Possession formula

[anoraxx]

Hi, I was wondering what is the consensus value of the prefactor before FTA in possession formula for NBA? In Oliver's book he uses 0.4 with suggestion that the number should trend downwards but on the Interner I found that commonly used value is around 0.44. Also, does the number changes for the WNBA or European basketball that uses slighty different set of rules?

[Crow]

See this thread viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8927 and there are probably older ones too. Other leagues might vary. Dunno the right value.

[anoraxx]

Thank you for the link. I will assume that 0.44 is consensus value for NBA. Regarding my other question concerning the prefactor for the WNBA and European bball, I think we can assume that in both leagus there will be less bonus FTs, caused by either attacking players being less inclined to driving to the basket or by less technical free throws. So the number should be generally higher. Oliver suggests using 0.475 for CBB which suggests less bonus FTs but my overall perception of CBB say to me that in CBB there is more bonus FTs than in NBA. So now I am confused, am I wrong?

[Kevin Pelton]

The difference in the NCAA is the one-and-one, which means more trips to the free throw line where one free throw attempt equals a possession.

[anoraxx]

Okey, after giving it a second thought, CBB possession estimator is higher because there are less bonus free throws and the perception of otherwise is created by one-and-one rule. If that's is the case I am wondering why I can only find possession formulas for WNBA in which 0.44 is used when clearly higher number should be used.

In one of the older threads I found a suggestion that in the technical formula for possession calculation the coefficient 1.03 should be used instead of 1.07. Does that have any grounds?

Poss = FGA + 0.44*FTA - (ORB/(ORB+(oppTRB-oppORB)))*(FGA-FG)*1.07 + TO