APBR-DraftExpress 2015 NBA Draft Project

[ampersand5]

Hi everyone,

Draftexpress would like to post a follow up article next Monday - which means we should have everything compiled by Sunday evening at the latest. I hope everyone is able to participate.

The next article is going to focus on how a GM should take advantage of these models. This means, for each participant, we are looking for a writeup on the following (don't respond to the questions in specific but answer these themes more generally):
Which players ranked higher/lower in your model in comparison to the other models/the DX rankings. Why do you think these players faired better/worse. Do you think your rankings have any deficiencies that should be noted? If you were a GM, would your draft order be any different than the rankings provided by your model and if so, how? Expand on the description of your model as needed.

For anyone who has a model and was not involved in round one, we would love your participation. Statman, I hope to see your numbers. If anyone has the contact information of Andrew Johnson, please let me know.

the rest of the article will deal with some conceptual issues such as - the cost of drafting seniors - how important is upside - how valuable are these models - position or best player available etc.
Anyone with an opinion, ideas or insights on any of these issues, please share your thoughts so I can try and incorporate them into the article. I just started a new job this week so I will be pretty busy, but I hope to put up a google doc soon with an outline, so everyone can add their ideas/thoughts/writing into the piece.

Lastly, thank you everyone for your participation and support. I hope the next round is just as successful as the first.

[Crow]

I tweeted this link to AJ. I assume he is registered here but perhaps you could temporarily provide an email for him to use in case not?

[jessefis]

@ampersand5 - I am in for the article.

Also I made some significant changes to my models over the weekend. My numbers changed quite a bit and I haven't had time to analyze fully yet but here is my updated list. Looks like I'm on the Russell bandwagon. Payne jumped up significantly. Kaminsky and Wright are completely swayed by how much you incorporate prior seasons and in this version I incorporate more - I'm going to dig into this more. My correlation with draft express being so high is because I am using their board as the estimation for actual draft order.

I'll have more updates to this list going forward without a doubt as I explore more.

1,D'Angelo Russell
2,Karl-Anthony Towns
3,Cameron Payne
4,Justise Winslow
5,Stanley Johnson
6,Willie Cauley-Stein
7,Jahlil Okafor
8,Tyus Jones
9,R.J. Hunter
10,Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
11,Myles Turner
12,Kelly Oubre
13,Kevon Looney
14,Christian Wood
15,Jerian Grant
16,Chris McCullough
17,Trey Lyles
18,Delon Wright
19,Bobby Portis
20,Justin Anderson
21,Robert Upshaw
22,Devin Booker
23,Jarell Martin
24,Frank Kaminsky
25,Andrew Harrison
26,Dakari Johnson
27,Rashad Vaughn
28,Richaun Holmes
29,Sam Dekker
30,Jordan Mickey
31,Terry Rozier
32,J.P. Tokoto
33,Cliff Alexander
34,Seth Tuttle
35,Montrezl Harrell
36,Jonathan Holmes
37,Anthony Brown
38,Rakeem Christmas
39,Michael Frazier
40,Michael Qualls
41,T.J. McConnell
42,Tyler Harvey
43,Joseph Young
44,Aaron White
45,Darrun Hilliard
46,Norman Powell
47,Olivier Hanlan
48,Pat Connaughton
49,Wesley Saunders
50,Vince Hunter
51,Larry Nance
52,Derrick Marks
53,Alan Williams
54,Chris Walker
55,Corey Hawkins
56,Josh Richardson
57,Aaron Harrison
58,Shannon Scott
59,Keifer Sykes
60,Branden Dawson
61,Ryan Boatright
62,Quinn Cook
63,Brandon Ashley
64,Dezmine Wells
65,Travis Trice
66,Chasson Randle
67,Treveon Graham
68,Joshua Smith
69,Julian Washburn
70,Marcus Thornton
71,Terran Petteway
72,Le'Bryan Nash
73,TaShawn Thomas
74,Juwan Staten
75,D.J. Newbill

[jessefis]

Along with my updated board I would also like to point you to a new tool we have at tothemean.com which allows you to compare these analytic draft models in a better way than a shared google doc. We also allow you to compare with some more well known projections. We have already added the draft boards posted here (let us know if you dont want to be included or have updated data). Check out our post with details here:
http://www.tothemean.com/2015/05/31/nba ... odels.html
Here is a link to the actual tool:
http://www.tothemean.com/tools/draft-models/

Let us know if you have any feedback/suggestions. We have a long list already but feedback might help prioritize. Enjoy.

