Progress of Hinkie's guys

[Crow]

I see MCW has improved from a -3.1 RPM estimate last season to -2.2 this season. Wroten went from -6.1 to -3.7. K Daniels -3.2. Adelmir -2.2. Noel the 74th of 74 centers at -4.6 estimate. See much to be optimistic about them or the next picks? Embid will be a major case but one is not enough. Best RPM on team is a mid-season, previously waived free agent, Covington. And his RPM estimate is still negative. Coaching? I dunno. I hear they are fun to watch. I'm not inclined.

[Mike G]

In general they've improved from last season. But I don't count MCW among the improvers.

Code: Select all

eW+    per36 rates      Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast   e484  '14  Eff%   Sco   Reb   Ast  e484
-.10 M Carter-Williams .434   14.4   6.4   6.5   1.04      .472   16.1   6.4   5.5  1.09
.79   Luc Mbah a Moute .471   11.2   6.3   1.5    .51  Min .495    7.6   5.2   1.3   .04
.63   Tony Wroten      .499   19.8   3.5   5.1   1.12      .484   17.5   4.4   3.6   .74
.01   Henry Sims       .560   15.0   8.5   1.4    .97      .529   14.2   9.6   1.8   .97
-.05  Hollis Thompson  .495    9.0   3.9   1.3    .13      .564    9.5   4.9   1.3   .16

.34   Robert Covington .575   16.5   5.9   1.2    .92  Hou .571   16.4   5.1    .0   .67
.36   Brandon Davies   .465   10.6   6.5   2.1    .50      .466    7.6   6.2   1.4   .05
.44   Alexey Shved     .533   20.0   2.6   4.5   1.24  Min .443   11.8   4.2   3.7   .49
-.09  Chris Johnson    .422    8.6   4.7    .5    .08  Bos .531   11.5   4.5   1.3   .32
.17   Malcolm Thomas   .583    9.0  10.0   1.5    .59  Uta .515    8.2  11.9   1.0  -.03

[bchaikin]

a PG has had at least 25 starts in a season over the last 34 years (since 1981-82) 1126 times...

and you can count on both hands the number of PGs with at least 25 starts in a season since then that have shot worse overall than michael carter-williams' current 42.2 ScFG% (2s, 3s, and FTs)...

with 1 of those being rajon rondo's current 41.8% ScFG%...

oh - and carter-williams' current 4.4 TO/g are the 6th most among those 1126 times...

he's got a ways to go to improve...

[Mike G]

I see MCW has improved from a -3.1 RPM estimate last season to -2.2 this season.

That would seem to be the only known metric that shows overall improvement. I had him down just a bit last week, but he's now worse than that. His last 3 games have been statistically horrendous: 9-39 FG, 4 TO/G (though 2 of 3 were wins).
His PER is down from 15.5 to 11.2, last year to this year.
His WS/48 are down from .026 to -.051
His BPM is down from -0.3 to -2.6

These are all precipitous downturns. BPM says it's mostly his offense, and WS says it's 50/50.
His Ast% is up by 1/3, but all his shooting% are down significantly -- 3fg% from .264 to .236, 2fg% from .440 to .404, FT% .703 to .630; FTr .348 to .279; Stl% and Blk% down by 40%, TO% up 20%

It probably would be hard to find a player averaging 35 minutes with such bad offensive numbers. Early ABA, early '60s NBA ...

EDIT: It's a very short list of players with TS% < .43 and TO% > 20, and the closest to MCW's 34 mpg is Rondo this season:
http://bkref.com/tiny/kU7dP

On the other hand, no one else in the last 1.5 seasons has averaged 14-6-7
http://bkref.com/tiny/Qn87B

[Crow]

Might be interesting to see GM draft pick performance grouped sequentially. I.e. first 5-10 picks, next set, etc. Who improves steadily, who is all over the place, who never gets above average.


Hinkie is betting on draft picks and his picking of those picks but imo there is little to suggest that is going well so far.

[Crow]

I picked RPM but better to look at several metrics, use eyes, listen, etc.

[bchaikin]

but he's now worse than that.

simulation shows that currently michael carter-wlliams, on a 40 min/g and 82 game basis, is generating wins at a rate of 18-19 wins less than stephen curry, one of the largest gaps between best/worst starting PGs in a season in quite awhile...

[Mike G]

What if they're playing 32 mpg?

[bchaikin]

What if they're playing 32 mpg?

32 / 40 x 18.5 =~ 15 wins

[steveshea]

Chris Herring just wrote a piece (http://www.wsj.com/articles/knicks-prob ... 1421115415) on the Knicks and their seeming inability to develop players in recent years. This thread is not the place to debate the Knicks. However, there was a quote in that article from J.R. Smith that I think might be relevant. To quote the article, “The difference between now and [the Knicks’ 54-win season in 2012] was that we had leaders at pretty much every position,” Smith said, citing veterans like Jason Kidd, Rasheed Wallace and Kurt Thomas. “It was a lot easier then, because they all had so much love for the game to where it didn’t even feel like they were teaching.”

Should Philadelphia be trying to strike a better balance of vets and youth with their roster? Could that help the development of players like MCW, Noel, Covington, etc?

[Crow]

I dunno if it will be a major part of the plan next season but it certainly should by the season after. OKC had some teachers providing some value during its 2 year tank and then the rise.

[Mike G]

Should Philadelphia be trying to strike a better balance of vets and youth with their roster?

Shouldn't every team try to do this?

[steveshea]

Should Philadelphia be trying to strike a better balance of vets and youth with their roster?

Shouldn't every team try to do this?

Since the NBA lacks a true minor league system to stash and develop players, there are reasons why a rebuilding team might want to carry more youth on their NBA roster than might be typically recommended. My question is that for a team like Philly, would it be worth sacrificing a few roster spots, which could go to other young players that could be part of the future, to instead bring in high character and hardworking vets to help the rest of the young roster develop? I don't think the answer is obvious. More vets may mean not having the room to sign and try out a guy like Covington (who looks like he could have value for them going forward).

[Crow]

MCW stayed the same at end of season estimate, but he is gone. K Daniels worse, but gone. Wroten and Adelmir worse and still there. Noel and Covington much better and only ones of these who matter much.

[cemitten]

My Thunder fandom might be showing, but I feel like Philadelphia might be the ideal spot for Scott Brooks to land. He did a mostly great job developing talent in his tenure at OKC. Some might say he only achieved good things with exceptional talents, but I think its an unfair criticism. His "failures" are players that mostly likely shouldn't be in the league in the first place (Jeremy Lamb excepted).