one vote ever for S. Bradley, but one for A. Iverson?

As for the referenced Jordan anecdote, this to me is illustrative of the general bias/problem. The idea that an offensive player, carrying such a large fraction of the offense, would also have the super-human energy on the defensive end to achieve possession-in/possession-out, realized excellence on defense (as opposed to ability on one stop or another) is...well...far fetched.

And a final point about structural/geometric aspects of defensive potential for non-bigs. Andre Iguodala, the singular, afore-unmentioned 6'6" non-PF/C having achieved a DxRAPM > 4.0, saw this achievement first realized in 2012. What might this recent fact suggest about potential for similar "smalls" in bygone decades? Well, this past decade saw the beginnings of the realization of the potential of the 3-point shot. And analogous to the idea that bigs enjoy an advantage for naturally protecting the high-value paint, nowadays wing defenders can not-quite-but-almost-similarly benefit by protecting a different high-value section of the court.

[fpliii]

Moncrief won the first 2 awards, but the votes don't seem to be available. If he took 50 votes each time, he's tied with Jordan.

Mike - We have the voting numbers up on nbastats.net:

http://nbastats.net/01NBA/11awards/03Defensive.xls

[Mike G]

Thanks, fpliii. I think b-r.com would like to have this info.

Schtevie, supposing there were actually a way of knowing who are the best defensive players in a given sample -- say the 20 best this season -- how many would you suppose are among the 50 best overall this season?

I'd guess about 9 of the top 10, 14 of the top 20, 18 of the top 30, 20 of the top 40, something along those lines.
I'd guess a similar distribution of top offensive players.

This year, the #50 VORP player is at 2.2, and the #50 BPM is 2.0
The #20 DBPM player -- among the top 100 in VORP -- is also 2.2. And 14 of these players are at or above 2.2 VORP. Also, 15 are >2.0 BPM

Players whose lack of offense keeps them out of the top 50 overall BPM : Josh Smith, Robin Lopez, Cody Zeller, Lavoy Allen, David West. In VORP, add Andrew Bogut.

Now, the top 100 (or 150, as d-rell considered) is a limiting sample. If we look for the top BPM among all players with 800+ minutes, we find #20 DBPM = 2.3. This is 216 players.
And now we add Nerlens Noel, Steven Adams, Roy Hibbert, and Andre Roberson to the list of those who don't make the overall top 50 BPM : From this larger selection, just 12 of the top 20 D players make the top 50 overall.

Full disclosure: Among the top 20 OBPM, just 4 are excluded from the BPM>2 club: B Jennings, Lou Williams, I Thomas, and Carmelo.
In the next 10, 3 more are out; in the 30-40 range, only 5 are good enough on defense.
http://bkref.com/tiny/i2kKA

[D-rell]

I've expanded my list of all-time NBA Players to 100 in the OP, under the same criteria.

Due to the way I've setup my formula, one of the steps is to run each players individual box stats and adjust them column by column. It takes a few minutes per player. Here are the players, alphabetically, that I've run through my ranking system:

Adrian Dantley
Al Jefferson
Alex English
Allen Iverson
Alonzo Mourning
Amar'e Stoudemire
Antawn Jamison
Artis Gilmore
Ben Wallace
Bernard King
Bill Russell
Bill Sharman
Billy Cunningham
Bob Cousy
Bob Lanier
Bob McAdoo
Bob Pettit
Bobby Jones
Buck Williams
Carmelo Anthony
Charles Barkley
Chauncey Billups
Chet Walker
Chris Bosh
Chris Mullin
Chris Paul
Chris Webber
Clifford Robinson
Clyde Drexler
Dan Issel
Dave Bing
Dave Cowens
Dave DeBusschere
David Robinson
David Thompson
Dennis Johnson
Dennis Rodman
Deron Williams
Dikembe Mutombo
Dirk Nowitzki
Dolph Schayes
Dominique Wilkins
Dwight Howard
Dwyane Wade
Earl Monroe
Elgin Baylor
Elton Brand
Elvin Hayes
Fat Lever
Gary Payton
George Gervin
George McGinnis
Glen Rice
Glenn Robinson
Grant Hill
Gus Williams
Hakeem Olajuwon
Hal Greer
Horace Grant
Isiah Thomas
Jack Sikma
Jack Twyman
James Worthy
Jason Kidd
Jason Terry
Jermaine O'Neal
Jerry Lucas
Jerry West
Joe Dumars
Joe Johnson
John Havlicek
John Stockton
Julius Erving
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Karl Malone
Kevin Durant
Kevin Garnett
Kevin Johnson
Kevin McHale
Kobe Bryant
Larry Bird
Larry Nance
LeBron James
Lenny Wilkens
Lou Hudson
Magic Johnson
Mark Aguirre
Mark Price
Marques Johnson
Maurice Cheeks
Michael Jordan
Mitch Richmond
Moses Malone
Nate Thurmond
Oscar Robertson
Patrick Ewing
Pau Gasol
Paul Arizin
Paul Pierce
Peja Stojakovic
Pete Maravich
Rasheed Wallace
Ray Allen
Reggie Miller
Rick Barry
Robert Parish
Scottie Pippen
Shaquille O'Neal
Shawn Kemp
Shawn Marion
Sidney Moncrief
Spencer Haywood
Steve Nash
Terry Cummings
Tim Duncan
Tim Hardaway
Tiny Archibald
Tony Parker
Tracy McGrady
Vince Carter
Walt Bellamy
Walt Frazier
Walter Davis
Wes Unseld
Willis Reed
Wilt Chamebrlain
Zelmo Beaty