[nrestifo]

Along with my updated board I would also like to point you to a new tool we have at tothemean.com which allows you to compare these analytic draft models in a better way than a shared google doc. We also allow you to compare with some more well known projections. We have already added the draft boards posted here (let us know if you dont want to be included or have updated data). Check out our post with details here:
http://www.tothemean.com/2015/05/31/nba ... odels.html
Here is a link to the actual tool:
http://www.tothemean.com/tools/draft-models/

Let us know if you have any feedback/suggestions. We have a long list already but feedback might help prioritize. Enjoy.

This is an awesome tool! It looks great!

I too, have been tinkering with different stuff, as well as added my Euro aspect, so I'd love to update my rankings soon for this tool and/or the next DX article. However, if it's preferred, I'd be happy to write about the older model for the next DX article. Let me know.

[Statman]

Along with my updated board I would also like to point you to a new tool we have at tothemean.com which allows you to compare these analytic draft models in a better way than a shared google doc. We also allow you to compare with some more well known projections. We have already added the draft boards posted here (let us know if you dont want to be included or have updated data). Check out our post with details here:
http://www.tothemean.com/2015/05/31/nba ... odels.html
Here is a link to the actual tool:
http://www.tothemean.com/tools/draft-models/

Let us know if you have any feedback/suggestions. We have a long list already but feedback might help prioritize. Enjoy.

Hey Jesse & Ampersand - I'm thinking maybe every model should be adjusted to a 0 to 100 base for every prospect based on their results - so as to best compile players who some models REALLY love (with high "rating" results but may be undervalued my a normal general consensus). Say if a model has Towns, Russell, & Okafor as MUCH better than the #4 guy - this would get reflected much better in a 0 to 100 scale than just ranking position (the gap between #3 & #4 might be much larger than #4 to #15?). There are a number of guys in the 75 player pool who I'll project with 0 future NBA WAR (never better than NBA replacement level), ordering those guys (I dunno, maybe 40 on - don't know yet) seems weird.

I like how Nick threw this together last minute before the draft last year: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

We get enough models - maybe throw out a high low (and EVERY prospect having a 0 to 100 score in every model unlike the spreadsheet I linked)- I think that approach would give us the best consensus.

Now - if you all were already doing this - as you were. I might have missed it, my mind is all over the place recently.

[Statman]

For anyone who has a model and was not involved in round one, we would love your participation. Statman, I hope to see your numbers. If anyone has the contact information of Andrew Johnson, please let me know.

I just sent him a message on twitter also. We'll see.

I plan on being a part of this unless I get some NBA job offer in the next week. Since I'm not pounding doors much yet - that is HIGHLY unlikely. You never know - maybe Roland Beech & Mark Cuban will call. Or, probably not.....

Who are we sending a write up to? Will we have a most recent updated consensus come Sunday so as to do a proper write up on our specific sleepers/overrated guys that night?

[DSMok1]

I agree that for averaging multiple models, averaging rankings is rarely a good idea.

[Crow]

I was for tracking of ratings or scaled ratings beginning on page 2. Kinda late now, but might still be worth it.

[ampersand5]

To respond to a few points -

I thought about doing a 0-100 ranking before. I looked at Nick's googlesheet from last year and didn't like how users had such a large variance in the distribution of player scores. This can skew things significantly.
You guys know more about this than I do - if you think that having a 0-100 score is materially better than just using a 1-75 ranking, then we can do so as we have each user's scores.
(I've never adjusted rankings before to a 0-100 scale, so please let me know if it's challenging to do so)

For everyone who wants to update their rankings - nick, jesse etc - you can do so.

Statman. I am already planning on getting rid of the highest/lowest score for each player.

In regards to publishing the info - you can either email it to me (click on the 'about me' page of my site), PM me, or post it on the APBR board.

Now that Nick's doing euro prospects, we will have rankings on these players from Layne, Nick and Masseffectlenk (and Andrew Johnson/Pelton - but I'm not sure if we can use their information). Jonathan Givony wants to have some sort of spotlight on the euro prospects (either in this article or another). Does anyone think this is enough information to include Euros in the feature? Does anyone have suggestions or ideas on the best way this could be done?

Thanks for all of your assistance, effort and enthusiasm!

[AJbaskets]

Hey guys, thanks for reaching out to me, I'll go back through the thread to catch up with the discussion. Here's my PAWS model list as updated this morning.

