Guard dominance, 2015

[Mike G]

The top few players by just about every measure this year are guards.
Top 3 in Win Shares (adjusted to full schedule) are Harden, Curry, Paul.
Top 4 by VORP are Harden, Curry, Westbrook, Paul

Last time a guard led the league in VORP was 2001, Steve Francis (6.80). Vince Carter was 2nd (6.4)
Chris Paul was tops in WS in 2008 with 17.8 (to LeBron's 15.2); he's also finished 2nd twice (to LeBron).
Before that, it's back to Jordan '97.

Another xyz, this one equal (PER*WS*VORP)^(1/3) gives us a snapshot of roughly the top 5 players every season -- may as well call them superstars. Starting with the end of the Jordan era:

Code: Select all

xyz      1998            PER     WS    VORP
14.7    Karl Malone     27.9    16.4    6.9
13.3    David Robinson  27.8    13.8    6.1
12.8    Michael Jordan  25.2    15.8    5.3
12.0    Tim Duncan      22.6    12.8    6.0
                
xyz      1999            PER     WS    VORP
13.9    Karl Malone     25.6    15.7    6.7
13.9   Shaquille O'Neal 30.6    14.8    5.9
12.8    David Robinson  24.9    13.8    6.1
12.6    Jason Kidd      22.5    13.3    6.7
12.3    Tim Duncan      23.2    14.3    5.6
12.1    Grant Hill      23.9    12.0    6.2
                
xyz      2000            PER     WS    VORP
17.4   Shaquille O'Neal 30.6    18.6    9.3
14.0    Karl Malone     27.1    15.3    6.6
13.6    Gary Payton     23.6    13.9    7.6
12.4    Tim Duncan      24.8    13.0    5.9
12.2    Kevin Garnett   23.6    11.6    6.6
                
xyz      2001            PER     WS    VORP
14.5   Shaquille O'Neal 30.2    14.9    6.8
13.0    Vince Carter    25.0    12.9    6.8
12.3    Ray Allen       22.9    13.7    6.0
12.3    Karl Malone     24.7    13.1    5.8
12.3    Tim Duncan      23.8    13.2    5.9
12.3    Steve Francis   21.6    12.2    7.0
12.1    Tracy McGrady   24.9    12.2    5.9
12.1    Dirk Nowitzki   22.8    14.6    5.3
12.0    Kevin Garnett   23.9    11.8    6.2
                
xyz      2002            PER     WS    VORP
15.7    Tim Duncan      27.0    17.8    8.1
12.9   Shaquille O'Neal 29.7    13.2    5.5
12.9    Kevin Garnett   23.8    12.8    7.0
12.6    Elton Brand     23.6    13.6    6.2
12
11.9    Tracy McGrady   25.1    11.5    5.9
11.8    Paul Pierce     22.3    12.9    5.7
11.7    Gary Payton     22.9    12.6    5.5
                
xyz      2003            PER     WS    VORP
16.2    Tracy McGrady   30.3    16.1    8.7
15.5    Kevin Garnett   26.4    15.6    9.0
15.0    Tim Duncan      26.9    16.5    7.6
14.0    Kobe Bryant     26.2    14.9    7.1
13.6    Dirk Nowitzki   25.6    16.1    6.1
12.7   Shaquille O'Neal 29.5    13.2    5.3
12.1    Shawn Marion    21.3    13.0    6.4
                
xyz      2004            PER     WS    VORP
17.4    Kevin Garnett   29.4    18.3    9.8
12.8    Tim Duncan      27.1    13.1    5.9
12.5   Andrei Kirilenko 22.6    11.6    7.5
12
11.1    Peja Stojakovic 21.8    13.5    4.7
10.7    Sam Cassell     22.8    12.1    4.5
10.6    Kobe Bryant     23.7    10.7    4.7
                
xyz      2005            PER     WS    VORP
16.2    Kevin Garnett   28.2    16.1    9.3
14.8    LeBron James    25.7    14.3    8.8
13.4    Dirk Nowitzki   26.1    15.6    5.9
12.4    Tracy McGrady   22.9    12.0    7.0
12
11.5  Amar'e Stoudemire 26.6    14.6    3.9
11.4    Shawn Marion    21.7    12.5    5.5
11.2    Tim Duncan      27.0    11.2    4.7
11.2  Shaquille O'Neal  27.0    11.0    4.7
10.7    Manu Ginobili   22.3    11.0    5.0
10.7    Dwyane Wade     23.1    11.0    4.8
10.6    Gilbert Arenas  21.3    11.5    4.9
                
