Playoff series predictions

[ampersand5]

By losing to NOLA yesterday, the Spurs reduced their chances of winning in the first round from 86.9% (against Dallas) to 53.8% (Los Angeles).

Rarely do I question SAS but this is pretty jarring.

[Mike G]

The Clippers and Spurs are 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league, by SRS.
In their last 30 games, LAC went 23-7 (.767) with ORtg-DRtg = 112.2-103.6 = 8.6
In their last 25 games, SA was 21-4 (.840) with O-D = 109.4-95.8 = 13.6

Either team might give GS a run for their money; and one of them won't even get to round 2.
Since 2007-08, Chris Paul is 2nd in RS Win Shares and VORP. In playoffs, he's 14th/8th.

[Mike G]

Why are you questioning the Spurs? They weren't giving away the game: Kawhi played 38 minutes, Parker 35, Duncan 33. New Orleans needed the win more, and they got it.

[tarrazu]

By losing to NOLA yesterday, the Spurs reduced their chances of winning in the first round from 86.9% (against Dallas) to 53.8% (Los Angeles).

Rarely do I question SAS but this is pretty jarring.

The line closed SAS -5/-5.5 at New Orleans. Popovich and team publicly stated they were playing to win because they wanted to the 2 seed, which as you pointed out would have helped them immensely.

[mystic]

Here would be my prediction:

Code: Select all

Hawks     in 4:   18.27%
Hawks     in 5:   28.54%
Hawks     in 6:   19.50%
Hawks     in 7:   16.71%
Nets      in 4:    1.27%
Nets      in 5:    2.84%
Nets      in 6:    6.56%
Nets      in 7:    6.31%
Hawks     wins:   83.02%
Nets      wins:   16.98%

Cavs      in 4:   13.59%
Cavs      in 5:   24.41%
Cavs      in 6:   18.79%
Cavs      in 7:   18.50%
Celtics   in 4:    2.13%
Celtics   in 5:    4.50%
Celtics   in 6:    9.46%
Celtics   in 7:    8.61%
Cavs      wins:   75.29%
Celtics   wins:   24.71%

Bulls     in 4:    9.80%
Bulls     in 5:   20.12%
Bulls     in 6:   17.09%
Bulls     in 7:   19.24%
Bucks     in 4:    3.39%
Bucks     in 5:    6.68%
Bucks     in 6:   12.82%
Bucks     in 7:   10.86%
Bulls     wins:   66.25%
Bucks     wins:   33.75%

Raptors   in 4:    7.56%
Raptors   in 5:   16.97%
Raptors   in 6:   15.43%
Raptors   in 7:   18.98%
Wizards   in 4:    4.64%
Wizards   in 5:    8.66%
Wizards   in 6:   15.40%
Wizards   in 7:   12.37%
Raptors   wins:   58.94%
Wizards   wins:   41.06%

Warriors  in 4:   19.89%
Warriors  in 5:   29.51%
Warriors  in 6:   19.61%
Warriors  in 7:   15.92%
Pelicans  in 4:    1.08%
Pelicans  in 5:    2.48%
Pelicans  in 6:    5.79%
Pelicans  in 7:    5.73%
Warriors  wins:   84.92%
Pelicans  wins:   15.08%

Rockets   in 4:    8.14%
Rockets   in 5:   17.78%
Rockets   in 6:   15.93%
Rockets   in 7:   19.07%
Rockets   in 4:    4.28%
Mavericks in 5:    8.12%
Mavericks in 6:   14.67%
Mavericks in 7:   12.01%
Rockets   wins:   60.92%
Mavericks wins:   39.08%

Clippers  in 4:    5.43%
Clippers  in 5:   13.33%
Clippers  in 6:   13.19%
Clippers  in 7:   17.71%
Spurs     in 4:    6.59%
Spurs     in 5:   11.51%
Spurs     in 6:   18.34%
Spurs     in 7:   13.88%
Clippers  wins:   49.66%
Spurs     wins:   50.34%

Grizzlies in 4:    6.10%
Grizzlies in 5:   14.56%
Grizzlies in 6:   13.97%
Grizzlies in 7:   18.27%
Blazers   in 4:    5.86%
Blazers   in 5:   10.47%
Blazers   in 6:   17.38%
Blazers   in 7:   13.40%
Grizzlies wins:   52.90%
Blazers   wins:   47.10%

[J.E.]

Going by those and my own, we're "supposed to" bet almost all the underdogs in Vegas.

I think I might have been too conversative when doing minute projections for playoffs, will take another look tomorrow before the games start

[mystic]

Well, I personally wouldn't bet on those numbers, because the matchup analyses isn't included. When I run the numbers for that, I see a higher chance for all the favorites except the Rockets while Clippers/Spurs stay put (interesting that Splitter being out wouldn't hurt the Spurs in that matchup according to this).

For the Rockets/Mavericks series it is rather crucial whether Parsons can play or not (assuming a reasonable good level of play by him).

[Mike G]

As the (6.80 SRS) Clippers and the Spurs (6.34) take the floor in round 1, we'll be seeing a championship level series. Only 3 times in the last 15 Finals have both teams been this good.

Code: Select all

finals  West    SRS     SRS   East
2014    SAS    8.00    4.15    Mia
2013    SAS    6.67    7.03    Mia
2012    OKC    6.44    5.72    Mia
2011    Dal    4.41    6.76    Mia
2010    LAL    4.78    3.37    Bos
2009    LAL    7.11    6.49    Orl
2008    LAL    7.34    9.31    Bos
2007    SAS    8.35    3.33    Cle
2006    Dal    5.96    3.59    Mia
2005    SAS    7.84    3.31    Det
2004    LAL    4.35    5.04    Det
2003    SAS    5.65    4.42    NJN
2002    LAL    7.15    3.67    NJN
2001    LAL    3.74    3.64    Phl
2000    LAL    8.41    4.16    Ind

avg      W     6.41    4.93     E

Of course, it's the East in all but 4 years failing to put up a team with >6.00 SRS, while the West has been at 60%.
And with both SAS and LAC being especially hot in the last 1/3 of the season, it could be the best series in this postseason.

[Mike G]

I think I might have been too conversative when doing minute projections...

You're all talk ...

[Dr Positivity]

#s punch out to me that POR over MEM would be my big play if I was a betting man with LAC also looking good for their underdogs odds, though for subjective reasons obv picking them is pretty terrifying. Spurs bench has had major drop off this year, reminds me of a baseball team with lights up bullpen one title year and then the next year the injuries and HRs against start coming in.

[ampersand5]

I just realized that on 538, they are using prior informed RAPM. I think for players who have switched teams, this is untenable. When a player is now in a different system, RPM is going to be far more predictive.

[ampersand5]

it seems as if teams with a deep bench and teams that rely on getting to the line should be handicapped for their playoff projections.

[ampersand5]

By losing to NOLA yesterday, the Spurs reduced their chances of winning in the first round from 86.9% (against Dallas) to 53.8% (Los Angeles).

Rarely do I question SAS but this is pretty jarring.

Spurs did not tank against NOLA, but they definitely didn't treat it as the must-win game that it was.

[colts18]

Predicting the Conf. Finals using xRPM from 2nd round minutes

Cavs 8.6 2.3 10.8
Hawks 5.4 3.7 9.1

Rockets 3.2 3.4 6.6
Warriors 8.7 8.3 17.0

RPM thinks that the Rockets are by far the worst team in this round. They should get crushed by the Warriors. The Cavs/Hawks looks like a close series once you adjust for HCA.

[colts18]

Interesting