Each of these 125 or so players contend for the 100 top spots. If you can suggest any other players outside these 125 for me to consider and pass through my rankings, I'd appreciate it. After that I can finalize this top 100 list.

[Mike G]

Since you asked.
Players in my top 100 and not in yours, showing my ranking:

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31   Dolph Schayes      85   Alvan Adams
44   George Mikan       88   Baron Davis
45   Manu Ginobili      90   Wes Unseld
53   Tony Parker        92   Sam Cassell
64   Carlos Boozer      93   Tom Heinsohn
70   Russell Westbrook  94   Bob Dandridge
76   Vlade Divac        96   Maurice Lucas
77   Neil Johnston      97   Sam Jones
82   Lamar Odom         98   Mark Jackson
84   Cliff Hagan       100   Dennis Johnson

A lot of old-timers don't rank very highly in your system, relative to mine. Are you adjusting for prevailing shooting% of the time? Adjusting for the relatively low Ast/FG ratio?
Also, several of these players get a boost in my system due to their playoff excellence. What's your typical importance of playoff minutes?

[D-rell]

Since you asked.
Players in my top 100 and not in yours, showing my ranking:

Code: Select all

31   Dolph Schayes      85   Alvan Adams
44   George Mikan       88   Baron Davis
45   Manu Ginobili      90   Wes Unseld
53   Tony Parker        92   Sam Cassell
64   Carlos Boozer      93   Tom Heinsohn
70   Russell Westbrook  94   Bob Dandridge
76   Vlade Divac        96   Maurice Lucas
77   Neil Johnston      97   Sam Jones
82   Lamar Odom         98   Mark Jackson
84   Cliff Hagan       100   Dennis Johnson

A lot of old-timers don't rank very highly in your system, relative to mine. Are you adjusting for prevailing shooting% of the time? Adjusting for the relatively low Ast/FG ratio?
Also, several of these players get a boost in my system due to their playoff excellence. What's your typical importance of playoff minutes?

Each players box stats are adjusted to 1990s league levels. Some pre-'78 player box stats are unknown. I was able to estimate them by based off the league averages of post-'78 players that played a common position. For instance, I used the position average assist/TOV ratio from the 80s to help predict pre-'78 players TOV. I used position, FT%, and research articles to help with 3pt made/attempted.

Jerry West
3PM = 1951 (1.73 per game)
3PA = 5144 (4.57 per game)
3P% = .379

The step is to apply the LQ, which adjust for the level of competion.

Ex. Competition levels (multiplier) for a SG in 80s is 1.166 (1.00 = average), whereas a SG in the 50s is .583. The average is set by 1990s levels.

The 80s was the most competitive era to play in, the 50s were the weakest. It's another reason why many 50s players do not translate well. The NBA was at its infancy.

But I definitely appreciate your list. I've already ranked a few of the players that you named.

Dolph Schayes = 23.06
Tony Parker = 23.76
Wes Unseld = 22.76
Dennis Johnson = 23.02

I'll try an run some of the other names tonight.

[Mike G]

Interesting that you credit players with 3-pointers they might have made.
And if there had been 3-pointers, the inside game might have opened up more. Dolph Schayes might have been Dirk Nowitzki -- he shot close to .900 FT%.

Do you use a single multiplier for an entire decade? What about the occasional expansion? In 1966 there were 9 teams; in 1968, there were 23 (11 in ABA).
What do you do with ABA stats?

There's a thread on the evolution of league strength, and a table I posted which doesn't indicate that the '80s are necessarily the strongest era.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8803
How did you figure this?

Dolph Schayes = 23.06
Tony Parker = 23.76
Wes Unseld = 22.76
Dennis Johnson = 23.02

Ha. McGinnis is #100 at 23.77