xyz      2006            PER     WS    VORP
16.3    LeBron James    28.1    16.3    9.5
14.4    Dirk Nowitzki   28.1    17.7    6.0
14.3    Kevin Garnett   26.8    14.9    7.4
14.1    Kobe Bryant     28.0    15.3    6.5
14.1    Dwyane Wade     27.6    14.4    7.0
13.7    Elton Brand     26.5    14.8    6.5
12.7    Gilbert Arenas  23.8    13.6    6.4
12.7    Shawn Marion    23.6    14.6    5.9
12.1   Chauncey Billups 23.4    15.5    4.9
                
xyz      2007            PER     WS    VORP
14.1    Dirk Nowitzki   27.6    16.3    6.2
13.7    LeBron James    24.5    13.7    7.6
12.9    Tim Duncan      26.1    13.0    6.3
12.2    Kobe Bryant     26.1    13.0    5.3
                
xyz      2008            PER     WS    VORP
16.5    LeBron James    29.1    15.2   10.1
16.2    Chris Paul      28.3    17.8    8.5
12.6    Kobe Bryant     24.2    13.8    6.0
12.2    Kevin Garnett   25.3    12.9    5.5
                
xyz      2009            PER     WS    VORP
19.5    LeBron James    31.7    20.3   11.6
17.6    Chris Paul      30.0    18.3   10.0
16.3    Dwyane Wade     30.4    14.7    9.7
12.3    Brandon Roy     24.0    13.5    5.7
                
xyz      2010            PER     WS    VORP
18.4    LeBron James    31.1    18.5   10.9
14.3    Dwyane Wade     28.0    13.0    8.0
13.5    Kevin Durant    26.2    16.1    5.8
12.0    Dwight Howard   24.0    13.2    5.4
                
xyz      2011            PER     WS    VORP
15.2    LeBron James    27.3    15.6    8.2
12.6    Chris Paul      23.7    13.9    6.1
12.4    Pau Gasol       23.3    14.7    5.6
12.3    Dwight Howard   26.1    14.4    5.0
12.3    Dwyane Wade     25.6    12.8    5.7
12.3    Derrick Rose    23.5    13.1    6.0
                
xyz      2012            PER     WS    VORP
17.3    LeBron James    30.7    18.0    9.4
14.2    Chris Paul      27.0    15.8    6.7
13.1    Kevin Durant    26.2    15.2    5.7
                
xyz      2013            PER     WS    VORP
18.1    LeBron James    31.6    19.3    9.8
16.0    Kevin Durant    28.3    18.9    7.6
12.7    Chris Paul      26.4    13.9    5.6
11.9    James Harden    23.0    12.8    5.7
                
xyz      2014            PER     WS    VORP
16.9    Kevin Durant    29.8    19.2    8.5
15.5    LeBron James    29.3    15.9    8.0
14.1    Kevin Love      26.9    14.3    7.3
12.9    Stephen Curry   24.1    13.4    6.7
11.8    Chris Paul      25.9    12.2    5.2
11.8    James Harden    23.5    12.8    5.4
                
xyz      2015*           PER     WS    VORP
15.2    James Harden    26.7    16.5    7.9
15.1    Stephen Curry   27.5    15.9    7.8
13.3    Chris Paul      24.9    14.6    6.4
13.2    Anthony Davis   31.4    14.0    5.2
13.1  Russell Westbrook 29.8    10.3    7.3

Listed are all players with xyz > 12 (avg 5 per year); and extending the list down to the top guard(s) of each season... And then a few who are very close to a cutoff.
The 2015 WS and VORP extrapolate to these players' teams' 82 games. Davis has played 60% of NOP minutes, Westy has played just 53% of OKC's, and the numbers above assume those for their full season rates.
1999 and 2012 are also scaled to 82 games.

Previous to this season, 2009 was the most guard-heavy Top N (3 of the top 4), for any N.
In 2001 and 2008, it was 2 of the top 3.