"PAWS-RSCI
RANK" Player PAWS-RSCI
1 Jahlil Okafor 8.04
2 Karl Towns 7.75
3 Tyus Jones 7.29
4 D Angelo Russell6.99
5 Kevon Looney 6.58
6 Frank Kaminsky 6.21
7 Delon Wright 6.16
8 Stanley Johnson 6.12
9 Myles Turner 6.11
10 Cliff Alexander 6.03
11 Bobby Portis 5.99
12 Justise Winslow 5.95
13 Aleksandar Vezenkov 5.81
14 Jerian Grant 5.41
15 Branden Dawson 5.38
16 Kelly Oubre 5.35
17 Robert Upshaw 5.29
18 Alan Williams 5.24
19 Montrezl Harrell 5.12
20 Sam Dekker 5.1
21 Jarvis Threatt 5.05
22 Willie Cauley 5.03
23 Dakari Johnson 4.93
24 R.J. Hunter 4.9
25 Aaron White 4.85
26 J.P. Tokoto 4.83
27 Devin Booker 4.79
28 Cameron Payne 4.74
29 Trey Lyles 4.72
30 Mario Hezonja 4.6
31 T.J. McConnell 4.52
32 Rondae Hollis 4.48
33 Christian Wood 4.48
34 Nikola Milutinov 4.48
35 Larry Nance 4.41
36 Rashad Vaughn 4.38
37 Richaun Holmes 4.34
38 Guillermo Hernangomez 4.31
39 Keifer Sykes 4.26
40 TaShawn Thomas 4.19
41 Kristaps Porzingis 4.16
42 Luka Mitrovic 4.06
43 Pat Connaughton 4.04
44 Mouhammadou Jaiteh 3.92
45 Chris McCullough 3.88
46 Michael Frazier 3.86
47 Vince Hunter 3.8
48 Darrun Hilliard 3.76
49 Daniel Diez 3.73
50 Tyler Harvey 3.72
51 Treveon Graham 3.7
52 Cedi Osman 3.7
53 Terry Rozier 3.68
54 Joseph Young 3.58
55 Jordan Mickey 3.57
56 Alberto Abalde 3.5
57 Jonathan Holmes 3.47
58 Aaron Harrison 3.42
59 Jarell Martin 3.36
60 Michael Qualls 3.28

[Crow]

Good. Can you extend to the 75 name set?

[Crow]

Should the regression of draft picks 23 yrs and older be reduced or eliminated for interior players? I think 17 of the 20 best first year performances on this list http://bkref.com/tiny/P9BrJ are interior players. And it is still 18 of top 20 in yr 3. My minute levels might but too low, but... something to consider and consistent with the conventional wisdom that bigs are better in mid20s than before.

Does the age curve for players really say more about players at different ages or the pick habits of teams, their player development skills that might vary with age, their level of opportunity and patience given, etc. Do teams tend to perform about the same with the age groups or are there stars and trailers with different age groups? Similar analysis could be done by position / cluster or for the internationals. For majors vs mid-majors (and minors)? As stated before, should age be a completely separate step or highly context cognizant and integrated rather than separate?

[Crow]

Jesse would you be interested in adding a 1st year performance check to your site on last season's models with correlation of model and avg. to that performance (some blend of BPM, RPM, DRE, WS/48)?

[Crow]

Jonathan, are you planning or willing to write about how your derive your draft ratings? Is the blend of scout opinion, measurable and stats / metrics holistic or do you scores and weights to any degree to pull them together? Anything you've gleaned from NBA staff about how holistic or scores and weights driven they are in their rankings? I understand the mock transforms the ratings into a different list.


Can you get any NBA scouts, analysts, upper management or former such to comment on the models for attribution or anonymously?

How much do you think hardcore internet draft analysis affects insider ratings, ranking, picks? Does more casual social media have impact as well? Are teams, internet sites and fans converging on evaluation methods and conclusions, staying around the same level of similarity or getting more different?

Do any teams have quantitative analysts (not scouts) exclusively devoted to draft analysis or more generally player ratings? Is there much movement of such guys between teams or up the ladder? Has anyone tried a performance bonus system to reward and attract the best talent?

What do you think the level of use and helpfulness of brain typing / personality evaluation is? Might Dr Ilardi be willing to answer any questions about the topic from his experience and training? Does anyone give a quantitative weight to inadequate SATs for timely admission, arrests, family arrests, employment, income, educational achievement, team suspensions, technicals, ejections, game fights, transfers, etc.?
Any weight to agent pursuit or agent selection? Shoe company interest? For second rounders, international team interest?

Is there anything else teams use that the modelers didn't mention? Are top performances and / or performances against top team and individual performances weighted more heavily by teams, you or from what you can tell these models?