[Mike G]

Here are best xyz seasons by each player who has hit the 12.0 'superstar' level since 1998:

Code: Select all

xyz      super          best     PER     WS    VORP    #
19.5    LeBron James    2009    31.7    20.3   11.6   10
17.6    Chris Paul      2009    30.0    18.3   10.0    6
17.4   Shaquille O'Neal 2000    30.6    18.6    9.3    5
17.4    Kevin Garnett   2004    29.4    18.3    9.8    8
16.9    Kevin Durant    2014    29.8    19.2    8.5    4
16.3    Dwyane Wade     2009    30.4    14.7    9.7    4
16.2    Tracy McGrady   2003    30.3    16.1    8.7    3
15.7    Tim Duncan      2002    27.0    17.8    8.1    8
15.2    James Harden    2015    26.7    16.5    7.9    1
15.1    Stephen Curry   2015    27.5    15.9    7.8    2
14.7    Karl Malone     1998    27.9    16.4    6.9    4
14.4    Dirk Nowitzki   2006    28.1    17.7    6.0    5
14.1    Kevin Love      2014    26.9    14.3    7.3    1
14.1    Kobe Bryant     2006    28.0    15.3    6.5    4
13.7    Elton Brand     2006    26.5    14.8    6.5    2
13.6    Gary Payton     2000    23.6    13.9    7.6    1
13.3    David Robinson  1998    27.8    13.8    6.1    2
13.2    Anthony Davis   2015    31.4    14.0    5.2    1
13.1  Russell Westbrook 2015    29.8    10.3    7.3    1
13.0    Vince Carter    2001    25.0    12.9    6.8    1
12.8    Michael Jordan  1998    25.2    15.8    5.3    1
12.7    Gilbert Arenas  2006    23.8    13.6    6.4    1
12.7    Shawn Marion    2006    23.6    14.6    5.9    2
12.6    Jason Kidd      1999    22.5    13.3    6.7    1
12.5   Andrei Kirilenko 2004    22.6    11.6    7.5    1
12.4    Pau Gasol       2011    23.3    14.7    5.6    1
12.3    Ray Allen       2001    22.9    13.7    6.0    1
12.3    Dwight Howard   2011    26.1    14.4    5.0    2
12.3    Derrick Rose    2011    23.5    13.1    6.0    1
12.3    Brandon Roy     2009    24.0    13.5    5.7    1
12.3    Steve Francis   2001    21.6    12.2    7.0    1
12.1    Grant Hill      1999    23.9    12.0    6.2    1
12.1   Chauncey Billups 2006    23.4    15.5    4.9    1

[I've included 2015 numbers as if they're a 'done deal'.]
Obviously Jordan and Robinson, probably Malone, had better years before '98.
Is it astonishing that Chris Paul ranks above Shaq in 2000, Garnett in '04, and everyone else but LeBron?
Do these 3 metrics all favor his stats inordinately?

[italia13calcio]

PAA (my metric based on SportVu stats) likewise is pretty guard dominated - the top 5 and 8 of the top 11 are guards. To be honest, I didn't really think that it was that weird, in my mind point guard in the NBA is a pretty stacked position. But as recently as last year (the only other year for which PAA is available), PAA only had one guard in the top five and only two in the top 11. It will be interesting to see guards continue to reign or if big men will bounce back after a difficult season (due to injuries, aging, switching teams, whatever).

[Mike G]

PAA (my metric based on SportVu stats) likewise is pretty guard dominated - the top 5 and 8 of the top 11 are guards.

So you have Lillard ahead of LeBron and Davis? That seems a bit much.
My (eWins) top 6 this year are the same as xyz and WS.
If Westbrook doesn't miss any more games, going 33 mpg as he has up to now, he'll finish a solid 3rd; he can't catch Curry or Harden, unless they do miss games.

[AcrossTheCourt]

PAA (my metric based on SportVu stats) likewise is pretty guard dominated - the top 5 and 8 of the top 11 are guards.

So you have Lillard ahead of LeBron and Davis? That seems a bit much.
My (eWins) top 6 this year are the same as xyz and WS.
If Westbrook doesn't miss any more games, going 33 mpg as he has up to now, he'll finish a solid 3rd; he can't catch Curry or Harden, unless they do miss games.

Lillard's just a hair behind LeBron in RPM's WAR and has a decent lead over Davis.